How dominant will the Damian Lillard-Giannis Antetokounmpo pick-and-roll actually be?
A deep dive into Lillard and Antetokounmpo’s pick-and-roll potential and why there might not be a clear answer for it.
Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo have the potential to be the best duo in the NBA.
In trading for Lillard, the Bucks now have one of the greatest point guards of all time, a member of the NBA’s 75th Anniversary Team who is coming off of a career season. Antetokounmpo is a two-time MVP in the prime of his career who was widely considered to be the best player in the game before Nikola Jokic powered the Nuggets to the championship.
It’s not just that Lillard and Antetokounmpo are both individually amazing. It’s that they make for a seamless fit.
There are a number of ways Lillard and Antetokounmpo complement each other, but the one that has everyone excited is as pick-and-roll partners. Lillard has never played with a powerful paint scorer like Antetokounmpo and Antetokounmpo has never played with a shooter like Lillard.
The results could be dynamite.
Let’s start by looking at the Lillard part of this.
The NBA’s play type data only goes back to the 2015–16 season. Since then, Lillard hasn’t finished a season in the top five in pick-and-roll scoring once —2021–22 when he was limited to 29 games due to injury. The most impressive part? The lowest he’s ranked in efficiency during that time is in the 76th percentile — again, his injury-riddled 2021–22 season.
Put simply, Lillard scores a ton of points in the pick-and-roll and does it with off-the-charts efficiency.
Lillard’s shooting off the dribble is what separates him from other pick-and-roll scorers. According to NBA.com, nobody made more pull-up 3s than him last season — nope, not even Stephen Curry. Lillard can shoot going to his right or left, he has side steps and step backs in his bag, and he’s comfortable shooting from way out. And I mean way out.
NBA.com has this down as a 30-footer from Lillard:
Want to guess how many shots he has made from that distance or further in his career? 185, the most in Stathead’s database.
Lillard’s longest made shot last season — a whopping 41-footer—actually came against Antetokounmpo and the Bucks. They’re well aware of how ridiculous and deep his range is.
Antetokounmpo was left scratching his head — literally.
Lillard being a threat to shoot almost as soon as he crosses halfcourt puts a tremendous amount of pressure on the opposing team. Defending him not only requires excellent screen navigation from whoever is defending him but also a big who is nimble enough to step out to the perimeter. There aren’t many teams that have both.
That often leads to situations like this, where Lillard draws two defenders out to the perimeter, leaving the screener with ample space to roll to the basket:
Now imagine Antetokounmpo in place of the circled Jusuf Nurkic.
Screening and rolling hasn’t been a big part of Antetokounmpo’s game to date. The most points he’s averaged as a roll man over an entire regular season is 2.5, making up a measly 6.8 percent of his offense. It could take him some time to adjust to playing with a dominant pick-and-roll scorer in Lillard, but the juice will be well worth the squeeze.
Antetokounmpo draws even more attention in the paint than Lillard does out on the perimeter. Even without a consistent jump shot — Antetokounmpo shot 35.9 percent from midrange and 27.5 percent from 3 last season, the combination of which made him one of the worst shooters in the league — there might not be a single player who can consistently stop Antetokounmpo from getting to the basket anymore, especially if he can regain his touch from floater range.
The only way teams have been able to slow Antetokounmpo down is by building a wall against him. Even that hasn’t been all that effective lately thanks to his growth as a passer.
Putting Antetokounmpo in pick-and-rolls with Lillard is one way to get around teams building that wall. Similar to how few teams have the personnel to defend Lillard’s pick-and-rolls, most teams have one defender at best they feel comfortable matching up with Antetokounmpo.
If that defender has to step out to guard Lillard out of fear of him pulling up, Antetokounmpo is going to find himself in a lot of these situations:
Notice how Donovan Mitchell raises his hand after Antetokounmpo’s dunk? That’s probably him admitting to Cleveland’s coaching staff that he should’ve been quicker to cut off Antetokounmpo’s roll. The problem is that would’ve left Grayson Allen, a career 39.5 percent 3-point shooter, wide open on the perimeter.
This is already a lot of space for a shooter like Allen:
Allen is no longer on the team, but the Bucks should still have enough shooting to open up the floor for Antetokounmpo. Brook Lopez is one of the best-shooting big men in the NBA. He shot a career-best 37.4 percent on 4.7 3-point attempts per game last season. Khris Middleton struggled last season but is a career 38.8 percent 3-point shooter. He’s been a big-time catch-and-shoot threat for most of his career.
Whether it’s Pat Connaughton, Jae Crowder, Malik Beasley, Cameron Payne or Bobby Portis rounding out the lineup, the Bucks have the personnel to play four-out nearly every minute Antetokounmpo is on the floor.
“We have a guy that can read the pick-and-roll, can shoot behind the pick-and-roll, can make the right pass, so I’m excited to see how that’s going to work,” Antetokounmpo said of Lillard. “That’s going to be fun for me. I think it’s going to be a lot of open looks for me, which in (the last) couple years I haven’t had. I think it’s going to be some open looks for him.”
There are more wrinkles to the Lillard-Antetokounmpo pick-and-rolls.
Two years ago, the Bucks had quite a bit of success running inverted pick-and-rolls with Antetokounmpo as the ball handler and Bryn Forbes as the screener. A 6–2 guard, Forbes wasn’t a threat to roll to the basket. He would instead slip out to the 3-point line for pick-and-pop opportunities.
The Bucks should be able to do the same with Lillard, who is more than capable of shooting on the move. If his defender hangs back to prevent Antetokounmpo from getting downhill, Lillard should be open.
But if Lillard’s defender hesitates, Antetokounmpo should have a free lane.
Switching won’t be an option, either.
Even at the age of 32, Lillard was one of the best one-on-one scorers in the NBA last season. He averaged 5.7 isolation points per game, putting him behind only five players for most in the league. He scored at a rate of 1.17 points per possession, ranking him in the 91st percentile in efficiency.
Again, Lillard’s shooting makes him a tough matchup for pretty much everyone, but he’s also capable of punishing defenders who pressure him at the 3-point line. Despite some obvious limitations as a 6–2 guard without jump-out-of-the-gym athleticism, he’s still quick enough to blow by defenders and he’s become a crafty finisher around the basket.
Just watch him dust Lu Dort, who is an elite perimeter defender:
Antetokounmpo isn’t as dominant or efficient of a one-on-one scorer on paper, but he’s one of the toughest matchups in the league. He’s too nimble and athletic for most bigs and far too strong for pretty much every guard. Defenders bounce off of him on his forays to the basket.
More often than not, whoever is guarding Lillard is going to be at a complete and utter loss guarding Antetokounmpo on a switch. His growth as a passer and the shooting the Bucks can surround him with will only make the decision of whether or not to double him more difficult.
There might not be a clear solution, but there are a few teams that at least have a shot at defending Lillard-Antetokounmpo pick-and-rolls.
Milwaukee’s biggest competition in the Eastern Conference, the Celtics, might top the list. Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are two of the best guard defenders in the league, Kristaps Porzingis is an elite rim-protector and Al Horford has been one of the better Antetokounmpo defenders for a while.
It’s a lot to ask of a 37-year-old Horford, but matching him up with Antetokounmpo with one of Holiday or White on Lillard and Porzingis roaming off of Milwaukee’s weakest shooter could make things difficult enough to tip the scale in Boston’s favor.
The Lakers and 76ers could do something similar, guarding Antetokounmpo with Jarred Vanderbilt or P.J. Tucker—physical defenders who have the versatility to defend up—while rim protectors Anthony Davis and Joel Embiid clog up the paint behind them.
More on that tactic and why it could work here:
The problem the Lakers and 76ers face is that their best options against Antetokounmpo are limited offensive players. As long as the Bucks are an average-to-good defensive team with Lillard, which is certainly a question but possible as long as Antetokounmpo and Lopez are healthy, they might still have the edge in those matchups.
I’ll also be curious to see how aggressively some teams trap Lillard. It’s something he has struggled with at times in his career, most notably in the 2018 NBA Playoffs when Lillard’s Trail Blazers were swept in the first round by a Pelicans team that featured Holiday and Davis. The Nuggets have had some success trapping Lillard more recently.
Lillard has, of course, not had the luxury of playing with a roller as dynamic as Antetokounmpo to this point in his career. Maybe that’s enough to make one of the few coverages he’s had ups and downs against obsolete.
“When I think about playing with him, I’m just trying to figure out how do you defend it,” Lillard said. “I haven’t played against a lot of coverages where teams aren’t at the level of the screen whether it’s showing, trapping or just being there to where I have to give the ball up.
“I can’t imagine them wanting him to have the ball at the free throw line, coming downhill with an advantage and Khris on the wing and Brook — you know, you’ve got really good players out there.
“I’ve definitely thought about it and I just don’t know how you handle that.”
