I have had these articles stuck in tab-purgatory for quite awhile, but I’m glad to have finally read them. …

Perhaps you’ve seen a thread going around Twitter today that claims to invoke game theory to explain the political climate of the day. And like a certain movie whose premise is founded on game theory, it never fully shows a real example of game theory. …

Many times we try to catch pundits in a trap. I’m not sure it works. — They said X about Y when they did Z, but said Not-X about Not-Y when THEY did Z! What a hypocrite! Does that convince anyone? Does that ever work? I don’t think it does, other than to signal something to people who think similarly. And it gets plenty of RTs…

A follow-up from yesterday’s post about using betting markets to evaluate prediction models; today’s post will be using the Brier Score calculation on a state-by-state basis. It’s used very often in weather forecasting to see measure how often it predicts rain and scores it based on confidence. …

A.K.A Put your money where your mouth is! — As we get closer to the U.S. Presidential election, there has been a large divergence between popular prediction models. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, arguably the most famous prediction model, has upset the conventional wisdom of a very likely Hillary Clinton victory. His three models have converged around 65%. …

4 more days. 4 more days. Whoosah. Whoosah. — Article updated at 2016/11/05 12:30 AM EDT, thanks to Peter Owen on Twitter for some correction with the math. Moves Trump from 6%->12.3% chance having a favorable polling error. At 2016/11/04 12:22 PM EDT, FiveThirtyEight’s Polls-Only had Clinton leading by the following numbers: Clinton 48.5– Trump 45.2, putting Clinton up…

A few tweets popped into my timeline about how analytical types gauge contracts in hockey. I won’t go into specific player examples, but did want to make a few points about how teams can benefit from having small gambles with upside, rather than signing players with contracts that later become…

This morning, I saw an article from Bloomberg that placed blame on Millennials for not watching the Olympics. It was almost too early in the morning to deal with something that (yet again 🙄) is blaming some larger problem on a large & diverse group of young adults.

The whole country is reeling after a milestone comeback win in Omaha to take the College World Series. And although leaders of the Chanticleers crowing over their victory, it seems many South Carolinians may not even know what they had actually cheered for. That confusion over what the win might…