The weekly analysis of Forex market (3.4)

This Tuesday to Thursday, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the bank of Canada and the European central bank will all make interest rate decisions, with Powell, Carney, Draghi and other central bank officials making intensive speech. On Friday, the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for February will also strongly affect the market.

Last week review

Last Friday, the U.S. ISM manufacturing index for February has hit a new low since November 2016. Due to the negative influence of U.S. economic data, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) has fell to 96.09 in a short-term, from the New York Fed’s GDPNowcast model shows that the rhythm of the slowdown in the U.S. economy is better than market expectations, at the same time the Fed Bostic made a speech of 2019, the data is pretty weak, Bostic think that will raise interest rates once this year, which is relevant hawkish remarks and make the dollar continued to extend rasing. As the U.S. index rose, gold remained under pressure, with gold falling below $1,300.

Market analysis of this week

The trend of U.S. dollar index

Pressure zone: 96.7–96.9–98

Key upside: 96.7

Support zone: 96.3–96–95.8

Short — term key down point: 96.1

The U.S. dollar index is still intact. Although the U.S. manufacturing data on Friday was weaker than expected, the generally hawkish from Fed have reversed the trend. On Saturday, trump again accused the federal reserve and said quantitative tightening was promoting a stronger dollar but hurting competition.

From the technical analysis, the U.S. index is expecting a short-term pullback, with the key point of the mid-term decline is 96.1. If this support is not broken, the U.S. index will end the short-term pullback. Meanwhile, we need to pay attention to the fundamental news and the fed’s announcement of the end of quantitative tightening, which will have a negative impact on the dollar.

The trend of gold

Pressure zone: 1298–1304–1308

Key upside: 1300

Support zone: 1290–1285–1279

Short — term key down point 1288

A combination of positive equity markets last week and a probably deal between the U.S. and China that would end the trade friction, combined with a stronger dollar trend, pushed the gold dropped down the 1,300 to as low as around 1,290.

Technically, at the same time, the overall pattern of Candlestick chart in line 5 is bearish, it is worth noticing that 4 hours at the bottom of a bullish candle stick, if the second root K line is also a bullish candle stick, or the lowest price is not lower than first lowest candle stick, the market will have recovered slightly on Monday, if increases can be sustained should focus on whether the price can stabilized above 1298. Investors need to keep an eye on geopolitical events.

Crude oil trend

Pressure zone: 56.1–56.7–57

Support zone: 55.3–54.9–54.57

Key support zone: 55.0

Oil prices closed down more than 2 percent on Friday, and down about 3 percent for the week. Due to the market will worry about the global demand growth after weakly U.S. manufacturing data will have overshadowed the affect the OPEC production cuts and sanctions against venezuela and Iran.

After more than three-month increasing, due to the worried about the demand, the U.S. oil prices fell down sharply. The U.S. institute of supply management said its manufacturing index fell to 54.2 in February, which is the lowest since November 2016. Althrough the oil price has hit the highest level since mid-november this week, it has fell 2.7 percent.

At present, it has not formed obvious bullish trend, if the rebound not stand above $56, it will probably going short trend. At the same time, if oil prices fall below the key support level of $55, oil prices will start a new round of decline.

Special note: the above information is for reference only, not as a basis for investors to operate in the market, at your own risk.