Please strongly encourage physical isolation to your audience now. You will be saving lives and helping mitigate catastrophe.
Hollywood and music celebrities, athletes, youtube and instagram stars, podcast hosts, bloggers, companies with mailing lists, social media platform companies…please take this simple action immediately. Help people who don’t fully understand the situation yet to take this seriously and being physical isolation.
The total number of people infected is much much higher than the reported numbers (we aren’t doing the testing in the US to know how many people are infected, but many hospitals are already getting overwhelmed in US cities).
The number of people infected doubles in about 4 days with normal social behavior. Do the math on 2–3% death rate for a large percent of the total population.
With proper* physical isolation, the transmission stops. This virus is transmitted via physical human contact (direct and indirect).
Two months of complete social isolation and the pandemic is over**. Otherwise, this could continue with no clear end in sight, and kill more Americans than the wars in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan combined.
I wish we had ubiquitous, early, accurate testing already in place like South Korea so we could do a smart quarantine. But we don’t***. So we need a total quarantine.
We don’t have to wait for the government to enforce it with the police and national guard. We can recognize the need and self-organize to do what needs done. That is self-governance — of, for, and by the people.
We are too focused on the role of our elected leaders; this country was founded on the ideal of self-governance with intentionally very limited representative power.
China has a strong top down government and was able to enforce quarantine, build hospitals quickly, disinfect entire cities, put hazmat gear on all the workers. Our government is not currently prepared to do that. And, while effective, nobody would choose to be in a Wuhan-type enforced quarantine. If there was ever a good time for Americans to take back their sovereignty and lead themselves, this is it.
“Ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do for your country.” — John F. Kennedy
PS. Addressing counter positions:
1. Accelerationsim: everyone is going to get it eventually anyway so no use prolonging it — lets get it over with, we’ll lose a lot of people but thats natural selection and herd immunity will develop.
2. UK type position: let’s try to minimally slow the progression so the medical system isn’t overwhelmed, but not try to stop it as we need to move towards herd immunity eventually.
I think these positions are both irresponsible and misguided for several reasons:
- We do not yet know if immunity will be adequately conferred (for anyone, for everyone, for how long, against which mutations…)
- The spike effects of accelerationsim will crush the medical system and critical infrastructure, causing profound and unnecessary catastrophe.
- The world is rapidly working on better diagnostics for smart quarantine, vaccines, treatments, up-leveling the medical system, etc. Slowing the infection rate allows time for better solutions to emerge, even if social isolation isn’t a full solution on its own. And time for better relevant info to become clear.
- People will be hit hard economically by isolation, but they will be hit hard no matter what. This is actually a real global catastrophic issue. People will be hit less hard by figuring out how to isolate voluntarily, than they will by getting infected, going to the ICU, being seriously ill for 1–2 months where they cant work at all and are a burden on their family and other people, and racking up medical bills they will probably have to bankrupt.
*“Proper” isolation includes proper hygiene protocols, special considerations for apartment builds with shared air ducts, etc.
*Saying the “pandemic” is over doesn’t mean the situation will be fully resolved. It means that whatever challenges remain should be manageable at a sub-pandemic level, via diagnostics mediated smart quarantine, a better prepared health care system, etc.
***Better diagnostic technologies are under rapid development, but are still a ways out. They should be coming online to support coming off of prophylactic isolation and moving to smart quarantine.