Wait, you hired who? Coaching carousel evaluation
During the past 10 seasons, 20 programs have fired a winning coach. What happened next? Just four made the leap from good to great they aimed to make. Exactly twice as many made their programs worse. And eight more paid all that buyout money to get similar results. -David Ubben
We are living in a brave new world. Coaches are voluntarily giving up jobs at Notre Dame and Oklahoma because they feel they reached their ceiling and can not compete for a national championship.
Read that sentence again. Would you have believed it in July, let alone last week?
Ubben highlights the challenges A.D.’s face trying to move from good to great. So, why make the change if you only have a 20% chance of success> New Florida Gator head coach, Billy Napier, said it best:
Here are my Top Five hires so far (this week lol) in the 2021 coaching carousel:
- Brain Kelly (LSU): Kelly is a winner. He has two DII Championship, a MAC Championship, a Big East Championship, and has elevated Notre Dame to a perennial playoff contender. Sure, most of his staff is staying in South Bend rather than joining him in. Kelly gets the last laugh and is the 4th straight coach to bring a championship to Baton Rouge.
- Lincoln Riley (USC): Lincoln brought new life into the Sooners program after taking over for Bob Stoops in the summer of 2017. Riley’s resume boasts of two Heisman Trophy winners and a Heisman finalist and dominating the Big 12. Riley will bring back the glitz and glamour that USC had under Pete Carroll. He has shown to be a dynamic recruiter at the skill positions. Riley’s ability to bring in talent along the trenches will tell us if this is truly an upgrade over his Oklahoma teams that were repeatedly exposed in multiple CFBPlayoff appearances.
- Billy Napier (UF): The Kelly and Riley announcements put this hire on the back page headlines. Napier has an impressive resume working under both Dabo Swinney and Nick Saban. Napier has led the Ragin Cajuns for the last four years, winning the Sun Belt in 2020. Napier brought Saban’s Process to Layette, but as Dan Mullen found out, Gainesville is different. Napier will have to recruit to bring the Gators in line with the Dawgs and Tide. This is my sleeper pick of the 2021 carousel.
- Marcus Freeman (ND): You are a 35-year-old first-time head coach. What better place to cut your teeth than the epicenter of college football: Notre Dame. Freeman is keeping most of the Irish staff intact including 29-year-old Offensive Coordinator, Tommy Rees. Freeman’s meteoric rise to the top has come in his first ten years of coaching. He has proven to be a dynamic recruiter and play-caller. This is a big risk for the often thought of conservative Notre Dame. If this works, I can see Freeman and Rees bringing a cooler and fun vibe, think Clemson, to South Bend.
- Sonny Dykes (TCU): Sonny Dykes was the prize of the Texas college football coaching vacancies. Dykes decided to stay in Dallas rather than return to Lubbock, where his father coached. This was a smart move by Dykes. Sonny can take the “Dallas’s Team blueprint” he constructed at SMU and bring it to the Horned Frogs. Dykes was able to lure 4 and 5-star recruits to SMU by tapping into the Dallas high school pipeline. He also used the Transfer Portal to bring in top talent home to Dallas from larger programs. TCU should allow him to do this on a larger scale and enable the Frogs to compete for the Big 12 Championships.
Stat of the Week: Iron Bowl
I wrote last week that Jordan Hare is a nightmare for Saban and the Tide. With 1:32 remaining in the 4th quarter the Tide had to go 97 yards to tie the game. Auburn was sitting pretty with a 99.7% chance of winning the game.
You may have heard Gary Danielson and many Auburn fans point out that Tank Bigsby cost the Tigers the game by going out of bounds on Auburn’s last drive.
Gary and the rest of Tiger nation say that Alabama would not have enough time to march all the way down the field because time would have run out.
In an ideal world, that may be true. But the Auburn defense did allow the Tide to march 97 yards down in 1:12. Who's to say they wouldn’t have done it quicker if needed?
Tiger head coach Bryan Harsin could have also bailed out his running back in the first OT. Auburn had an opportunity to win the game by going for 2 rather than kicking the P.A.T. Harsin made the scared money move and Alabama took the advantage and won.
Conference Championship Picks
Championship Season is upon us. I usually pick five games a week, but I am going to take a stab at all ten games this week. Each of the games should be competitive with the spread in only two games being more than double digits. Picks are in bold.
Conference USA: Western Kentucky (-3) vs. UTSA
Meep Meep. If you like points this one is going to be your game. These teams met in early October and the Road Runners won 52–46. The Alamodome will be rocking for round two.
Pac-12: Oregon vs. Utah (-2.5)
Utah crushed Oregon’s defense and playoff hopes two weeks ago 38–7. All three of the Utes losses this year have come on the road. This one should be closer, but Utah makes it two in a row against the Ducks.
Big 12: Baylor vs. Oklahoma State (-5.5)
Another rematch that the Pokes won 24–14 back in early October. The Cowboys were impressive last week in Bedlam. The Cowboys were able to weather the storm to knock off the Sooners and send Lincoln Riley packing for the California sunshine. Jim Knowles will have the Pokes ready to stop a run-oriented Baylor attack. The Pokes get a win and stamp their way to their first CFBPlayoff appearance.
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MAC: Kent State (-3.5) vs. Northern Illinois
Kent State won the first meeting 52–47 in November MACtion. Northern Illinois has a knack for playing and winning close games. The Huskies have two one-point victories on the season. NIU keeps this one under a field goal and maybe pulls off a MACtion upset.
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Mountain West: Utah State vs. SDSU (-6)
Blake Anderson has done a remarkable job for the Aggies. A closer look at their schedules shows that they tend to struggle against physical, run-orientated teams. That is right up Brady Hoke and the Aztecs’ alley. With a win, the Aztecs keep hope alive of a New Years' 6 Bowl appearance.
Sun Belt: Appalachian State vs. Louisiana (-3)
Another lopsided rematch that saw Louisiana dominate the Mountaineers 41–13 in mid-October. Billy Napier will be off to Gainesville after this game but will have the Cajuns focused to send him out a Sun Belt Champion.
SEC: Georgia (-6.5) vs. Alabama
I was at the 2018 game. The Dawgs jumped all over Tua and the Tide early and looked to be on their way to a second straight SEC Championship. With a missed field goal by Rodrigo Blankenship, you could feel all of Dawg nation, on the field and in the stands, tighten up. Jalen Hurts ended up leading the Tide back to a thrilling win. On paper, this game could be a ten to fifteen-point spread. The Dawgs were perfect in SEC play and have not played a close game since Week 1 against Clemson. I am excited to see what Nick Saban has in store for Kirby and the Dawgs. This Georgia team is special and will be able to withstand anything the Tide sends their way. #GoDawgs
AAC: Houston vs. Cincinnati (-10.5)
Cincinnati has a playoff berth and AAC Championship on the line Saturday at Nippert Stadium. Dana Holgorsen has the team where Cougar boosters wanted when they brought him from West Virginia three years ago. This game should be fun and a great contest. Houston makes it close and gives the committee enough pause to drop the Bearcats from the CFBPlayoff on Sunday.
Who was that team in Ann Arbor? A physical defense to go with a ground and pound dominating running offense. I was expecting to see Elvis Garbac and Tshimanga Biakabutuka in the maize and blue watching that game. The Wolverines are sitting at #2 in CFBPlayoff are poised for Harbaugh’s first B1G Championship and playoff appearance. Standing in their way are Kirk Ferentz and the Hawkeyes. All of the lights and eyes will be on Indianapolis to see if last week’s game was a fluke or not. Harbaugh gets his championship, but Ferentz makes him earn it.
ACC: Pittsburgh (-3) vs. Wake Forest
The ACC and Pac 12 are out of the playoff and relevance in the College Football world. Without an undefeated Clemson, the ACC has been left with the nice story of super seniors leading Wake and Pitt. This game should be a fun watch and higher scoring. Dave Clawson gets his first ACC Championship to go along with his new contract extension.
Last week A.T.S: 4–1
Overall: 39–28
