We can’t say we weren’t warned. Janet Yellen warned us about Systemic Risk last year loud and clear:
“There has been a huge deterioration in corporate lending standards, particularly in the $1.3 trillion market for leveraged loans (a loan to a company that already has a lot of debt or is otherwise risky, usually sold by the originator to someone else.) I’m worried about the systemic risks associated with these loans.
while it would be challenging, but conceivable, to resolve a single systemic firm hit by an idiosyncratic shock with the new tools that are available, I view the prospects for resolving multiple firms, in a situation characterized by general financial panic — the situation that prevailed in September 2008 — as dim. …
There has been a lot of commentary lately about how we can make Twitter “better”. This is understandable given the noisy mess that the service has become in recent years. It is a sad state of affairs to witness its decline.
For full disclosure, I love Twitter. I own Twitter stock, I’ve been an active Twitter user since July of 2007 (having sent more than 64,000 tweets over the last 11 years, which adds up to more than 15 every single day). I’ve written many Medium posts about Twitter over the years…so this isn’t a hit piece.
But there is a problem with the conversation lately. …
So many absurd things become normalized over time.
Remember when it was strange that Central Banks did QE? Remember when Crypto Currencies first launched? Remember dial up Internet? When we first got these devices with glass screens with QWERTY keyboards?
Over time we become numb to the strange. Initially we might notice but if everyone else plays along we gradually nod our heads and fall back asleep — people fall in line with the herd.
This type of behavior is the exact reason why we have bubbles in financial markets.
Another related concept is the “career risk” factor in personal behavior. The gist is simple: you don’t get fired if you copy what everyone else does and do slightly worse than average, but if you try to be different and fail, you might get canned. …