Speaking of “possible patterns of ocean drift that might help us,” here’s a visualization of ocean currents created by NASA: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003800/a003827/ and here’s one specific to the Mediterranean: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/details.cgi?aid=3820 These visualizations aren’t specific to our dates of interest, but they do show an interesting pattern. Ocean currents are apparently relatively stable over time. Most interesting of all, at least to me, is that the predominant current between Italy and Northern Africa looks like it tends to flow away from Italy and back down the North African coast. So, I would guess a significant number of bodies, wreckage and belongings (and survivors?) from the area around Tripoli are probably going to end up in Northeastern Libya.