I have had these articles stuck in tab-purgatory for quite awhile, but I’m glad to have finally read them. …

Perhaps you’ve seen a thread going around Twitter today that claims to invoke game theory to explain the political climate of the day. And like a certain movie whose premise is founded on game theory, it never fully shows a real example of game theory. …

They said X about Y when they did Z, but said Not-X about Not-Y when THEY did Z! What a hypocrite!

Does that convince anyone? Does that ever work? I don’t think it does, other than to signal something to people who think similarly. And it gets plenty of RTs…

A follow-up from yesterday’s post about using betting markets to evaluate prediction models; today’s post will be using the Brier Score calculation on a state-by-state basis. It’s used very often in weather forecasting to see measure how often it predicts rain and scores it based on confidence. …

As we get closer to the U.S. Presidential election, there has been a large divergence between popular prediction models. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, arguably the most famous prediction model, has upset the conventional wisdom of a very likely Hillary Clinton victory. His three models have converged around 65%. …

Article updated at 2016/11/05 12:30 AM EDT, thanks to Peter Owen on Twitter for some correction with the math. Moves Trump from 6%->12.3% chance having a favorable polling error.

At 2016/11/04 12:22 PM EDT, FiveThirtyEight’s Polls-Only had Clinton leading by the following numbers: Clinton 48.5– Trump 45.2, putting Clinton up…

A few tweets popped into my timeline about how analytical types gauge contracts in hockey. I won’t go into specific player examples, but did want to make a few points about how teams can benefit from having small gambles with upside, rather than signing players with contracts that later become…

This morning, I saw an article from Bloomberg that placed blame on Millennials for not watching the Olympics. It was almost too early in the morning to deal with something that (yet again 🙄) is blaming some larger problem on a large & diverse group of young adults.