Geneva, Saturday, 10:15
This is a work of fiction.
Any resemblance to actual events or to real persons, dead or alive is, naturally, strictly coincidental.
42
Geneva
Sunday, 10:15
“The World Health Organization’s national collaboration centres are in the process of isolating the virus and performing risk analysis. They are looking for genetic changes in the strains that we’ve identified over the past few weeks. The predominant strains are being determined and are provided for free to vaccine producers,” said Dr Van Deymin. He looked tired but confident as he addressed a small group of health experts. They had all gathered at the World Health Organization in Geneva, for an international emergency briefing the Director General had called. The experts, despite the fact they flew in on short notice from four corners of the Earth, were alert and focused.
“What is the current production capacity?” asked one of the men, his strong Australian accent bringing smiles to the faces of some of the others. Dr Van Deymin turned to a grey-haired man, the representative of the pharmaceutical companies who sat by his side.
“Dr Stein, could you please answer this question for us?” he said.
“Of course, Dr Van Deymin,” said the grey-haired man. “Every year we produce 350 million seasonal flu-vaccines, combining three strains which are identified to be the most dominant that year. Each year in September and February respectively, the WHO Global Influenza Programme announces the influenza strains for production of the next seasonal vaccines. The flu season generally begins in May or June in the southern hemisphere and in November or December in the northern hemisphere. This leaves us a very small window. It takes six months to produce each seasonal flu vaccine. If laboratories will work at maximum production capacity, in three shifts, they could produce about five-hundred-million trivalent vaccines a year. That means that every vaccine contains antigens from three different subtypes each year. Currently these are from two type A viruses and one type B virus.”
Dr Stein took a deep breath after his monologue. A few of the experts still scribbled down some numbers and notes.
“What would happen if all the seasonal production was stopped and all the resources were turned to producing the new vaccine?” insisted the Australian health official.
“If all laboratories stopped the seasonal flu production and diverted all production capacity to producing the pandemic vaccine, then they could produce a triple number of monovalent pandemic vaccines, containing one strain, instead of the traditional combination of three strains. We are talking about one-point-five billion vaccines,” said Dr Stein.
“That’s very good news,” said the Australian health official, looking relieved.
Dr Van Deymin shook his head.
“It is good news for those who will have access to these vaccines,” he said. “But we have a world population of seven billion people. We now have three priorities: to increase the production capacity, to try to implement best-sharing practices, and to review and update the practices of use for this vaccine. It is also a personal and professional priority for me to make sure that all countries get fair access to the vaccine and to antiviral drugs.”
“How can this be done?” asked a Chinese professor, the head of the epidemiology department at the Ministry of Health in Beijing.
“I believe that resources should be allocated on the basis of case identification and geographical spread of the virus. That is, when cases are identified in a specific country, resources should be allocated to that country to fight the spread of disease, regardless of the financial ability of the government to pay for medication and vaccines,” said Dr Van Deymin. “I can see two possible scenarios: either the pandemic will advance quickly, and then resources will be stretched to the limit, or the virus will lose its ability to infect humans through increased immunity, in which case we will be able to stop the pandemic.”
Everyone around the room looked at Dr Van Deymin. He analysed the situation with focus and clarity, which inspired confidence in those around him. They waited for him to continue but he had said all there was to say and was not in the habit of repeating things twice.
“It is the first time in history that a virus has given us such early warning,” he concluded, and adjourned the meeting.
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Link to the beginning of the series, here below:
