Super Bowl 50 Could be a Blowout

No matter which team you’re rooting for in Super Bowl 50, be it the Carolina Panthers or the Denver Broncos, everyone wants to see a good game. Our greatest hope is that it will be an exciting match decided in the last seconds by plays that will leave fans in awe and with players and referees able to leave the field with their heads held high.

Unfortunately, Sunday’s match up has the distict possibility of being a blowout that will be decided early causing many of us to switch channels or only stick it out to see Rihanna, Cold Play and the commercials.

Although there is no sure thing, and teams often rise to the occasion, their are many indications that this game could be a serious mismatch. The Panthers enter the game as six point favorites. I suspect it should be much more. With their two playoff wins, Carolina is now 17–1. In both of those playoff games the Panthers had leads of over 30 points against strong teams: the Seattle Seahawks and the Arizona Cardinals. The Broncos two victories leave them at 14–4, but not able to be very proud about it. Denver beat New England in the AFC Championship game mostly due to a missed extra point. Even without wide receiver Antonio Brown and runnings Le’Veon Bell and DeAngelo Williams, injured Steeler quarterback Ben Roethlisberger clearly outplayed Denver’s Peyton Manning for most of their divisional playoff game a week earlier. But the old pro came through in the clutch with a late touchdown pass and two point conversation. Nevertheless, if not for a fortuitous forced fumble by defensive back Bradley Roby on Pittsburgh’s Fitzgerald Toussaint that was covered up by DeMarcus Ware, we’d probably be watching the Steelers this weekend.

This week’s matchup against the Panthers won’t be so easy for the Broncos. The Panthers sport one of the toughest defenses and the most prolific offense of the 2015 season with the team scoring 500 points overall. Most importantly, they have MVP quarterback Cam Newton who had his best season ever and is in his prime. Newton threw for 35 touchdowns with just 10 interceptions and a 99.4 QB rating despite the fact that his wide receivers are average at best. Just as importantly, Newton led all quarterbacks in rushing with 636 yards on 132 carries and 10 touchdowns. No player in the lineup on Sunday scored more touchdowns during the season or rushed for as many first downs as Newton. Only one player tied with him for touchdowns, teammate Ted Ginn Jr. As a comparison, the top touchdown maker for the Broncos was running back Ronnie Hillman with 7, but two Panthers, tight end Greg Olsen and running back Jonathan Stewart, scored just as many.

The Broncos scored a very pedestrian 350 points during the season which must be attributed in large part to lackluster quarterback play. In contrast to Newton, Peyton Manning is coming off the worst season of his otherwise illustrious NFL career. Manning threw only nine touchdown pass with 17 interceptions and finished with a QB rating of 67.9. Unlike Newton who has been poetry in motion all season, Manning is a still life, a boring one at that. Of all the starting quarterbacks in 2015, Manning had the fewest yards rushing: minus 6. Bronco backup quarterback Brock Osweiler outpaced Manning in nearly every statistical category this season. Nevertheless, Manning will get the start on Sunday. Unfortunately for the Broncos, his 67.9 QB rating is the worst of any Super Bowl starting quarterback since Tony Eason (67.5) started for New England Patriots 30 years ago in a 46–10 loss to the Chicago Bears following the 1985 season. Eason was replaced early in that game by teammate Steve Grogan. If Manning can’t keep the Broncos in the game on Sunday, he might face the same fate with Osweiler waiting in the wings. On the bright side from the Broncos’ point of view, Manning hasn’t been the turnover machine he was earlier in the season and he has yet to through an interception thus far in the playoffs.

The Broncos have already been the losers in three of the five biggest blowouts in Super Bowl history. Denver lost to Washington 42–10 in Super Bowl XX following the 1987 season. Two years later they were pasted 55–10 by the San Francisco 49ers in the worst Super Bowl massacre ever. Super Bowl XLVIII following the 2013 season was little better with the Broncos falling to the Seattle Seahawks 43–8 in a game in which the first snap from center flew past Peyton Manning resulting in a safety,

For the Broncos to win, or even stay in the game for long, their defense will need to be superb. If Cam Newton is not harried mercilessly, all is lost. Newton is capable of picking a defense apart even with a below par group of wide receivers. He is also capable of hitting wide receiver Ted Ginn and tight end Greg Olsen for big yards at any time. Luckily, the Broncos have pass rushing talent to keep the pressure on with outstanding outside linebackers Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware leading the way aided by Derek Wolfe, Shaquil Barrett and Malik Jackson. But they must also keep Newton contained otherwise he will murder them with his running ability.

The Panthers have the advantage over the Broncos in most areas of play. Check out the individual stats below. The Panthers have the clear advantage in passing statistics. The running backs are fairly equal but Newton’s superiority over the Denver quarterbacks in running the football gives the advantage to the Panthers in rushing. DeMaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders provide an advantage to Denver at wide receiver, but the Panthers Greg Olsen is superior to Owen Daniels at tight end. Denver might have an advantage in place kicking but Carolina is better at punting. The Panthers 500 points were the best in the league compared to the Broncos 350. Defensively both teams were tough with the Broncos allowing 296 points and the Panthers 308. The difference is less than a point per game: advantage none. The kickoff returners of both teams were comparable. The Broncos Omar Bolden is a dangerous punt returner, but he had only five returns all year, albeit with one going 83 yards for a touchdown. Ted Ginn Jr. returns many more balls and is equally dangerous, so advantage Panthers. The Carolina defense had a league best 24 interceptions compared to just 14 for Denver: advantage Panthers. But Denver sacked quarterbacks 52 times compared to 44 sacks by Carolina: advantage Broncos. Both teams forced 22 fumbles and Carolina recovered 15 fumbles versus 13 by Denver: advantage none.

For Denver to win, I think it will need to be a relatively low scoring game and the Broncos defense will need to force Cam Newton into multiple errors. I can’t see Manning or Osweiler putting many points on the board against the Panther defense. If Manning is forced to pass downfield often, I expect the Panther ballhawks will have a big day. And while the Broncos led the league in sacks, I don’t think they will be able to stop Newton from having a big game. Newton and the Panthers blew both the Seahawks and the Cardinals out of the water early in their games earlier in the playoffs. It is very possible that the Broncos might meet the same fate. This all leads to the sad conclusion that Peyton Manning’s career could end on a down note. However, as it now stands, nothing is known for sure. That’s why they play the game.

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