Daily Briefing: 23 February 2017
By Adam Shaw
Good morning,
Voters go to the polls today in two by-elections; Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central. Both have long been Labour strongholds and in ordinary times there wouldn’t even be a question about the two constituencies remaining solidly red.
However, we do not live in ordinary times, and the fact that Labour could feasibly lose both seats is testament to the lamentable situation that the party finds itself in under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.
In a sign of confidence, Prime Minister Theresa May made a 600-mile round-trip to visit Copeland last week and the Conservatives are set to flood the seat with activists, including 20 MPs, today.
If the Tories do prevail in the Cumbrian seat, as the bookies are suggesting, it will be the first time in 35 years that an opposition party has lost a by-election to the government.
Meanwhile, in Stoke-on-Trent Central, the challenger takes the very different form of UKIP leader Paul Nuttall. Whilst Corbyn & Co. may be slightly more confident here thanks to a larger majority and Nuttall stumbling on issues including his official address and connection to the Hillsborough disaster, they still won’t be counting their chickens. If UKIP can convert enough of the 69.4% of Stoke-on-Trent residents who voted to leave the European Union, then tweed-loving Nuttall will become the second UKIP MP at Westminster.
While the predictions are not clear cut, particularly with Storm Doris thrown into the mix, what we can be fairly sure of is that it will once again be left to Diane Abbott to do the media rounds defending Corbyn should either, or both, of the results not go Labour’s way.
News
Prison governors are to be given responsibility for getting offenders off drugs, into jobs and learning English and maths as part of a shake-up detailed in new legislation to tackle the prison crisis. The prisons and courts bill, published today by Justice Secretary Liz Truss, will hand governors control over their budgets for education, employment and health, as well as introducing performance standards and a new league table system.
North Korea has challenged claims that Kim Jong-nam — the half-brother of Kim Jong-un — was poisoned, and has accused Malaysia of collaborating with South Korea. In a report by KCNA, the country’s state news agency, North Korea claimed Kim Jong-nam died after suffering “a heart stroke”, and said Malaysia was showing a disregard for international law by refusing to transfer the body.
The UK could lose 12,000 doctors trained in European countries because they feel less welcome following the result of the EU referendum, according to a survey of overseas medics conducted by the British Medical Association. Almost two-fifths of doctors who qualified in European Economic Area countries are considering leaving the UK, which would prompt a “disaster” in medical staffing according to the BMA, by further exacerbating personnel shortages.
Those who want to achieve the maximum protection against an early death from heart disease or cancer should be eating 10 portions of fruit and vegetables a day — double the government’s recommended amount. An analysis of 95 studies involving two million people showed that whilst five portions a day did reduce heart disease, the greatest benefit came from eating double that. (£)
Business & Economy
Many of the US Federal Reserve’s policymakers should be ready to lift short-term interest rates “fairly soon” according to minutes from the last meeting held at the end of January. At that meeting, it was agreed that rates should be left unchanged, to reflect uncertainties surrounding the impact of tax cuts and economic policies emerging from the new Trump administration. However, the record shows that a number of officials argued that the Fed should be ready to act should job numbers or inflation be in line with or exceed forecasts. (£)
The EU’s bid to seize euro derivative clearing from London and take the business into the Eurozone following Brexit could be “a road to the splintering of this global infrastructure”, according to Bank of England deputy governor Sir John Cunliffe. Currently, the UK is the global centre for clearing financial instruments, which is done most efficiently en masse in one place in order to better monitor and manage risk. The European Central Bank initially failed in its attempt to move the euro-dominated parts of the industry into the single currency area but but this could change when the UK leaves the EU.
The expansion of Heathrow Airport can only be justified if the government proves it will not breach laws on climate change and pollution, according to MPs from the Commons’ Environmental Audit Committee. Ministers have said that the addition of a third runway will not exceed environmental limits, but the committee accused the government of “wishful thinking”.
Markets
The FTSE 100 finished Wednesday up 0.4% at 7,302.2 points.
Unilever saw the biggest rise, closing the day up 5.7% after it promised a review of ways to increase value for shareholders.
Lloyds Banking Group and Barratt were the other big gainers, up 3.7% and 0.5% respectively after announcing increases in profits.
On the currency markets, the pound fell 0.25% against the dollar at $1.2442 and was down 0.5% against the euro at €1.1786.
Finals
BAE Systems, Barclays, British American Tobacco, Glencore, Howden Joinery Group, Intu Properties, Kaz Minerals, Macfarlane Group, Mondi, Playtech, Rathbone Brothers, Relx plc, RSA Insurance Group, Telefonica SA, Greencoat UK Wind
Interims
Bluefield Solar Income Fund Limited, Monitise, Wilmington
Q4 Results
Telefonica SA
AGMs
Hollywood Bowl Group, Chrysalis VCT, OMG
EGMs
Berkeley Group Holdings (The), Reconstruction Capital II Ltd., Sirius Real Estate Ltd.
International Economic Announcements
(07:00) GFK Consumer Confidence (GER)
(07:00) Gross Domestic Product (GER)
(13:30) Continuing Claims (US)
(13:30) Initial Jobless Claims (US)
(14:00) House Price Index (US)
(16:00) Crude Oil Inventories (US)
Columns of Note
ITV Border’s Political Correspondent Daniel Hewitt examines the disconnect between Copeland and Westminster, both geographically and politically. He cites interviews he conducted with Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn where both gave evasive answers to questions regarding key local issues, which he argues is driving feelings of cynicism and disillusionment with politics.
Writing in The Times, David Aaronovitch bemoans the continuing lack of equality between men and women in the world. Whilst acknowledging that the UK and Germany have female leaders, he points to Donald Trump’s “locker room apologetics” and anti-abortion sentiment as reminders that “the path to equality has to be constantly beaten and rebate”. (£)
Cartoon Source: The Times
Did you know?
The word ‘fortnight’ is a contraction of the two words ‘fourteen nights’.
Parliamentary highlights
TODAY
House of Commons
Oral Questions
Transport, including Topical Questions
Business Statement
Leader of the House
Opposition Day Debate
Armed Forces and investigation and prosecution of historical cases (Democratic Unionist Party)
Backbench Business
Unaccompanied children in Greece and Italy
House of Lords
Oral Questions
Promotion of charities providing education on helping the seriously injured in the event of a terrorist attack — Lord Jordan
Reducing smoking prevalence by publishing the latest Tobacco Control Plan for England — Lord Rennard
Ensuring that HS2 will maximise links between cities in the north of England and with Scotland — Lord Shipley
Consideration for a review into how the criteria for elite level sport funding are set — Lord Addington
Legislation
Health Service Medical Supplies (Costs) Bill — 3rd reading — Lord O’Shaughnessy
Neighbourhood Planning Bill — Report stage (day 1) — Lord Bourne of Aberystwyth
Scottish Parliament
General Questions
First Minister’s Questions
Members’ Business — S5M-02310 Lewis Macdonald: Co-investment in the UK Oil and Gas Sector
Stage 3 Proceedings: Budget (Scotland) Bill
