Summer of rockets
Space rockets are cool! Watching them blast off into space sparks the imagination and creates new generations of dreamers, innovators, designers and engineers. But is this a feasible mode of transport for the future? And should it be welcomed? My gut feeling is a resounding yes! Only money, time and monitoring data will tell. Space travel offers us a promising and potentially carbon reduced future; not to mention, all of the technological innovations that will undoubtedly be birthed in the process.
However, we really should address the rocket-sized elephant in the room.
Rocket Emissions
We have recently been inundated with news coverage of commercial human space flight. Sir Richard Branson (Virgin Galactic) and Jeff Bezos (Blue Origin) conducted what has got to be one of the most expensive product demos in recent history. They kicked off a new aviation industry niche called Space Tourism.
A cursory look at news headlines or listening to Joe Public at your local pub, one could be forgiven for thinking that these space rockets were single-handedly going to destroy the earth. Despite what you may have read or heard, the total number of rockes emissions, globally, is miniscule in comparison to other modes of transport.
However, this does not mean the Space Tourism industry should be left unchecked. As rocket launches increase, emissions will increase and the effects of CO2 and N2O in the stratosphere have a different kind of environmental effect. We should take this opportunity to champion a new form of travel whilst implementing the appropriate environmental safeguards.
If you want to learn more about the details behind rocket emissions, check out my appendix article — What is the effect of the Virgin Galactic Flight?
Space Tourism
July 2021 will be a historic month. It was the first marker in a new, “new” age of commercial space tourism and potentially space travel. Space. A destination that 99% of the world’s population didn’t think was in contention until billionaire’s started trolling each other over the Karman Line, suborbital vs orbital flight and asterisks.
The flights were brilliant product demos. In no uncertain terms, Space tourism is going to be an ultra luxury recreational activity. I’m sure there is going to be a Zero G & space craze. Space Hotels, Zero G dinners, parties, space walks, etc… It is a $5Bn niche segment of the aviation industry for the 1% and aspiring.
It is not space travel. You are not going to another physical location to disembark, yet. Its main purpose is recreation. It will be one of the most expensive 10min (Blue Origin) or 2hr (Virgin Galactic) fairground rides that 99% of the world’s population won’t be enjoying anytime soon. For most, the dream of going into space will only be realised through years of astronaut training or winning a golden ticket.
The allure of going into space, even for a few minutes of weightlessness should not be underestimated, nor should the extreme exhilaration of experiencing the world from a completely unique perspective. Given the means, I would happily join the queue of 600+ future passengers who have already signed up and paid between $250k.
Whilst I’m laying it all out there, I would also choose the Blue Origin experience. At a similar ticket price, the $/min experience is extorniate, BUT, IT’S A FREAKING ROCKET!!!
Space Travel is VERY different to Space Tourism
For the purposes of this article, let’s call space travel, any form of orbital flight. Orbital being anything that leaves Earth’s atmosphere and can remain in space whilst the earth rotates. Space Tourism vessels do not remain in space.
It is only in recent history we have been able to start building reusable rockets, thus making Space Travel a possibility. Yes, I know the Space Shuttle was partially reusable, but at $211Bn to build with a $576m price tag per launch, it wasn’t cheap.
In modernish history, prior to commercial airlines, the only way to travel or transport goods long distance, en masse, was by sea or land. We are nearing the point where we have the technology to include space as another medium.
Imagine a world where a payload (human or cargo) could get anywhere on earth in less than an hour…and I mean ANYWHERE. Live in London, work in New York. Your commute home will be faster, and a lot more pleasant than current public or private transport. Humanitarian aid would be transformed. Food and infrastructure relief to emergency disaster areas in less than an hour! That would be an amazing sight and a reality I would wholeheartedly welcome.
The appropriate inter-governmental environmental policies would, of course, have to be put in place:
- All rockets are fully reusable. Build once, use many times. This reduces the rocket launch and manufacturing carbon footprint.
- All rocket fuel is environmentally friendly.
- Climate-positive rocket production. Not merely Carbon-neutral. Offsetting isn’t enough and doesn’t change behaviours.
- Open technology and active knowledge sharing
Obviously there are many more but these would be my top priority. The reality we live in shows no matter how much you tax the rich, it’s not enough to dissuade their lifestyle. At minimum, we should ensure their lifestyle does not damage the climate and knowledge is shared to open the market so we can all benefit from this technology and experience the joys of space travel.
As a kid I had a dream…now I want to make money
No one is getting into the space tourism and space travel business for altruistic reasons. Musk, Bezos and Branson are in this game to make money and there is a lot of money to be made.
Elon Musk has been paving the way in the space industry since the 2000’s, dramatically reducing the cost of rocket production and launch. Expendendable rockets costing hundreds of millions of dollars is quickly becoming a thing of the past. Companies can now book SpaceX’s Falcon 9 launch services for as little as $62m. In customary Musk fashion, that isn’t enough. He’s aiming for a $2m launch cost! In 2018, NASA was spending about $152m per launch. If he can follow through on his claims, that would be 1% of what NASA pays for a launch!
SpaceX’s pitch and reputation went down very well because in May 2021, they won a $2.9Bn contract with NASA to take astronauts into orbit. That is still a small sliver of the pie. Elon Musk is laying down the foundations for a new network infrastructure via his StarLink satellites and can probably take a significant chunk of the navigation device transmisisons. I am sure Bezos, Branson and others are not far behind. Virgin Galactic has already quoted revenues up to $1Bn per ground spaceport they build.
However, their space aspirations don’t stop there. The medium (900-2500 miles) to long-haul flights(>2500 miles) in aviation are also up for grabs.
Every year, more people want to fly. Every year, emissions have increased. With so much demand, the impetus is not there to force change. The aviation industry has been asked, prodded and pressured to reduce their emissions. Unfortunately, industries only take reformative action when it will hurt their wallet not to do so. In 2018, The International Council of Clean Transporation reported that 66% of aviation’s passenger flight emissions come from medium and long haul flights.
It will take a few years before technological advances can bring the price of suborbital travel down, but down they will come. When they do, the aviation industry is going to change because they will not be the dominant force in the skies. The financial and environmental prize for Earth to Earth travel will be huge.
2041
Two decades from now, Earth to Earth is nice. Interplanetary travel and space settlement will be revolutionary. That is the ultimate goal. The race to the red planet is well and truly underway. In that time, the technological advances in the space industry will have trickled down and translated into new products, businesses and industries.
However, progress is only world progress in as far as it protects the planet. If these advances in space and settlement can offer technologies that provide green alternatives to aviation, manufacturing and transport, we need not see it as a power to destroy the earth. To move our home planet from a state of amber to green, we can see this industry as a friend of radical change, at a time when we need it most.
