While I agree with your stages of hedging really being mostly speculation and that no alt is likely to ever overtake bitcoin in its main use use as a method of transferring value over the internet I don’t see your logic leading solidly to your conclusion based on reality as things stand.
Your conclusion follows from two assumptions that just don’t stack up: that bitcoin will integrate any useful feature of an alt and that “There is a strong possibility that some entrepreneur would create a similar service based on Bitcoin”
The development of bitcoin is largely stalled and the main outstanding bug hasn’t been fixed after 2 years with a politically motivated group actively blocking it. And I’m talking about just malleability not necessarily segwit. So the chances of bitcoin adopting alt features is very slim, rightly so as you say, to minimise attach surfaces.
Secondly what motivation do purely profit driven entrepreneurs with a genuine alt coin use have to build something on Bitcoin?
- They need to deal with a fixed set of rules that they could alter to fit their needs if they run their own chain.
- The need to deal with high fees and confirmation times.
- They are far more likely to be the target of hackers.
- Why rely on gaining real customers now when they can raise millions instantly from an ICO and hold back a premine or take a cut like zcash and use that to gain customers later or code deflationary coin that will go up in value?
- They need to take a barrage of abuse from bitcoin trolls if they stick their next out to market anything to bitcoin holders. Look at the abuse that Ryan Charles and Erik Voorhees have had to deal with while those behind Steemit are barely known.
Meanwhile Jed McCaleb, Evan Duffield and those who went the alt coin route are quietly enjoying their millions while anyone who built a business on bitcoin is scrambling around trying to play peacemaker between two armies of trolls who have now taken sides to the point that they consider it war.
What you wrote might have been true two years ago but among the stalled scaling debate, political battle for power and an alt coin bubble that has reached critical mass the incentives are now to go alt.