This article is daily technical analysis from Ray Shen.

China-US Trade Talk

China’s commerce ministry said on Friday that it had reached a consensus on principles following a phone call last week between senior representatives of the two sides, noting that the two sides had had “serious and constructive” discussions on “core” trade points and discussed arrangements for the next round of talks. The White House also said Friday that the trade representative had made progress in consultations in various areas and was working to resolve outstanding issues, and that dialogue at the sub-level was continuing. U.S. commerce secretary RON Ross on Sunday expressed renewed optimism about the U.S.-china trade deal and said a license for U.S. companies to do business with China’s Huawei technologies Co. would soon be in place.

USDX

The dollar index stopped falling rebound, below the 97 mark support is obvious, currently trading in the 200 average around 97.40, once the upward break is expected to challenge the 98.00 mark.

EUR/USD

The euro zone’s manufacturing sector still posted its biggest decline in seven years in October, which means commodity production could drag down GDP performance into the fourth quarter, while Brexit and geopolitical uncertainty combined to weaken the euro in the short term. The euro zone’s final manufacturing PMI for October was 45.9, better than expected 45.7. Germany’s final manufacturing PMI for October came in at 42.1, beating expectations of 41.9. France’s manufacturing PMI for October came in at 50.7, roughly in line with expectations of 50.5.

The EUR/USD was under pressure on the downside, with upward pressure on the 200-day moving average of 1.1200 and downward supports around 1.1100.

AUD/USD

The RBA is set to release its decision on interest rates, and markets expect the reserve bank of Australia to hold fire amid recent improvements in inflation and employment data. But Monday’s poor retail sales data, the RBA’s three main focus, could prompt the RBA to cut its economic forecast. Some see the RBA’s forward guidance this week as having a bigger impact on markets, and the RBA may consider cutting rates again in February 2020.

The head signs of AUD/USD are obvious, and the later trend is mainly to fall back, the pressure above is around the 200-day average of 0.6950, the short-term support below is at 0.6850, and the support below is at the line of 0.6800.

XAU/USD

The Sino-us trade negotiations are proceeding well, and the momentum of gold rally is insufficient. Currently, the short-term pressure above is around 1520, the pressure above is around 1540, the short-term support below is around 1500, and the support below is around 1480.

XAG/USD

Silver currently fluctuates between 17.00 and 18.50, and is currently trading around 18.00, with short-term pressure coming down, support below between 17.50 and 17.60, short-term pressure above 18.20 and above 18.50.

USO/USD

New York crude rebounded to near its 200-day average of 57.25, helped by better trade and global stock markets, while Iranian oil chief mohammad zangani said he expected further production cuts at the next Opec meeting. Saudi Arabia’s market regulator has formally approved an application by aramco, the world’s largest oil company, to list on the country’s stock market. After going public, the company is expected to surpass Microsoft and apple as the world’s most valuable public company.

New York crude rebounded strongly near its 200-day moving average of 57.25, with upward pressure around 58.00 and downward support around 55.00.

PS: Today focus

17:30 Markit services PMI for October

21:30 Canada September trade account (c $100 million)

23:00 U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI in October

23:00 JOLTs job opening in September (ten thousand)

The reserve bank of Australia in Sydney, Australia, announces its interest rate decision at 11:30 a.m

The above views are for reference only, not for ordering basis. Investment is risky, so proceed with caution.

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