The Analysis of Forex Market (8th Novmber)
This article is daily technical analysis from Ray Shen.
USD Index
The dollar index was trading near the 98 mark, with limited overall fluctuations during the day. The trade situation fluctuated from pessimism to optimism, and China and the United States agreed to phase out the tariff increases as the agreement progressed. And while the fed is prepared to keep interest rates on hold, markets remain accommodative. The CME’s fed watch tool shows the market expects the fed to cut rates again by July 2020.
Dollar index challenges 98.00 mark up for 4 consecutive trading days, once effective breakthrough is expected to challenge 99.00 mark, the lower short-term support at 97.50, then the lower support at 97.00 integer mark.

GBP/USD

The bank of England kept interest rates unchanged as expected, but two members unexpectedly voted for a cut, leaving the bank’s benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75 percent, as well as 435 billion pounds of central bank asset purchases and 10 billion pounds of central bank corporate bond purchases. November interest rate resolution, rate increase — unchanged — cut the voting ratio of 0–7–2. Bank of England members Bernie sanders and David haskell unexpectedly voted for a 25 basis point cut.
The British pound under pressure to challenge the lower 1.2800 mark, then support at the 200-day average of 1.2700, above short-term pressure at 1.2900, then above pressure at 1.3000 line.

EUR/USD
The European commission has cut its growth forecasts for the Eurozone in 2019 and 2020. GDP growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 were revised down to 1.1% and 1.2% respectively. We lowered our GDP growth forecast for Germany from 0.5% to 0.4% this year and from 1.4% to 1% in 2020. The commission expects Eurozone inflation to be 1.2 per cent this year and 1.2 per cent next, with a modest rebound to 1.3 per cent in 2021. Europe has entered a long period of low growth and low inflation. The global economic growth forecast is lowered to 2.9 percent in 2019, 3 percent in 2020 and 3.1 percent in 2021. The resilience of the Eurozone economy is unsustainable.
With the continued rebound of the dollar index, EUR/USD under pressure downward, if effectively below the 1.1050 mark, then the lower support at 1.0950 near, above the short line pressure at 1.1100, then the upper pressure at 1.1150.

XAU/USD

In response to the upbeat trade news, the Commerce Department said that over the past two weeks, leaders from China and the United States had “serious and constructive discussions” on how to properly address their core concerns and agreed to phase out the tariffs as the agreement progressed. The fed has also said it does not plan any further action this year and gold will trade in the 1480–1520 range in the short term.
Gold prices below the short-term support at 1480 line, then below the support near 1460, above the short-term pressure at 1500, then above the pressure at 1520.

USO/USD
China and the United States have agreed to phase out tariff increases as the agreement progresses. Risk appetite, which had been depressed in the market, has been revived, and the outlook for future demand for crude oil has been renewed. The market was supported by Saudi Arabia’s statement that OPEC should “try to keep oil prices as stable as possible” at the timing of the Aramco IPO.
New York crude oil again moved above the 57.00 mark, the current 200-day average pressure around 57.30, 58 lines will have strong pressure, below the short-term support at 56.00, then below support at 54.00.

PS: Today focus
15:00 Germany September un-quarterly trade account (eur 100 million)
21:30 Canadian unemployment rate in October (%)
21:30 change in Canadian employment in October (ten thousand)
23:00 the university of Michigan consumer confidence index for November
23:00 final monthly wholesale inventory rate in September (%)
The above views are for reference only, not for ordering basis. Investment is risky, so proceed with caution.
