Next for Russia: Collapse, or Revolution?
Russia is on the brink of disaster. What kind of disaster matters a lot.
Collapse and/or revolution
Russia’s economy is weak, propped up by savings that are running out, facing ruinous inflation. Will it collapse?
Russia’s oligarchs are facing major losses, including a literal fire sale of oil infrastructure following the destruction of the Proletarsk depot with $200M of fuel. Will they revolt?
Russia’s infrastructure is weak, hurt by sanctions, a lack of workers, corruption, theft, sabotage, military attack, and neglect. Will it collapse?
Russia’s people are oppressed and suffering, and now they see that the government can’t keep foreign troops off Russian soil. Will they revolt?
Russia’s military is weak, drained by years of shambolic war, propped up by Soviet stockpiles that are running out. Will it collapse? Or will part of it revolt, as Prigozhin did, but more successfully?
It seems likely that Moscow will lose at least some regions. Chechnya, Vladivostok, Belarus, and maybe Kaliningrad are candidates for this — by different mechanisms, of course, but the result would be that Russia gets weaker and looks weaker. This wouldn’t necessarily cause a collapse or even a change of government, but it might.
In some of the collapse scenarios, there would be no central governance for a while. In a revolt, there would be — at least at first, though a new Russian government can easily evolve into collapse or civil war.
What about the nukes?
In a revolt, the new government will surely keep its nukes, to the extent it can. Of course, in the inevitable disorder, some of them may go missing. Dylan Combellick points out that Russia is already removing the guards on its nuclear installations to feed them to the meat assaults in Ukraine.
In a collapse, the nukes will be under local control — either the local government, or whichever special-ops team gets there first. If I were a local government holding nukes amid a collapse, I would immediately try to sell them to either Europe or China, depending on who I wanted to ally with. Basically, the deal Ukraine thought it was getting when it gave up its nukes after independence. It didn’t work out like Ukraine thought, but that’s Russias’s fault, and the remains of Russia would take decades to recover from a collapse. There may be other possible deals, but none of them look nearly as good.
What about Ukraine?
Once Putin’s government is gone, I really don’t see Russia staying in Ukraine for long. The forces pushing Russia toward collapse will not reverse until Russia leaves Ukraine. A new Russian government might not believe this, but they will find out soon enough just what a precarious position they have inherited. To avoid collapse, they will have to pull out for at least a few years.
In the longer term, Ukraine will probably be safer if Russia collapses. It will take a collapsed Russia longer to recover, and the remnants will have a mix of purposes and internal conflicts. If Moscow is weakened enough, it may be decades or longer before it again becomes capable of a WWII style rampage. And if most of the nukes are gone (through lack of maintenance or trading them away), the next Steppe Warrior invasion will be a lot easier to stop.
Reparations — I don’t know in what scenarios Russia, or former Russia, might ever pay for the trillion dollars (or more) of damage they have done to Ukraine. A new Russian government might pay a bit in exchange for reduced sanctions, but I don’t expect that to last long. Russia will be an economic and demographic basket case, and their problems plus their corruption plus the rest of the world’s corruption means Ukraine will probably get the short end of the stick no matter what.
On the other hand, Europe is probably not foolish enough to let Ukraine languish in post-war doldrums. Ukraine has a massive amount to offer Europe, in weapons, resources, intellect, and soon a large trading partner. If Russia doesn’t collapse, Europe will need a strong Ukraine. If Russia does collapse, it’s a bit dicier because the refugees and chaos next door will be a distraction.
Hopes…
So which of these should we hope for?
I want to see Russia destroyed. Russia has caused massive evil in the world, including but not limited to meddling destructively in the foreign politics of a lot of countries, including mine. So my reasoning may be a bit motivated here.
If Russia’s government continues without a national collapse, the new government will probably continue the same dirty tricks, sending mercenaries to destabilize Africa, bots to damage democracies, funds to Middle East terrorists, and “little green men” to bite chunks out of neighboring countries like they did in Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova.
If Russia doesn’t collapse, China will get Vladivostok and have a precedent for expanding into Siberia. This process is already well underway. If Russia does collapse, China will get also get Vladivostok, but the US will probably be able to take the Arctic Circle. That seems a fair trade to me.
If Russia doesn’t collapse, the new government will probably continue to strengthen Iran and North Korea. (They probably already helped North Korea get nukes.) If Russia collapses, Iran and North Korea will be in much weaker positions, which is good for the rest of the world.
Russia’s collapse would probably be good for China, but would also be a cautionary tale that China will probably pay close attention to. A stronger but wiser China seems like a fair trade to me.
…And plans
Which scenarios are more likely? Which can we influence? What plans can we make?
The longer Russia stays in Ukraine, the closer it comes to collapse. Some very smart people, including Dylan Combellick and Shankar Narayan, are blaming Biden for not supporting Ukraine more. I hope — without much evidence — that Biden is playing a deeper game, trying for Russian collapse rather than just regime change.
The timing of collapse is inherently unpredictable — it’s a complex sequence of snowballing events, like an avalanche. But if Russia stays in Ukraine long enough, collapse is inevitable — unless Russia manages to put their agent in the White House and destroy the sanctions that are currently eroding their infrastructure and economy. “Vote Red because you like Putin” or vote Blue and save democracy.
The US and Europe should be doing a few things, with urgency:
Diplomacy
— Divide up the former Eastern Russia with China
— Reach out to possible breakaway regions and offer support
— Give the rest of the world a clear vision of a post-Russia world that benefits them
Special ops — Russia’s nukes are definitely a concern. We need to make sure that in a collapse, they are collected by responsible people and kept out of terrorists’ hands.
— Also, more diplomacy, to prepare for the messiness of putting our teams on and through other territories and nations.
Marshall Plans — Regions that do break away from Moscow need to know that the US and Europe stand ready to help rebuild and modernize them as independent and successful entities. That will both weaken Moscow’s position, and encourage breakaway regions to align with the West rather than China. (China is a worthy adversary, but I’d rather see the West get stronger.) And, of course, the faster Europe rebuilds Ukraine, the stronger Europe will be.
TLDR
Russia can’t continue as it is — there will be either a change of government or a collapse. I think the world, especially the West, should hope for a collapse, but we should be ready to pick up the pieces.
What do you think? Am I missing any major factors here? Please let me know in the comments.
