Why I strongly disagree. You wrote “How does a voter chose a candidate? They come up with a probability-adjusted valuation. They multiple the chance of each outcome versus the value of that outcome. The result is one number. They chose the candidate that maximizes that number for them.”

Almost all voters would not understand those sentences. I would bet a very large amount of money on that. Ask any person on the street “do you come up with a probability-adjusted valuation” when making your decision? See what happens next.