Travel Blacklists, the 3-Child Policy and the RV Travel Craze: China Tourism News Update
As China picks up its vaccination stats from a slow start to smashing world records across major Chinese cities, a return to international travel for the China market is being penciled in for early 2022. The proverbial ball, however, is in our courts: Caixin reports that China’s considerations around opening up international travel to any foreign destinations would depend on, firstly, the vaccination rates and infection incidence rates of said country. Of course, Beijing will be basing its decision on vaccination rates and the infection status quo in China itself, but given how China might reach herd immunity within several months, that’s the least of the global travel industry’s worries.
What’s the sentiment on the ground in China’s travel industry? I spoke to one of Beijing’s leading outbound travel destination sales executives, who’s had the prospect of an imminent ‘return to normal’ dangled before his nose for the past 18 months. “先踏实做国内吧，” he says — “I’m just gonna play it safe and stick to doing domestic products for the time being”. There’s been a lot going on behind the iron curtain, or perhaps iron bubble, of international travel restrictions in China. As domestic travel and consumption become central drivers of China’s new economy, authorities have initiated a push for higher quality domestic travel experiences. New regulations look to clean up the sometimes murky waters of China’s domestic travel market, blacklisting and restricting credit for fraudulent, unlicensed or unsafe tourism service providers. The evolving Chinese domestic market may emerge more competitive post-COVID than ever before.
Perhaps the most telling new development in China’s travel market is the new recreational vehicle (RV) travel craze. We’ve spoken about the atomisation of the Chinese travel experience post-COVID, as we’re seeing domestic travellers in China join smaller travel groups — usually with family and friends they know well — and limit contact with those they don’t know. The RV, literally a home on wheels, allows Chinese travellers to move around with the comforts they’re most used to and, most importantly, provides the luxury of not having to encounter any potential COVID-positive travellers. Chinese enterprise data platform Qichacha reveals that the number of RVs in China has been growing by 50% annually over the last several years, reaching a total of 218,000 RVs at the end of 2020. RV-related companies, from manufacturing, sales and rentals, stood at 5,419 at the end of 2020, suggesting significant growth potential in this market segment — particularly given the boom in family travel that China may see in coming years.
China’s central government recently announced the new three-child policy against the background of an already-booming family travel market, registering 41% growth in the first half of 2021. The number of children under the age of 14 in China now makes up 17,95% of the population, an increase of 1,35% from 2010, according to China Travel News. If the effect of the 2015 two-child policy is anything to go by, which in large part drove a 32,9% compound annual growth rate from 2015 to 2019, the new three child policy almost certainly predicts a new upward trend in the family travel market.
The compound effect of more families travelling, which is more likely to include grandparents than not, while still wishing to avoid budget, crowded travel experiences may be significant. Experiences and transport modes that offer seclusion from strangers and a measure of security around health are destined to rise from the ashes of the traditional group tour-FIT divide. In its place, Chinese outbound travel may take on more of a hybrid form: let’s call it Group FIT. Using the free independent travel philosophy of hiring your own gear to plot your own course, Chinese outbound tourists will increasingly hire or charter larger-capacity transport to take them, their closest friends and their relatives on a journey of their choosing. Group FIT will develop along the lines of trust, family and friendship, rather than discount group tours, with pooled funds making experiences such as cruises, RV trips and small-scale safari experiences viable options. Gone are the days of seeing Paris or New York’s (perhaps bygone) glory with a group tour, with an era of smaller-scale Rhine river cruises and Serengeti safaris now beginning.
