How I got my TRX for free using Tronbet

Photo by Jonathan Petersson on Unsplash

Disclaimer

This is gambling, do not do use this site. We have no idea how fair their game is, we have no idea who is behind the game. It requires new players to constantly enter the ecosystem (and lose) to make the dividend payouts work.

I did it as I have a decent chunk invested in TRX as one of my research projects and in this scenario, I am always looking for ways to get that initial investment out and freeroll it. I saw Tronbet as a way to do this and dedicated 10% of my TRX investment to see if I could get my total investment back.

Really do not do this I started at stage 1 level 1, and it is now stage 1 level 6 it costs a lot more to mine the “ante” and the payout will continue to decrease as the game goes on.

The link to Tronbet in this article is an affiliate link and if you do play (do not play) I will get a % of your bets as a way of referral. If you would rather that I did not get this referral I understand simply go directly to the site https://www.tronbet.io/#/.

Update 1

My laptop died on me and of course, I had not backed up my private keys, well I had but my opsec was not good enough but that is another story. Anyway, I lost the ANTE. I was able to reload and earn the same ante back (though it was not as profitable as I was on stage 1:6 at the time)

Update 2

I got my original ante back so now I have twice as much ANTE :)

Update 3

After the crypto price crash and the fact that tronbet changed their payout to frozen ante as well as 1.5x ante payout, it is not profitable to be mining ANTE again so I will be doing so for the next 24 hours.

The Premise

Tronbet is a simple dice rolling game that pays you an “ante” for every time you play based on how much TRX you wagered and the current rate of TRX to ante (which of writing it 1100 TRX to one “ante”).

As you can see from the screenshot above it pays out 153 per 100 presently or 1.5 per “ante”. The screenshot below shows an estimated payout over time.

There is 100 million total “ante” to be mined which means the end price for 1 “ante” is very very low (I won’t bore you with the mathematics of it). The developers are claiming more games that the same “ante” is going to be used for ad revenue etc. I have discounted all of this and will factor them into my calculations as (and if) they actually appear.

The Methodology

So we have a decreasing payout that requires people to lose in order for dividends to be paid, how did this become a profitable endeavour?

Simply put I used the above chart to figure out how many ante I required to break even then I decided on a sum of TRX I was happy to lose (10% of my total holdings) and set my bet amount to 1/40th of this amount.

Why 1/40th?

1/40th is very important as with the methodology I implemented we have to be able to lose 7 concurrent rolls and not fall victim to gamblers ruin.

Then it is really quite simple you set your bet amount, set the slider to 90 and click roll under. Simply repeat this process until you lose. As you can see you have a 90% chance of winning and you being paid out just under that (that’s the house edge) 
*note I did not start at 10 TRX

Once you lose (and you will lose it is a mathematical certainty) we switch to the martingale method which basically means we move the slider to 49 and roll again, if we lose we double the bet hit (x2) and repeat until we have either lost 7 straight rolls or doubled up. This is shown in the screenshot below.

What we are in effect doing is using a very low-risk strategy to do the majority of our bets and then invoking a very high-risk strategy to recover our lost bet. With the added bonus of the “ante”, this makes this strategy +ev. Though it will not always be +ev because of the increased cost of the “ante” over time.

There are ways to be more aggressive such

  • Double bet until the win or you go broke
  • 20x starting balance (bigger bets)
  • change the slider to be less than 90.

There are also a number of ways to refine this strategy and increase your win rate, although I did not employ them as they required too much time to be dedicated to the strategy whilst playing.

  • switch between roll over 9 and roll under 90 depending on the how the numbers are rolling (low or high)
  • On your first loss change the roll under to roll over based on how the numbers are rolling

SUPER DUPER IMPORTANT

WHEN YOU REACH YOUR DESIRED ANTE LEVEL OR WHEN IT BECOMES UNPROFITABLE TO ROLL YOU HAVE TO STOP. FAILURE TO DO SO MEANS YOU ARE JUST GAMBLING AND YOU WILL BECOME ONE OF THE PEOPLE WHO PAYS THE DIVIDENDS OUT TO THE PROFITABLE PLAYERS INSTEAD OF BEING THE PROFITABLE PLAYER THAT RECEIVES THE DIVIDENDS.

Conclusion

Using the above method I reached my desired “ante” level in about 3 days withdrew my initial 10% TRX investment (with another 20% in winnings) and I will be on course (at current payout levels) to have recouped my entire TRX investment in 24 days. I have had 4 payouts already and they have all been paid on time. Well done Tronbet devs.

screenshot showing payouts

Of course, an exit scam, change of ante rules TRX surge in price etc can affect this outcome one way or another.