D-11'898 — Countdown to 01.01.2050 — Space

Space, the final frontier, the most associated topic to future, as if we had collective understanding that space is our future.
Unlike the last quarter of the 20th century, space is not making headlines yet
21st century started with the promise of Space Tourism for all.
This did not happen, Virgin Galactic has never taken a single passenger while a mere 7 space tourists have made their way to space.
It is safe to say that one of the constraint to space exploration is the very limited means of transportations. Ariane, Soyouz can only launch a few times per year and at a very high cost. This is where SpaceX’s Falcon comes into play which promises to offer significantly lower cost ($62m vs $500m per launch) .
Progress in spatial exploration in the runup to 2050 will be linked to the success or failure of this space revolution.
Controversially, however, I think the largest deciding factor in space exploration is the recent pulling of the US from the Paris Agreement on climate change.
If you have taken a look at the objectives imposed by the Paris Agreement you would know that they are tough.
Tough is actually an understatement and with the US, the biggest polluter on earth, pulling out of it, there is no chance that the objectives of temperature rising no more than 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels will be reached.
This sets in stones that, the earth as we currently know it, will cease to exist with temperature increase inevitably redrawing the map of life on earth.
Collectively as humanity, we lose with us still not having societies designed to prevent us to have reach such irrational outcomes. A moderate consolation might come in that, this setback makes it clear that having other life options such as Mars might become a necessary.
Road to Mars
Emerging space nations will be dragged into this race well before 2050. The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) + Nigeria all have very credible space programs. While there are at very different levels (Russia is far ahead of all the other combined), their research will eventually converge towards the same barriers which might lead them to collude as it has been seen during the negotiation of the Paris Agreement.
An increased traffic in space will innevitably follow and innevitably lead to tensions and a need for domination.
Very certainly, the US will dominate there as well. The recent announcement of the creation of a spatial defense units by the US Air Force goes well in that direction.
While Mars can constitute a critical pocket to preserve life in the face of the possibility of mass extinction, it would never make an easy alternative to life on earth.
These two traits of our specy point us to the next objectives:
“We are nostalgic bitches” i.e. Somehow, we are wired to always look at the past in a romantic way and we will never cease looking for outer-worlds which are earth-like.
“We are insatiably greedy” i.e. Always looking for the better option.
Reaching Mars will redefine the concept of spatial exploration, mark a new start. The new final frontier logically will be moving to outside of the Solar System
“Breakthrough Starshot” project led by Stephen Hawkins being one prime and first example of that. No sooner had Mars be reached than we will be looking at Alpha Centauri (the closest star to our solar system).
Certitudes
Space X Falcon will succeed to establish itself as a cheaper alternative to current launchers
Attempt for a manned mission to Mars before 2050
Climate Change will have spectacular effects well before 2050
Predictions
Success of a manned mission to Mars before 2050
Space Tourism to become a reality
Earth Orbit to create first geopolitical tension
