The Analysis of Forex Market(27th February 2020)
This article is daily technical analysis from Ray Shen.
USD Index
The risk aversion caused by public health events in the day supports the US dollar. At the same time, the global economy is also expected to be impacted. European currencies also remain weak due to their own fundamentals. Commodity currencies are also weak, and the US dollar is once again unique.
The US dollar index rebounded after it was supported at the 99.00 mark. The short-term pressure at the top was at 99.50, and the pressure at the top was at the 100.00 mark.
EUR/USD
This situation of the euro zone being more impacted by public health storms has made its rise unsustainable, and the recovery of US bond yields from historical lows has also helped the US dollar index stabilize; the global public The health crisis has further fermented, and the affected countries have spread from Italy to many neighboring countries. For the Eurozone, which is already in economic difficulties, this is an additional negative event dragged down. Since the beginning of the year, the downward trend will continue for some time.
After hitting the 1.0900 mark, the euro / dollar quickly fell back. The short-term support below was 1.0800, and then the bottom support was 1.0750. The short-term pressure above was around 1.0900, and the pressure above was around 1.0950.
USD/JPY
The dollar rebounded after three consecutive losses against the yen, and risk sentiment still accelerated the global capital cross-border transfer; the US dollar index rebounded from overnight lows during the day, so the previous gold price peaked and fell behind, and the dollar-denominated fixed-income bonds once again became a hedge fund, Japan ’s public health situation and economic concerns have curbed the yen ’s further rebound; this means that the yen will still struggle to regain its safe-haven currency low in the short term. In particular, overnight, international officials have questioned whether Japan ’s Tokyo could host the Olympic Games as scheduled. The outlook expressed more concerns and further weighed on the yen.
The USD / JPY rebounded after it was supported at the 110.00 mark, with pressure above 111.50 and support below 110.00.
XAU/USD
Although investors are worried that public health risks may be globalized and the global economy may be impacted, which will support the demand for precious metals’ safe-haven, the bulls still believe that the market has risen excessively in the short term, so it is difficult for the gold price to rise again. This has also brought some pressure on the price of gold.
The price of gold fluctuated downward, the support below was at the 1600 integer mark, and the pressure above was around 1650.
USO/USD
New York crude oil hit a new low of $ 48.99 / barrel in more than 13 months since the beginning of 2019. Public health risk events have led investors to be extremely bearish on the outlook for global demand, which has caused a slaughtering decline in the commodity market, and the crude oil market has been the first to suffer during this period. The demand for domestic transportation is further curbed. At the same time, international manufacturing activities are more affected by the interruption of the industrial chain, which makes the risk of oversupply of crude oil even more prominent. OPEC + ‘s attitude of still inaction on the decision to reduce production has made the decline in oil prices even worse.
New York crude oil has strong support at the 50.00 mark. Although it was briefly broken during the session, the support is still there, and the support below is at 48.50, and the pressure above is around 52.00.
PS: Today focus
18:00 February Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index Final Value
18:00 Euro zone economic sentiment index in February
21:30 U.S. jobless claims in the week ending February 22 (ten thousand)
21:30 Annualized quarterly rate correction of core PCE price index in the fourth quarter of the United States (%)
21:30 Corrected value of annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the fourth quarter of the United States (%)
21:30 Initial value of monthly durable goods orders in the United States in January (%)
23:00 U.S. January Seasonally Adjusted Existing Home Signed Sales Index Month Rate (%)
17:45 United Kingdom London European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks.
The above views are for reference only, not for ordering basis. Investment is risky, so proceed with caution.
