Hello Paul, Great analysis and a lot of “food for thought”…
Bitcoin TV


I think that the Rodrigue chart has applied it self very well during each of the bubbles I highlighted and will probably apply again if we do get another.

If you take the 2010/11 bubble we can safely say that bitcoin was definitely in stealth mode (awareness and development limited to very niche forums and coders). The first rise in price to $1.10 coincided with the launch of The Silk Road in Feb 11 (Take-Off) which took it into its first “Awareness Phase” , lifting the price further until “Media Attention” hit with the Wired article on 1st June ‘11 which precisely triggered the first “Mania Phase” as it spike for ~$5.50 to $31.90 and subsequent “Blow off Phase”.

In this cycle awareness was still very much restricted to a very small community with the media attention limited to a very niche publication.

The bubble/crash itself broadened awareness (e.g. Bitcoin & Silk Road get a mention of Channel 4 News (UK) in Sep ’11) and simply started fanning the flame for the next bubble as newcomers took time to digest and understand the tech (start of a new but broader “Stealth Phase”) whilst the old timers were suffering their “Trough of Disillusionment” in Garner terms.

Then just simply rinse/repeat at a larger scale for the 2013 bubble.

However, this time, the “Awareness Phase” starts filtering out from a wider fan base when compared with the early 2011 equivalent. This time, rather than The Silk Road fanning the flames we had the likes of Reddit announcing their acceptance of bitcoin for reddit gold and the Cyprus Crisis (Take Off) whilst the “Media Attention” started to the reach the mainstream press and, ironically, the final “Mania Phase” being triggered by the shuttering of The Silk Road until every news outlet in the world was talking about it until even financial institutions sat up and took note — just as ‘Blow Off Phase” #2 hit.

And whilst bitcoiners everywhere struggled through their second “Trough of Disillusionment”, the financial institutions entered their own “Stealth Phase” as they experiment with “Blockchain Not Bitcoin” — leading them to the conclusion that bitcoin is “maybe a real thing” (reflected in the way that bitcoin being taken more seriously than ever in the financial press).

And if they do decide it really is a thing — cue bubble #3 :)