Why T-Mobile is at a Crossroads

T-Mobile US will be under close watch as the year comes to a close.

T-Mobile will report Q3 earnings early tomorrow morning, final suscriber growth numbers will under close watch as well as ARPU (Average revenue per user). Here are a few things to look forward to:

  • Large increase in branded postpaid subscribers(most valuable type of customer)on the backend of the quarter, iPhone launch. (Looking for: 1.3 million adds)
  • Large increase in general subscribers this is caused by: Unique large data promotions, continued improvements in the network, and the iPhone launch. (Looking for 2.4–2.5 million adds)
  • Customers without contracts. As contracts start to dissappear from the market, T-Mobile is favored due to there unique “Un-Carrier” movements.

Why T-Mobile needs Dish

Spectrum. Spectrum. Spectrum.

Dish has made significant investments in spectrum over the past few years and currently owns licenses to approximately 75 MHz of spectrum nationwide, covering over 23 billion MHz-POPs — Forbes

It is no secret Dish owns a massive amount of spectrum(Dish is actually required to put their spectrum to use before 2017). If you guesssed that Dish will be starting their own mobile network, you’re wrong. As 2017 nears, investors are beginning to clamer for answers.

That’s where T-Mobile comes in.

T-Mobile has one major thing in common with Dish: 700mHz spectrum ownership. T-Mobile has been making massive upgrades to their LTE network, all of which have focused around their new 700mHz spectrum. Dish has aqquired an absolutely massive amount of spectrum recently (Mostly in the 700mHz bands) and needs to put it to work. T-Mobile has been taking a massive amount of customers in the past few years and needs to continue to roll out an advanced vast network. Combining T-Mobile’s infastructure with new advanced spectrum would turn T-Mobile’s network into a “Verizon grade” network.

So what would T-Mobile offer dish in return?

Dish has been flailing for years. Customers has been fleeing for better offerings to the likes of Comcast and DirecTV(Now AT&T). T-Mobile’s John Legere’s team has a prooven track record of an unprecedented level customer service, marketing, and product offerings. Legere has built T-Mobile from a colapsing afterthought in the wireless industry, to an industry shaker and mover. Legere and his crack team could easily turn Dish into a valuable asset. Dish could become the platform for next generation television and T-Mobile would surely make sure it is mobile.

Without Dish, T-Mobile will find itself digging deep into their pockets to buy low band spectrum. Without T-Mobile, Dish could find themselves with a treasure chest full of spectrum they can’t use and a continually failing TV service.

Clearly, T-Mobile and Dish could really benefit from a merger. One important thing to decide: does Legere or Ergen get to become CEO?

I’m definitely on team Legere!