If I understand correctly, the expected time to collision is 133/0.000002%
Matt Mahoney
31
You can’t do division like this with probabilities. The formula of event x happening N-times in row is (probability (X))^N. In this case there is 99.999998% chance of this comet NOT colliding with earth next time. In ten orbits? 0.99999998¹⁰. And due to the way this exponentiation works the more orbits happen the more likely this collision is — increasingly so.