BTC drops more than $1100 in a day to $6300, where can it go from here?

Coinvision
Sep 6, 2018 · 3 min read

BTC price sits at $6300 today after a ruthless move that started yesterday, removing practically 2 weeks of gains since the last short-term bottom and, once again, it fell as soon as it was near this bear market’s downtrend diagonal line.

Price pierced the weekly support, sitting around the accumulation zone at $6300-$6400. To hold this area and go back up it must hold price around $6200 and go sideways a few days to allow re-accumulation, these moves have a last resort as while it doesn’t make a lower low relative to the last $5900, there’s still some hope the bulls try to break the downtrend again.

If price breaks $6000-$6200 down with confirmation, we expect to revisit the levels of $5800-$5900 again, the monthly chart still has support on the 21-day exponential moving average. If price confirms above $6700 again, $6800-$6900 is the target.

The September ruling on SolidX-VanEck ETF might be the catalyst for the next run/drop in price.

Reasons for this dump can be resumed to a few reasons:

  • Technical price pattern and an exhaustion of buyers failing to pierce $7400 saw a major corrective move to $6900 (a healthy one, we can say)
  • It could have been anticipated by the amount of shorts pilling up which could have also have lead to a short squeeze — some that had tight stop-losses where squeezed — but some negative news arise and have stopped the major squeeze to happen by instead accelerating the dump, news like Goldman Sachs holding their crypto trading desk and speculation on a Silk Road +15000 BTC wallet movements to exchanges and (yet again) increasing Tether manipulation rumors.
  • Important lesson: Strong short squeezes have high probability of happening when no or not enough relevant negative news are happening and when price is over-extended or in for a correction, price tends to fall hard amidst bad news and over-extended price action. Vice-versa for longs.

1-Day chart:
* https://www.tradingview.com/x/RyarLItd/ * MACD crossing down, the Wavetrend on the 1-day indicates further downside and the DMI is crossing to bearish, but the SRSI being oversold and RSI still on uptrend on the 2-day and 3-day charts makes this an indecisive zone for now and a possible sideways to $6000-$6200 as the zones to be looking at.

* Similar movement like in July 10th is likely but not probable.

News that could have potentially triggered the drop: * Goldman Sachs drops plans to open Crypto trading desk:

* https://cointelegraph.com/news/business-insider-goldman-sachs-drops-plans-to-open-crypto-trading-desk

* Silk Road 15730 BTC wallet movements:

* https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-btc-flash-drops-within-30-minutes-6900-silk-road/

Safe trading!


Originally published at www.coinvision.co.

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