How to win the White House from 3rd place

After one term in the Senate, the Democrat from New York joined the Cabinet of an old rival as Secretary of State. A bid for the White House came next. Northern and Southern Democrats paved a smooth road to victory. But the 12th Amendment threatened to derail the will of the people and put the presidency in the hands of Congress.

John Quincy Adams won the presidency having lost the Electoral College and the popular vote. The House of Representatives only elected one President in their former chamber — pictured above. Photo Credit: painter Samuel F. B. Morse’s depiction of evening business. National Gallery of Art

The Democrat was Martin Van Buren, not Hillary Clinton. The year was 1836. The opposing party was not the GOP, but the Whig Party. The Whigs dreamed of a Congress that reigns supreme over a rubber stamp presidency. Many Whigs aspired to the highest office, but Van Buren’s popularity and organization were hard to match. If an Electoral College majority could not be won, perhaps they could deny Van Buren of his majority. The Whigs nominated four candidates — a collusion ticket — because they believed they could win the fight in the House of Representatives.

The battle raged. Votes were counted. Some electors won, most lost. Doors swung wide open in state houses for winners to cast their electoral votes. The state Secretaries of State — a far less glamorous job than it sounds — signed the certificates and couriered them to Washington. As the horses sped toward the Capitol, the elite killed the time with tobacco, whiskey, and math — Electoral College math. Did anyone have a 148 electoral vote majority? Van Buren’s count was 170. The vicious battle was over. A fight in the House was not to be.

At least 3 candidates must win votes or two candidates must tie in the Electoral College for an election in the House. Otherwise, one of two candidates is guaranteed a majority.

All elected presidents in living memory have won a majority in the Electoral College. Only twice in American history — in 1801 and 1825 — did the House choose the President. The House tallies votes in a strange way. Each state only gets one vote, and the majority of a quorum of a state’s delegation must agree on how to cast it. Wyoming’s sole congressman has much power as the 36 members of the Texas delegation. The winner of a majority of delegations becomes President. If no candidate wins a majority, the House keeps trying until a majority is reached.

Prevent a majority in the Electoral College

Suppose Trump wins the nomination in July. The Republicans could look back at that historic 1836 election for some inspiration. They just might succeed where the Whigs failed. The strategy: nominate an establishment Republican as an independent. Even if that candidate fails to win a majority, if they won enough states to deny the other candidates a majority as well, the House would elect the President.

Independents can win broad support. Two major party candidates Bill Clinton (D) and George HW Bush (R) faced self-funded Ross Perot (Reform). Perot won almost 20% of the popular vote without winning a single state. Some say he tipped the balance in Clinton’s favor. Photo Credit: Washington University of St. Louis Library

Do independents ever win states? Independents sometimes win significant popular votes and broad national support. Over the past century, only in three elections — shown in green — did an independent win electoral votes.

If recent history repeats itself, Trump’s dominance over his Republican rivals in the primaries suggests that an independent ticket is doomed to failure. Conventional wisdom also tells us that independents never win. Instead, independents siphon votes from major tickets to tip the balance. In 1992, over 19 million Americans (~20%) voted for Ross Perot, but he lost every state gift-wrapping a lopsided victory to Bill Clinton over his rival George HW Bush. In 2000, Al Gore suffered a similar fate when 2.8 million liberal voters supported Ralph Nader, but Nader also did not win a single state. In US Presidential Elections, the popular vote is symbolic. Simply put, if you can’t win a state, you stand no chance.

How much does an independent need to win? The nine smallest margins over the majority threshold in the Electoral College are colored blue. Some states and regions with similar electoral votes are shown for comparison (red). The independent needs to win enough electoral votes (in red) to capture the majority margin (in blue). Midwest: ND, SD, NE, KS, MN, IA, MO, WI, IL, MI, IN, OH, MI. South: OK, AK, LA, AL, MS, GA, NC, SC, TN, KY, WV, VA.

How could 2016 be different? Suppose Clinton and Trump become the nominees. They would compete in a deeply divided country. The closer the race, the more open the path to an election run-off in the House. In fact, a popular independent candidate can turn the tables solely by capturing the would-be winner’s electoral vote margin (plus one) over the 270 majority threshold. No Republican nominee has ever lost the resources and organization of its nominating party to an independent. The party could set a new precedent this year.

The last independent to win electoral votes was George Wallace in 1968. Interestingly, had Hubert Humphrey won 3% more votes in California, Richard Nixon’s majority would have been lost, the election would have gone to the House, and a Democrat-controlled House might have taken the presidency for Humphrey.

What if Nader won a state? Many blame Ralph Nader (Green Party) for tipping the balance in favor of Republicans. In 2000, he won almost 2.9 million popular votes but not a single state. If Nader took a small state from Bush like Wyoming, the House would have elected the President. Photo Credit: Ralph Nader’s Twitter Account

To see how an independent could throw the election into the House, consider the 2000 election in which Bush won an Electoral College majority by 2 votes. In that election, if Nader had won a little over half of Wyoming’s turnout — about 109,000 votes or less than 1% of the popular vote — then Bush’s lead would have shrunk from a 271 electoral vote majority to an electoral vote plurality of 268 votes. The House would have decided the election instead of the Supreme Court.

If you find the right independent candidate with the support of a highly organized major party, they stand a chance to win states much better than traditional minor party candidates like Nader and Perot. In some scenarios, it only takes winning Wyoming and the House to game the system.

The campaign should try to win Republican strongholds (e.g. Utah) where Trump is weakest and Democrat registration is relatively low. If the margin is small, the independent can avoid a very difficult national competition against Hillary Clinton. Since the goal is not to win the Electoral College, the independent does not need to be on every state’s ballot.

Suppose Clinton or Trump garner double the majority margin of Bush in 2004. If an independent joined the race and won Texas, the majority would be lost and the election would be thrown to the House. The congressional leadership’s command of party unity would then be put to the ultimate test.

Win the Republican-controlled House

Republicans command 33 of the 51 voting House delegations — a stronger advantage than if every member’s vote counted equally. Unlikely though it may be, a candidate can win the Presidency while losing a majority of the House. The standard strategy to pass laws wastes resources on Republicans in Democrat-majority delegations. The leadership must rally the troops, but with a new, unfamiliar calculus.

An independent needs to win House delegations. 33 states are Republican-majority delegations, 14 states (& DC) are Democrat-majority delegations, and 3 states are tied.

House strategy: win small delegations and Democrat-weak delegations first, then expand outward. Republican support in Democrat-majority delegations only help the leadership symbolically. Shown in blue are the number of Republican House members needed to win each state’s delegation. All other delegations are excluded. Montana needs only 1 Republican to support the independent while Texas needs 19 Republicans. In the most pathological case, House leadership must have at least 19% of House members and 33% of Republicans to elect their favored independent candidate as President. Credit: Damian Eads

Could Republicans unify at least 26 delegations around a 3rd place independent? In one scenario, the independent can win with 83 votes in the top 26 strongest Republican delegations. In reality, the leadership needs much broader support. The fallout of ignoring the will of voters with a 3rd place candidate may be too great. It would be even worse if the will of a majority or supermajority of House members are also ignored. Nuclear options rarely come without consequences. If Trump’s rise already endangers the GOP’s very existence, what other options do party elite have to stop him?

There was no Electoral College majority in 1800. The following year, Thomas Jefferson became the first President elected by the US House of Representatives. Credit: artist Rembrandt Peale’s 1799 portrait of Jefferson — conserved by the National Portrait Gallery

The 1800 election led to no victor. It was February 11, 1801 — 3 years before the 12th Amendment so the rules were a little different. A question in some people’s minds: if it was the first time the House would choose the President, would it be the last? 14 years — not even a generation — passed since the first American experiment failed, the Articles of Confederation.

The Federalists had a trick up their sleeve to keep Thomas Jefferson from victory. They rallied around Burr, their most despised man’s running mate. Round after round, no one budged. The chamber grew tired as candles blew low. Late in the hour, they squinted in darkness. Could you expect compromise in a group so polarized? After 36 rounds of voting, abstentions tipped the balance in Jefferson’s favor.

Days of deadlock? An excerpt from the 1801 Annals of Congress (page 1027) certifying Thomas Jefferson as the winner after 36 floor votes. Credit: United States Library of Congress

The sour election battle ended. John Adams lost. In 1825, his son John Quincy Adams would also lose both the Electoral College and the popular vote, but the House of Representatives elected him President. Every elected President has won a majority of the Electoral College ever since.

Who should the GOP back?

The GOP faces a difficult challenge to nominate an independent who can win at this “Deny Majority” strategy. The Whigs planned to siphon votes from Van Buren with four unique candidates. However bizarre, a multi-candidate ticket insures for untested candidate who may fall hard. If one candidate can’t win a state, perhaps the others can. Moreover, multiple independent wins can be combined to capture the majority margin together.

Cruz: Tea Party crusader or Republican savior? Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) pauses at his desk in the US Senate Chamber. Some consider Cruz the only Republican still in the nomination race who could defeat Donald Trump. Photo Credit: United States Senate

Let’s not ignore Cruz. Despite a strained rapport with his party, Cruz perseveres where others have fallen in the face of Trump’s demagoguery. The Republican elites have two options: they can continue to deny a change of their base or they can adapt to it, perhaps by endorsing Cruz. Jeb Bush’s recent endorsement may be an indication of this.

In 1948, the Democrats split into two parties. The newly formed States’ Rights Democrats sought to protest the burgeoning civil rights agenda in the Democrats’ platform. Their nominee, Strom Thurmond, won over a million votes, 4 states, and 38 electoral votes. The Republican party also splintered. Over a million Americans cast their vote for Progressive Party’s nominee Henry Wallace but he failed to win a single electoral vote. A unified GOP might have shifted California and Illinois to deny Truman’s electoral majority. Dewey would have had a second chance in a Republican-majority House.

How important is your vote? A victorious Harry Truman (D) holds a famous issue of the Chicago Daily Tribune. The headline declares victory for his opponent Thomas Dewey (R). Dewey almost had the opportunity to compete for election in a house controlled by his party if only he had won 0.4% more votes in California and 0.8% more votes in Illinois. Photo Credit: Byron Rollins, Associated Press

The primaries offer candidates a golden opportunity to demonstrate their electability and iron out the kinks before the general election. A single, fresh independent is an uncertain gamble. Failure will only distance Republicans from their base with nothing to show for it.

The venue for a presidential election if no candidate wins an Electoral College majority. The chamber has never been used for a floor vote to elect a President. The current and 114th United States Congress faces the camera. All Representatives pictured face reelection contests to be eligible to vote in a House election. In such a scenario, the House’s first ballot occurs on January 6, 2017. If the house fails to reach a majority by January 20, 2017, Vice President Joe Biden becomes acting President until the House arrives at a majority. Photo Credit: the Official Portrait of the United States Congress

In conclusion…

Voters don’t want politicians, they want outsiders. Republicans would be wise to choose a candidate who resonates with both the elite and disillusioned voters alike. Perhaps they could turn to a business leader whose reputation and virtues command respect, but who is also a decisive, consistent leader who is not emboldened by false praise.

The establishment masters admonish voters to know their place, be practical, and vote for their favored candidates, but this is wishful thinking. If the Republican-led Congress wants to give the people the honor to “decide” who replaces Scalia, some Americans could return the favor by letting the House decide who replaces Obama. If Republicans succeeded in such a difficult feat, they could elect a 3rd place candidate, and the GOP would come full circle to its Whig Party roots. ◼︎

Special thanks to Karen Glocer, Joseph Richards, Cedar Attanasio for reading drafts and offering substantive feedback. Postscript: I hope this remains an academic exercise.