Div TiwariPythagorean Expectation: A Guide to Estimating Win Probabilities in any SportPythagorean expectation is a statistical model commonly used in baseball to estimate a team’s expected winning percentage based on their…Dec 19, 2022Dec 19, 2022
Div TiwariI Spoke to an Astronaut about Cricket (and Probability Distributions)What probability distribution best models the batting strike-rates of players, and why?Aug 26, 20221Aug 26, 20221
Div TiwariHow Do Sports Ratings Work?Ah, sports ratings —a topic for casual workplace chatter, fodder for heated debate, an attempt at objectively answering the eternal “who’s…Jul 24, 2022Jul 24, 2022
Div TiwariRun Rate Hypothesis: How does scoring rate change with inning length?A rather unique aspect of cricket compared to other professional sports is the variety of forms, ranging from five-day Test matches to…May 29, 20221May 29, 20221
Div TiwariCricket Science — Average vs Strike Rate (Part III: Applying BEREX)Here, I apply the BEREX (BErnoulli Run EXpectation) model to real-world cricket data. Read Part I to learn about the idea, what motivated…May 14, 2022May 14, 2022
Div TiwariCricket Science — Average vs Strike Rate (Part II: Implementing BEREX)BEREX, short for BErnoulli Run EXpectation, is a mathematical model created to answer the question - how can average and strike rate be…Apr 15, 2022Apr 15, 2022
Div TiwariCricket Science — Average vs Strike Rate (Part I: Introducing BEREX)What is the hallmark of a good batsman? In simple numerical terms, it is the ability to score many runs and to do it fast. The same applies…Apr 15, 2022Apr 15, 2022
Div TiwariWhy Cricket Science?The year is 2001. The place is Ranchi, a small town in India. A short, bespectacled, eight year old boy is playing cards with his friend…Mar 28, 2022Mar 28, 2022