Bitcoin “Economics Confidence Model”
According to Economics Confidence Model by Martin Armstrong (armstrongeconomics.com) any human made project endues an evolution every 8,6 years time span, called Pi — circle.
It means that anyone could apply one’s Pi — circle and determine stability of any project (a country, a company or a household).
If we examine Bitcoin we could find out that it was released on the 03 of January 2009 and its’ first Pi — circle ended on 10 of August 2017.
As you see from chart below the first 8,6 years time span looks very impressive. Bitcoin has risen from almost zero to more than 3,0 K.USD. It means it has got a good health.
Please Note. Direction of price and direction of circle could follow each other or could divert. Later calls circle inversion. To trade circle you couldn’t simply use ECM. You’ll lose money. To trade you must follow (1) TIMING Models, (2) Reversal System, and (3) Energy Models. More about it read original article https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/understanding-cycles/time-is-more-than-money-it-is-everything/
Now let’s try to analyze each time target, direction of the circle (ECM) and bitcoin price.
Time span, Direction, Result and Price
2009–2011, Upward, Yes. You could see the first high at 29,58 usd with the rise of circle.
2011–2012, Downward, Yes. The next year 2012 it was the first correction to 2,48 usd with the decline of circle
2012–2013, Upward, Let’s call it “Yes”. There were two highs with the rise of circle in April 2013 at 230 usd and in December at 1145 usd.
2013–2014, Downward, Yes. There was a correction to 370 usd with the decline of the circle.
After that you could find a circle inversion
2014–2015, Upward, No. The bitcoin price dropped to new low at 183 usd in 2015 with rise of the circle.
2015–2017, Downward, No. The following next two years 2016–2017 bitcoin rose to new highs up to 3600 usd with the decline of the circle.
So you see it’s not so easy to trade ECM and there is no purpose to teach you its trading models.
We believe that the ECM is a great human treasure because it could show strength or weakness of the project (Bitcoin) during, at the end first circle or at the start of new following circle.
What does it tell us about the first Bitcoin Pi-circle?
- At first it works out very well as an alternative means of payment and transfer of wealth outside of world and local banking system.
- After 2013 ECM High there were growing sense of thefts, legal and tax aversion problems.
- It seems that weakness of the Bitcoin in 2015 was tied with the serious doubt about its usefulness in future and with high probability of legal prosecutions in the G20 states.
- But after 2015 the rise of bitcoin price shows us a good attitude inside community to it and high probability to legalize Bitcoin in G20 states.
So why does it look healthy at the end of circle? We believe that:
- Bitcoin gets a free pass or green light to be legalized around the world;
- By the way there is a first successful Bitcoin hardfork, for example “Bitcoin cash” and more coming.
Now what you should expect from new Bitcoin Pi-Circle in the future?
It started on 11 August 2017 with very impressive rise of price & circle with time target on 05 of October 2019.
It seems there will be positive correlation between price and circle up to the end of 2019 year.
Are there any correction going forward? Yes there’s one now in place.
Why are we sure of Bitcoin success? Because we believe that many politicians, bankers and businessmen are all in the game now. They wish to legalize bitcoin wealth, to make it look smart and be competitive.
Therefore Bitcoin looks good for the 2018 and 2019 years time span. Let’s see what happens in the future?
P.S. We are looking forward to the bitcoin resolution at G20 Argentina summit in March.