A new round of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia was held in Istanbul today. After 34 days from the beginning of the Russian invasion, the world put on pink glasses at the first possibility of progress towards a truce. What do we actually know about the negotiations and is there any news?
It should be reminded that the war actually started in 2014, and that in February 2022 there was a complete escalation with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. While the Russian authorities are carrying out complete censorship of the media and control of public opinion (a pure feature of the totalitarian regime), they sarcastically call total war a “special operation”. On the first day of the invasion, Putin stressed that he wanted to denazify (whatever that meant) and demilitarize Ukraine. In the days that followed, he even argued that Ukraine should be careful not to lose its statehood. Many analysts and the world public expected a rapid collapse of Ukraine. This would probably have fewer casualties on both sides as short-term effects, but a long-term area of great instability and crisis in Eastern Europe. It is good for the Ukrainians at the moment that they have managed to preserve the nation and statehood with great sacrifices.
Thanks to years of Ukrainian preparation and the quick and generous help of the West, Ukrainian defenders are offering fierce resistance. Although we could see reports of the enormous problems of the Russian army, they still had limited success in conquering Ukrainian territory. Their reserves of ammunition and armaments, whatever they may be, allow them to wage a total war for a long time. Unfortunately, the scenes we saw in the Russian intervention in Syria are repeated in Ukraine (a more striking example is the city of Mariupol).
If you are interested in quality and almost daily analysis of events in Ukraine, I recommend following Tom Cooper.
So, what we learned after today’s negotiations? The Ukrainian side, as it has been for some time, says that they are ready for neutrality. The Russian side no longer mentions denazification and demilitarization, but of course it still insists on moving away from NATO and banning foreign military bases on the territory of Ukraine. What sounds particularly interesting is the announcement of Russia’s withdrawal from northern Ukraine.
This is not news because, as it seems, it has been going on for several days. Only this story the Russians wrap in a fine package. They put the withdrawal on the scales as their offer of a truce, when in fact it is a tactical necessity. Having lost a considerable amount of technique and manpower this is an opportunity for them to regroup. And at the same time on the “domestic front” they are showing readiness for an agreement and continue to portray themselves as pacifists. This makes it difficult for Ukrainians in many ways. The Ukrainians are currently trying to destroy the retreat of the Russian army in limited actions, and if the Russians declare a withdrawal, it turns out that the Ukrainians are against “peaceful Russians in the withdrawal”. On the other hand, it is very easy to expect that the Russian units that have withdrawn will be filled with new equipment and personnel, and we will see them on the battlefields of the separatist provinces in a few days or weeks.
The issue for which there is no solution is the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Crimea, Donbass and Luhansk have no future as independent entities. An apparent possibility is their entry into the Russian Federation. This is, again, seemingly the easiest solution for Putin, but it will continue to bring diplomatic embarrassment and the extension of sanctions. Ukrainians, after so many human and material losses, cannot give up their territorial integrity. It is almost certain that I cannot or cannot liberate these areas on my own. An immediate truce may be reached with some kind of Ukrainian vision of returning to the territorial framework, but a military solution to this problem is not likely. The division of Ukraine according to some Korean or German model is not conceivable.
And what will happen next? The continuation of the war in Ukraine is certain. The only question is to what extent and for how many years it will last. I intentionally wrote years, not months because they probably won’t have a quick climax. Both countries will have long-term economic consequences. Ukraine is in far bigger trouble here because it has experienced the destruction of significant infrastructure, lost another part of its valuable area and what is the question of what it can start from production. Even in the liberated areas, it will take time to remove landmines and explosives.
