Economy Week Ahead: Factory Orders, Trade Data from the U.S. and China, Bank of England Rate Decision

Darico Ecosystem Coin
Nov 4 · 2 min read

Monday

The U.S. Commerce Department releases figures on factory orders for September. Preliminary estimates showed orders for durable goods decreased by 1.1% in September compared with the previous month. The updated factory data will come as concerns over a global manufacturing slowdown presist. Recently released surveys of purchasing managers in the U.S., U.K. and much of Asia indicated factory activity continued to weaken in October, as uncertainties around trade tensions continued.

Tuesday

The Commerce department issues international trade figures for September. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal forecast the trade deficit narrowed to $52.2 billion in September from $54.9 billion in August. Tuesday’s report will offer insight into U.S. consumers’ willingness to spend on goods from abroad and whether the Trump administration is making progress in its efforts to reduce the trade deficit between the U.S. and its major trading partners. Last week’s GDP report indicated trade was mostly neutral in the third quarter, as net exports subtracted a 0.08 percentage point from the quarter’s 1.9% growth rate.

Thursday

The Bank of England issues an interest rate decision. Officials there are likely to leave a key interest rate unchanged in the face of high levels of uncertainty about when and in what way the U.K. will leave the European Union, and who will be running the government when it does. But the Bank of England is likely to forecast continued weak economic growth into 2020, which will clear the way for a rate cut early next year, after elections and a potential January Brexit are out of the way.

Friday

China releases its own figures on trade, which are forecast to show a further drop in activity during October amid weak demand. Exports likely dropped 3.3% last month from a year earlier, compared with a 3.2% decline in September, according to initial results of a Wall Street Journal poll. That isn’t so bad compared with imports, which likely slipped 9.1% in October, extending September’s 8.5% decrease, the poll shows. Even if Beijing and Washington reach a phase 1 deal, it is unlikely to offset impacts from slowing global growth, economists say. China will issue data on inflation, another area of concern for policy makers there, on Saturday.