Go Hop? When will the band play?
“If you foul the Jays, the band will play.”
The band hasn’t played as much at Homewood in the last few years.
Johns Hopkins is one of the most storied and successful programs in Men’s Division 1 Lacrosse. They have won nine Divison 1 Championships and 44 national championships in their program history.
Saturday night the Jays faced the Terps in The Rivalry at Homewood Field. It was Senior Night. Hopkins Lacrosse Alumni also gathered for the first time in over two years. The stage was set for a great night of Hopkins’ lacrosse.
Maryland didn’t get the memo.
It’s been a disappointing year at Hopkins. The Jays sit at 6–8 on the year. 4th in the B1G. They are in need of a miracle to win the conference tournament and make a return to the NCAA tournament.
I wanted to dig deeper to find out what is going on at Homewood. To do this, I used data, courtesy of Lacrosse Reference, from the last six seasons and chatted with two lacrosse insiders.
Offense:
The band is out of practice. From 2015 to 2019, the Jays had a top 10 offense. With three of the five seasons being ranked 5th or 6th in the country.
Ryan Brown, John Crawley, Kyle Marr, Shack, and Wells Stanwick led the Jays with an electric high-scoring offense during that time. Three short years ago, the #1 recruit in the 2018 class, Joey Epstein, led the Jays with 48 goals and 25 assists.
Hopkins’ offense has backslid since then. This year the Jays’ offense ranks 38th in the country and is last in the B1G in goals scored.
One of our insiders, summed up the frustration of many Jays fans about the 2022 season.
The product on the field is mediocre, unexciting, and uninspiring. There is a significant talent deficit with no pending recruiting classes that look to change that.
The lack of offensive punch and talent deficit has been evident in games against the top teams this year. Against Top 20 teams, the Jays are 1–6 and have been outscored 104–61.
Watching many of the games this year, the Jays have not been able to run by or get their opponents rotating on defense.
It comes down to size, speed, and quickness. Something one of our insiders pointed out the Jays are lacking.
I think it’s what everyone else maybe won’t say and that’s size. They don’t have the big bodies across the board. Yes, they have some size, but take a look at Hopkins’ roster and then go look at a school like MIT — why is MIT’s base player bigger than theirs?
Even in their wins this season, it has been a struggle. The Jays knocked off the Orange 10–7 at Homewood back in early March.
On the surface, a win against a long-time rival is good news. Taking a look at the stats beyond the scoreboard illustrate the challenges the Jays have faced even in their wins.
Defense:
If there’s a bright spot or hope for the Jays, it’s in their defense. For being the greatest defenseman of all time, Dave Pietramala’s defenses struggled in his final years at Homewood.
Between 2015 and 2020, Pietramala’s final season, the defense routinely ranked somewhere between 40th and 50th, the bottom third of Division 1. The lone exception was a 17th ranking in 2018.
Peter Milliman brought in former Blue Jay, Jamison Koesterer, from UMBC when he was hired in the Spring of 2020. The results have been promising.
The Jays have improved from 33rd last year to 23rd this year in the country in adjusted defense.
The change has also been evident on the field. The Jays have a more physical presence and are playing with an edge that hasn’t been seen in years past.
Recruiting
Recruiting is another challenge for the Jays. When compared to teams like Maryland, the teams in the ACC, and Ivy League (their peers) they’re missing out on the top-end talent. As one of our insiders put it:
Fix recruting. Hopkins has no All-America-level talent on its roster. How is that possible?
Stars Matter. That’s how the Ivy League has been able to weather the storm of not playing in 2020 and seeing high-end talent transfer out the last two seasons?
The Ivy League brought in 42 four and five-star recruits from the class of 2021. They could have as many as six teams in the tournament this year, more on that later.
Sure, they brought in Epstein in 2018, but they need more. The Jays brought in only three of the top 100 recruits in 2021. For 2022, they have 6 four-stars and a single three-star recruit.
That seems problematic going forward. Especially, if they want to be competing for a B1G Championships and returning to Memorial Day weekend.
Help may be on it’s way, but it’s not imminent. One of our insiders was very high on Jimmy Ayers out of St. John’s Prep.
I’m biased but I think they have the steal of the 2023 class in St. John’s Prep attackman Jimmy Ayers. He was the MVP of the IL IDX event in the fall and he can play with or without the ball, has amazing speed and even better hands. Now, somewhat antithetical to my previous point of size is an issue, he’s not very tall, but he’s tough and rangy and annoying for bigger defensemen to guard.
Transfer Portal
Recruiting is good, but the transfer portal can be a quick fix or way to reinforce the roster. Maryland and Rutgers have used the transfer portal to reinforce their spot atop the B1G and college lacrosse in each of the last two seasons.
The Jays have not benefited or utilized the portal like their B1G counterparts. I asked the insiders if they could shed any insights on why. Was it the academics? Something else? The answer was telling.
“Yes, academics make transfer enrollment more difficult. Across the board, Hopkins has never had a lot of transfer students. We could start by keeping the guys we have in the program.”
Like these three guys?
Johns Hopkins is one of the elite academic institutions in the country. Look at Georgetown bringing in Will Bowen this year from UNC. There is no reason why they couldn’t attract some of that Ivy League talent or high-end NESAC talent to Baltimore.
Wouldn’t Max Waldbaum have looked good playing for the Jays this year?
What does success look like?
I asked my two insiders their thoughts on what success looks like going forward. They provided two different viewpoints/perspectives.
The first was a plea to the administration to make the lacrosse program a priority again.
Get back to making lacrosse the absolute number one priority. The administration can’t treat lacrosse anything like the other sports or vice versa. Have to commit resources, personnel, whatever to single it out and make it special and unique in the college lacrosse landscape.
The second offered hope and patience for Milliman and his staff.
Success for Hop is hard to gauge. They need to build on any positive momentum that they can generate with the recruiting process, maybe land a marquee transfer from an IKvy LEague (which is THE move for teams looking to make a splash from the portal) and just keep hammering away at the recruiting scene. Milliman and his staff are great coaches, I believe in them, but it doesn’t matter what I think — they need to get some kids in there that have quality character, athletic ability and a high ceiling so they can develop.
One thing is for certain. Without an injection of offensive talent from recruiting or the transfer portal, the band will have to wait to play for another day.
Ivy League Madness
Six teams for four spots. The Ivy League is going to be exciting this weekend as we finally find out which four teams are in and where The Ivy League tournament will be played next week.
Will The Ivy League crash the party with six teams in the tournament? Laxreference doesn’t think so, but it will be fun watching.
Championship Weekend Tickets
The NCAA is offering some great Championship Weekend packages for groups of 10 or more. Give my guy, Cade, a call if you are planning to make it to East Hartford for Memorial Day weekend.
Week 12 Picks
Lines courtesy of BetOnLacrosse. Win probabilities courtesy of LaxReference. Picks in bold.
BU locked up hosting the Patriot League tournament in their last-second win in Lehigh last weekend. The Cadets were knocked off at home in OT against the Midshipmen. The Terriers remain perfect in the Patriot League, but Army makes them work for it.
The Tigers had leads of three and five goals on Saturday, but could not hold off the Crimson. Cornell has struggled in their last three games. The Tigers remain perfect this season at the Class of 1952 stadium.
Johns Hopkins (-1.5) vs. Penn State
We know what happened last week to the Jays against the Terps. Penn State has had a forgettable 2022 with only one B1G win. Who still wants to play and who is ready for summer vacation? A hot start could turn this one into a rout.
Winning on the road has been a tall task all season in the Ivy. The Crimson are playing for a spot in both the Ivy League and NCAA tournament. I am not sure we’ve seen who the real Yale team is this season. It’s a good time to start. Matt Brandau shows them the way.
UNC has an opportunity somehow to still be considered for an at-large spot. The eye test tells me they are done. Thank you Chris Gray, I am sorry we won’t see you play anymore in college. You’ll enjoy the PLL. Duke needs to make a final statement to leave no doubt for their at-large opportunity.
Last week A.T.S: 2-3
Season: 31–27–3
