Apple‘s Greatest Risk: Why Foldable Phones Matter

8 min readSep 3, 2020

I could write about smartphones, especially the future of the smartphone industry, forever. But to prevent this from reaching disproportionate lengths, I will attempt to restrain my urge to do so.

I am in the process of writing a book that details the kairos (Greek word meaning the ideal moment in time) that determines the success of products, and just concluded a chapter specifically on smartphones. Given the diametric responses to foldable phones over the last year, with responses ranging from “folding phones are pointless?” to “this is the future of smartphones,” I decided to take parts of my smartphone chapter and publish them to help explain why foldable phones are so important, and how they could change the dynamics of the entire industry.

The First Future

If you recall the title of this little essay, I suggest that Apple is a company in peril. Allow me to provide a little more historical context to clarify that assertion:

Smartphones in their current manifestation can be traced back to the original iPhone reveal, which can be traced back to the early PDA’s and personal computers of the late 90’s and early 2000’s.

Conceptually, the origins of the modern smartphone can be traced back even further; to the science-fiction titans of the early 70’s and even further to a 1926 quote from inventor Nikola Tesla:

“When wireless is perfectly applied, the whole earth will be converted into a huge brain, which in fact it is, all things being particles of a real and rhythmic whole. We shall be able to communicate with one another instantly, irrespective of distance. Not only this, but through television and telephony we shall see and hear one another as perfectly as though we were face to face, despite intervening distances of thousands of miles; and the instruments through which we shall be able to do his will be amazingly simple compared with our present telephone. A man will be able to carry one in his vest pocket.” (1)

The first introduction of cellphone design, before getting into smartphones themselves, was created by Martin Cooper in 1973 after being inspired by Captain Kirk’s use of his communicator on the television show Star Trek. The direct thread of Nikola Tesla’s ultramodern imaginings to the futuristic models showcased in early science-fiction cinema is self-evident.

The age of smartphones happened to occur at the same time-period as the turn of the century.

While some will argue the Simon Personal Communicator in 1995 was the first smartphone, and some will claim that the title is more appropriately attributed to the 2006 LG Prada or the 2007 iPhone, it is safe to classify all of these attempts at an (at the time) post-modern interpretation of the cellphone.

2006 LG Prada (Left) and original 2007 iPhone (Right)

Prior to the iPhone’s definitive form, cellphones themselves arrived in many shapes and sizes, with several different keyboard configurations and numerous diverse arguments for the future of cellphone design. Some were horizontal, some rotated, and some even arrived with touchscreens (though using an engineering process very different than a modern touchscreen).

It is important to remember that, contextually, the turn of the twenty first century was anticipated as a moment in time that would mark entrance of the world into the age of consumer computers, internet, and futurism. The sudden availability and affordability of personal computers sent many industries into a frenzy to attempt to ‘set in stone’ the rhetorical design that would define the new millennium.

Illustration depicting the concept of “Video Conferencing” (1920)

In fact, the year 2000 represented the imagination of so many that there were countless predictions as to what life would be post-1999. From aerial travel predictions in the early 1900’s, to video conferencing predictions in 1964, the year 2000 was this ethereal period of wonder- a future yet to be shaped. (2)

The science-fiction media of the twentieth century set people’s expectations high, and cellphone manufacturers were desperately trying to create the ‘ultramodern’ standard that would represent that true transition into the ‘future’.

As we are all likely familiar, the first device to fully capture the promise of the twenty-first century futurism was the original iPhone, and it is from the iPhone’s primordial image that the core design rhetoric of modern smartphones is inherited. While it may not have been the first touchscreen, the first internet capable, the first with a digital store, or even the first to do all those things in one device- it was the first device to successfully reimage the concept of the cellphone into that representative of post-modernism. It captured the imagination of so many because of its reimagining of the cellphone to reflect the futuristic aspirations of the population.

The New Future

The overwhelming prevalence of smartphones and variety of smartphone manufacturers a decade after the first smartphone launch have entirely altered current moment in time. It has become more and more difficult to differentiate the products, and with the rapid development and accessibility of mobile technologies, smartphones, in their current form, have in-turn become significantly less ‘magical’. The future of mobile communication as portrayed in classic science fiction has been not only met, but completely exceeded in its most practical form, setting the stage for a repeat similar to the market shift created by the iPhone in 2007.

Now, a few details of this current moment in time:

· Smartphone growth has become relatively stagnate (even prior to the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic), mirroring the time of flip-phones and feature phones before the introduction of the iPhone. (3) (4)

· Apple’s iPhone makes up most of their profits, which means if their primary revenue stream happens to fall, so does the major source of their profits. (5)

· Apple’s competitors have increased their value year after year, and the Android operating system has matured to, to some, a just as smooth or smoother experience than iOS.

· Samsung’s screen technology and storage hardware dominance continues to provide their Galaxy smartphones a technical and feature advantage. (7)

· Apple has garnered criticism for their seemingly iterative updates.

· Future-forward branding is increasingly being attributed to competition.

For a moment, consider the significant similarities between the current moment and the 2007 moment that spring-boarded (techies will get this joke) the iPhone to its sovereign status. We have a stagnant market with several companies vying to create the next representative of the future, and taking technical risks like curved displays, under-screen fingerprint readers, foldable displays, under-screen cameras, novel camera modules, biosensors, high refresh rates, and more.

As my own personal prediction, while many of the unique and risky devices released in the last couple years have critically failed to garner any real attention or praise, Samsung’s foldable phones have recently proven themselves to provide a legitimately new and noteworthy experience. Despite the durability concerns introduced by the first Galaxy Fold, the reception by the media and those consumers that ponied-up the $2000 for the device were generally good- myself included.

A year later, Samsung has introduced more foldable devices that, while still expensive, were more durable, more attainable, and sold significantly better. (8) With the public release of the Galaxy Z Fold 2 around the corner, a device already heavily praised for its polish over its predecessor, the future of the industry is becoming more obvious.

Early reports indicate that other Android manufacturers will also attempt to create foldable devices in 2021, implying that the foldable form-factor has undoubtedly solidified itself as the most compelling product category currently contesting the very concept of the next evolution of mobile communication. (9)

The risk to Apple is not necessarily their bottom line- they will likely find plenty of success with their transition into services like Apple TV, and the mountain of money they have stashed away will certainly provide them with enough to exist for decades to come. The primary concern posed by this moment in time is Apple’s dwindling grasp over the idea that they are the most future-forward brand. With Samsung in control of the hot new hardware, Apple is at risk of appearing outdated and stale, the same way they made Nokia appear outdated and stale in 2007. That public perception is incredibly strong, cannot be overstated, and has the potential to take the industry by storm (just ask Tesla). As the price of foldable phones get lower and lower, and the technology becomes more sophisticated, it’s only a matter of time before the traditional slab-style phone starts to look like a relic of the past.

With that context in mind, I cannot help but see Apple is comparable to Nokia in this moment, a market leader updating slowly and iteratively under the comforting veil of their previous success, certain that other brands desperately trying to redefine the smartphone category are doing so in futility- that their dominance is impossible to topple. It reminds me of a pertinent quote by Captain Jean-Luc Picard, a quote which we should have all learned is true, by now :