NBA Over/Under Predictions For 2019–2020 Season

Daniel Cleary
Nov 1 · 7 min read

This year I decided to start working on a model to try and produce estimated wins for every NBA team. Based on those numbers I was going to make micro-bets on the Over/Under Win totals. I didn’t finish the model in time (or place any bets aside from the Celtics), but still wanted to make some estimated guesses, so I used a “gut” feeling model for every NBA team in regard to their over/under.

The over/under benchmarks were based on win totals that we initially listed by Vegas back in the summer. I made my picks back on August 4th, and I have not changed any of the predictions since the beginning of the season (as you can tell by my prediction about taking the over on the Warriors, *cue face palm)


Atlanta Hawks

Line: 36 wins
Pick: Under
Rationale: This team put up 29 wins last year, thus a 7 win jump seems a little optimistic to me. I’m not a huge fan of either of their draft picks, but do acknowledge that a core containing Trae Young and John Collins has potential to grow. Defense is going to be a huge question mark for this team, I can easily see a lot of their games ending with scores in the ~120s. This team is a Trae Young injury away from being terrible.

Boston Celtics

Line: 49.5
Pick: Under
Rationale: This team won 49 games last year, and I think they lost more than they gained this off season. They lost their two highest producers in Al Horford and Kyrie Irving. I think the Kemba Walker addition is a down grade, and I haven’t fully bought in on JT and JB blossoming into all star level producers.

Brooklyn Nets

Line: 47
Pick: Under
Rationale: While Kyrie had a great year last year, there will inevitably be some time needed for proper chemistry to form on this team. I think the loss of Ed Davis is highly overlooked (as is his production, always). 44 seems like the number to me.

Charolette Bobcats

Line: 24
Pick: Over
Rationale: I actually think Terry Rozier has a chance to be a high level player in this league. I also think the Kemba Walker exit isn’t going to hurt as much as conventional wisdom does.

Chicago Bulls

Line: 30.5
Pick: Under
Rationale: There’s a chance Lauri and Wendall Carter develop and this young core puts up close to 36 wins. I also think there’s a chance that these young players have another year of growing pains. I’m probably being swayed by my opinion that Zach Lavine is just an average player (so far) as well.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Line: 24
Pick: Under
Rationale: Who knows how many minutes Love will play, or if he’ll even be on the team come February. Sexton had an abysmal rookie year, and their two best players (Nance and TT) play the same position. The post Lebron era of mediocrity will continue on.

Dallas Mavericks

Line: 41
Pick: Under
Rationale: This was a tough one. I’m pretty pessimistic (but hopeful) about KP’s production this year. Big guys and injuries just usually don’t end well, and he has been out for over a year. With that being said, the Mavericks were able to rid themselves of their worst player, Harrison Barnes, picked up a reliable wing in Delon Wright, and Luka could develop into an All-Star this year.

Denver Nuggets

Line: 52
Pick: Over
Rationale: Mostly familiar faces in Denver, with a developing core of young players. I think we will see a similar year to last with a final win total around 54.

Detroit Pistons

Line: 37.5
Pick: Under
Rationale: Someone please get Drummond out of Detroit. They have wasted his talents over the years. I have 0 faith in the Pistons.

Golden State Warriors

Line: 47
Pick: Over
Rationale: At the time this didn’t feel so ridiculous…

Houston Rockets

Line: 52
Pick: Under
Rationale: I’m not a huge fan of Russel and Harden together, but I felt similarly when CP3 made his way to Houston and that seemed to work out pretty well. But, 52 games is a lot to win in a loaded west. I think Harden is going to play under 70 games and this team will round out in the high 40s.

Indiana Pacers

Line: 48.5
Pick: Under
Rationale: Seems too high for me. Losing Young and Bojan will be felt more than I think people anticipate. Brogdon is a great add, but I think there will be a learning curve in regard to getting this new PG associated with a brand new team. If Oladipo isn’t 100%, these Pacers could top out at 42 wins.

Los Angeles Clippers

Line: 55.5
Pick: Over
Rationale: The Clippers are my favorite to win the title. I think they have the chance to be a 60 win team, but I don’t see PG or Kawhi playing more than 60 games. Health and rest will probably keep this team from winning 56 games, but we’ll see.

Los Angeles Lakers

Line: 51.5
Pick: Under
Rationale: Taking the under on Lebron’s regular season win total is a pretty safe bet. This team is an Anthony Davis injury away from barely making the playoffs.

Memphis Grizzles

Line: 25.5
Pick: Over
Rationale: Andre Iguodala is an x-factor here and has the potential to swing this pick. This team won 33 games last year and I think the Mike Conley departure is being overstated in the line here, especially with the addition of a solid player in Tyus Jones.

Miami Heat

Line: 43.5
Pick: Under
Rationale: Whiteside and Richardson produced at a high level for this team last year. The addition of Butler is huge and has the possibility to replace the production from two key loses. I think their win total will stay pretty close to what they were at last year (39 wins).

Milwaukee Bucks

Line: 57
Pick: Over
Rationale: It’s really hard to win 58 games and I acknowledge that. But I think this Bucks team has a chip on their shoulder from last year, and the addition of Wes Matthews will go a long way. I think another MVP year from Giannis is a very real possibility.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Line: 35
Pick: Under
Rationale: I am proud to say that I have never ever been an Andrew Wiggins fan. His college numbers were not great, and he hasn’t produced any where near to an all star level (despite being paid as one). I feel for KAT, it’s been pretty tough for him in Minnesota over the past few years. Until Wiggins is off the team, I will continue to take the under on the Wolves.

New Orleans Pelicans

Line: 39
Pick: Under
Rationale: I do think Zion has the chance to be the best player on the planet in a few years. But for this upcoming year I think he will face some growing pains and the inevitable rookie slump come February. That combined with my strong view of Brandom Ingram being severely overrated leads me to picking the under on this young team out west.

New York Knicks

Line: 27
Pick: Over
Rationale: Ugh, my Knicks with another big swing and a miss this summer. With that being said, I think there is a real motivation to compete and try and win games for this team and organization. A front court of Robinson and Randle could be pretty scary. Scary enough for me to take the over on this one.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Line: 31
Pick: Over
Rationale: This team still has some very solid players. Adams, Gallo, SGA, Nerlens, and CP3 is a great unit that I think is going to surprise a lot of people. This is my dark horse team to sneak into the playoffs, and at 7.5:1 odds, I would take that bet.

Orlando Magic

Line: 40.5
Pick: Under
Rationale: Not a big Aaron Gordon fan. Big Mo Bamba fan, but it’s unfortunate that both him and Vucevic play the same position.

Philadelphia 76ers
Line: 54.5
Pick: Over
Rationale: This team has a super high ceiling. Between their size, athleticism, and play making abilities across every position, they are going to be a force. The semi-lack of shooting is definitely a worry, but given their weak division and conference , I can see this team racking up a ton of wins.

Phoenix Suns
Line: 27
Pick: Over
Rationale: The addition of Rubio will be a huge help, as their point guard rotation was pretty awful. Baynes is a great snag as well. Further development from some young players and this team could crack 30 wins (optimistically speaking).

Portland Trailblazers
Line: 47.5
Pick: Over
Rationale: I love the Whiteside pick up. A full year of Rodney Hood, and a steady hand on the wheel from Dame/CJ can lead this team to have a similarly successful year as they experienced last year (53 wins).

Sacramento Kings
Line: 37
Pick: Under
Rationale: The Kings put together a great year last year. I would take the under on this one solely due to the loss of WCS.

San Antonia Spurs

Line: 43.5
Pick: Over
Rationale: This team won 48 games last year with an injured and understaffed roster. With Murray coming back, I think this team is poised to get over 43.5 wins.

Toronto Raptors
Line: 45
Pick: Under
Rationale: Obviously losing Kawhi is going to have a major impact on this team, as is the loss of Danny Green. I think it’s going to take some time for the Raptors to figure out what type of team they are. An aging Gasol/Lowry spells troubles for the former champs.

Utah Jazz

Line: 52.5
Pick: Under
Rationale: The Conley pick up is definitely an upgrade, but I think its being over emphasized. I also think the loss of Favors is going to really hurt them defensively. This is a tough call to make, could see this team getting 55 wins, could see them getting 50.

Washington Wizards
Line: 28.5
Pick: Under
Rationale: This team may have the worst starting lineup in the league. I just don’t see where these wins are going to come from, and there will be a heavy incentive to tank as the season plays out.

Phew, thats a wrap. This is my first time putting something like this together. I’ll check back in about half way through the season to see how naive some of these statements now seem.

Daniel Cleary

Written by

Co-Founder @ Up2Code (https://www.up2code.nyc/), Basketball Junkie, and Margarita Enthusiast

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