Everyone knows that cigarettes are addictive and cause cancer. But it took decades for that reality to sink in. Since the 1940’s researchers have been exposing the health risks of tobacco while tobacco companies have been denying it. As recently as 1998 tobacco executives testified in court that cigarettes don’t directly cause cancer. Really? But in general we’ve been hearing about the dangers of carcinogens in tobacco for fifty years.

As scientific studies began to expose tobacco’s dirty secret, the American government rolled out nationwide anti-smoking education campaigns to curb tobacco usage. As a result of decades of public education, the smoking population of America has steadily decreased from as high as 40% in 1965 to about 18.5% today. Still, an amazingly large amount of people; about 42 million people, regularly smoke.

While education has been effective in reducing cigarette adoption, education alone will never rid society of smoking entirely. The minority that choose to smoke are a self-selecting minority, and hey, it’s a free country. It’s human nature to partake in pleasurable activities that we know present risk. As the majority of the population shed their cigarette habit, the smoking minority have been banished to designated smoking areas where they commiserate with like-minded peers.

Additionally, a government mandated “sin tax” hopes to deter smokers from temptation. Shockingly, a pack of cigarettes can cost as much as $12.85 today. Smokers are socially and financially penalized by society for their unbecoming habit.

What is the cigarette of this century?

Ian Bogost of the Atlantic prophesizes that smartphones, laptops, and video games (or all of the above) are the ‘cigarette of this century.’ Blackberry was dubbed ‘crackberry’ for good reason — you couldn’t resist checking your phone when you felt that buzz in your pocket. Today, as many as 70% Americans have smartphones and they use them unabashedly in public without shame. They are not banished to designated smartphone areas…yet. Will smartphones (and screen addiction in general) peak and then gradually be abandoned by the majority as the public begins to come to terms with the risks of excessive screen usage?

Are we really addicted to screens?

Nir Eyal, author of Hooked, a brilliant book on designing addictive product experiences found that “79 percent of smartphone owners check their device within 15 minutes of waking up every morning.” Wow. OK, so we’re hooked.

Social networks like Facebook has proven to be incredibly addictive: As many as 864 million people users login to Facebook every day. Pinterest may be even more addicting. There are 30 billion pins on Pinterest. Does each pin equate to a puff of a cigarette?

Is screen addiction destructive?

We’re hooked, but is there really significant risk to abusing computers and smartphones? Most people would admit that they may, at times, binge on Words with Friends, Netflix, and Facebook, but few would admit that their behavior is addictive or destructive. The Internet is not a drug, after all. Nicotine, caffeine, alcohol — those are dangerous drugs. My iPhone is no drug. But the reality of our glowing screens is that engaging with them stimulates the brain — dopamine sends chemical signals in your brain and you begin to form a habit, just like many non-chemical-based addictions such as sex, working, eating disorders, exercise or gambling.

Why are screens addicting?

One reason the Internet can be so addicting is the repeated satisfaction of engaging with pleasurable and stimulating experiences. Product designers often embed ‘gamification’ mechanics into product designs. Get to a new level of a game? Get a positive affirmation from your friends when you post something on Facebook? Presented with a pleasing beep when receive a text message? You’re in the “hooked model.”

How are screens as destructive as cigarettes?

Screen addiction is a relatively new topic so there is little research to support theories that smartphones are harmful to your health. How could excessive usage of screens prove to be harmful? Time is your most valuable currency. The consequence of spending too much time on addictive apps and website is as simple as the notion of opportunity cost. Time you are ‘wasting’ on screens could be taking away much time other valuable activities, like social activities, exercise, productivity, or any other constructive activity — like working or interacting with loved ones.

And of course there are physical risks of using your screen too much. You could get in a car accident while texting-and-driving, develop carpal tunnel syndrome in your wrists from typing too much, or grow obese or diabetic from living a sedentary lifestyle. Or, you could get hit by a bus because you were checking Twitter while walking across the street.

The next trend: Rejecting screens

Will there be a societal backlash to online engagement and technology now that the market is saturated? Teenagers are already bemoaning how un-cool Facebook has become. The popularity of the messaging service Snapchat may be telling — teens love Snapchat because all photos are (supposedly) deleted from Snapchat’s servers. While publishing to the web can be as permanent as getting a tattoo, Snapchat messages are as ephemeral as passing paper notes in class. A logical next teen behavior trend would be to reject digital communication altogether. Turning their backs on the Internet would, ironically, convert teenagers lifestyle to that of their own parent’s teen lifestyle, which was completely offline.

Now that smartphones have gone mainstream we, as a society, will hear more and more about the benefits of responsibly using our smartphone so that we don’t put others or ourselves at risk. Just like cigarette usage boom and decline, a government driven educational initiative focused on healthy Internet habits is pending. Will our smartphone usage go from 70% down to 18.5% just like cigarette’s gradual decline? Text me if it does.