Why Trump’s COVID Speeches Created a Market Roller Coaster and a Crisis of Confidence
By: Adam Galinsky, Chair of the Management Division at the Columbia Business School and co-author of the book, Friend & Foe.
We are in a COVID crisis. And with any crisis, especially one marked by uncertainty, people look to leadership for a path forward. But when leaders fail to provide that guidance, powerlessness prevails. I’ve found that in crises people fill voids of strong leadership with conspiracies and superstitions, further fueling a sense of losing control and panic.
Over the past decade, I’ve created a simple yet efficient formula that leaders need to use to carry people through any crisis. This formula can also explain why President Donald Trump’s three separate speeches in less than a week sent stocks up and down with the frequency of a steep roller coaster. From his primetime speech failing to reassure a fearful public and sending the stock market panicking to his Friday afternoon speech sending the stock market soaring to his Sunday proclamations sending the market into a downward spiral all over again — words matter. Reflecting on his speeches, even the loyal advocate of the President, Brit Hume of Fox News, tweeted, “[Trump’s] own statements have been rambling, boastful, vague, and imprecise.”
Let’s start with what is needed right now from a public health perspective: Reduce the spread of the virus and protect the most vulnerable members of society. The goal is to flatten the curve, to spread the infection rate out over time so that the number of infections never exceed the health care capacity of the country. As epidemiologists have pointed out, social distancing and personal hygiene are two clear behaviors that can flatten the curve.
The presidential bully pulpit has to be the starting point for flattening the curve. I’ve studied what makes a speech inspiring and how a speaker can get a population to take action to reduce a crisis. In doing so, I’ve created an equation that can help anyone QORC a crisis back into its bottle: be Quick, Open, Responsible, and Committed to a path forward.
When danger looms, leaders need to respond quickly; when mistakes happen, apologize immediately. Speed matters both operationally but also symbolically. You never want to be late, which may already be the case in countering COVID-19.
Leaders need to be completely open and candid about what is happening, acknowledging even the most despairing information. Although numerous governors, from Washington to New York to Georgia, have detailed the harsh reality on the ground, President Trump has continued to downplay the seriousness of COVID-19, “Relax, we’re doing great, it all will pass.”
Leaders need to take responsibility both for their contributions to the crisis and for resolving it. Taking responsibility increases credibility, which makes people confident that their leader is in control of next steps. Indeed, research shows that when CEOs take responsibility for negative events, their stock prices increase the next year. Even after Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, testified in a congressional hearing about inadequate testing, “That is a failing. It is a failing. Let’s admit it,” Trump continued to deny accountability on Friday afternoon when he declared, “I don’t take responsibility at all” for the pandemic office closing last year.
Finally, leaders need to commit to and present a clear path forward. They need to infuse it with optimism and a sense of purpose, but also lay out that path with sufficient detail. This is where experts are so important: They have the knowledge to know what will work and what won’t. President Trump’s prime-time address on the COVID-19 crisis sent the financial markets tumbling because his path forward was riddled with errors (e.g., he erroneously said goods and trade with Europe were banned) and incomplete information (e.g., American citizens were, in fact, exempt from his travel ban).
So, what should Trump’s speeches look like?
First, he needs to be quicker, responding with greater speed to changing circumstances. His briefings need to be daily.
He needs to openly and accurately describe the present problems and vividly describe the fears people were currently experiencing.
He needs to project responsibility. That means accepting responsibility for the past but also fully accepting responsibility going forward.
And he needs to connect that current reality to his committed path forward. He should detail the precise steps to be taken to increase testing. He should personally cancel events of more than 10 people as many governors and other Heads of State have. He should highlight how to get consumers more soap and sanitizer. And along the way, he needs to have experts follow-up with even more details on the plan going forward.
There are additional features of speeches that can inspire crisis-reducing action: Being personal and inclusive. People wanted to know how the situation is affecting Trump himself or his loved ones. This is what Georgia Governor Brian Kemp did when referencing his mother during a press conference. And they wanted to fell included, that Trump is speaking to them. From the beginning, Trump should have described how the virus is affecting all Americans, regardless of race or location or ideology.
Integrating all of these elements, inspiring speeches, in and out of a crisis, have a purposeful theme that gets repeated over and over again, just as most songs have a chorus, a refrain. President Trump might repeatedly invoke “flattening the curve”. Or he might have consistently mention a united America, “Although we need to social distance ourselves, we also need to come together as one country.” These would be the same across all his briefings and speeches.
We don’t know when this crisis will end. But we do know the necessary steps and actions leaders can take to expedite its timely demise. Effectively resolving a crisis can also lead to a better world. Maybe after this crisis has receded, we can be one America again, a nation with the perfect curve.
