Job Simulator was a Vive launch bundle title — that’s the main reason it’s at the penetration level it is. Over 100k Vive’s shipped with it.
There are about 250k Vives, according to the Steam hardware survey (it’s around 7m participants — so you multiply out the precentages). There are about 125k Oculus CV1’s, using that same process.
I’d figure typical penetration at about 1% top.
Using a Freemium model will help (it’s easier to buy an “unlock chapter 2” DLC than it is to pull up the store, navigate to a full game from a demo).
Low load times helps — staging areas (think about the Assassin’s Creed loading areas) will help. At least show a progress bar, I mean serious — the user is waiting for something to happen. Consider loading at a low level of detail, then ramping up as hardware allows.
The user sees a ton of Android ports in Viveport and Steam, and most of those ports are poorly executed crapware. If you distance yourself from that, you’ll get installs. It’s hard to plop down $20 for a game when the last three you did that for have been garbage — and with Valve no longer curating, that problem is only going to get far, far worse.
I’m just starting to mess with Playstation VR, but comparing it to Vive or CV1, there’s a ton less setup and everything just works when I turn it on. If I leave the Vive connected and reboot my PC, my PC won’t actually complete reboot — it’ll hang at BIOS. Steam VR crashes, sometimes it has to be started 2, 3 more times — and a lot of people are having those sorts of issues. Oculus is better, but not by a ton.
That’s where I’m hoping the Microsoft headsets will help.