Unraveling the EFL Championship
With the EFL Championship (2022–23) season over, I take a look back at what the data tells us. Can any conclusions be drawn?
Introduction:
The EFL Championship is notoriously tough, difficult to predict and full of disparity; from the have and have nots of Parachute Payments to the different playing styles on offer. But does the data offer insight into what makes a good team and what doesn't?
By using data from The Analyst (https://theanalyst.com/) I offer my thoughts across a series of data points, supported by a number of scatter and bar charts.
As its the transfer window — “here we go”!
Goals win matches don’t they?
They certainly help!
In the picture below I compare Open-play goals versus Set-piece goals. Firstly, volume of goals (bar chart), no surprise to see Burnley, Middlesbrough, Sheffield United, Sunderland and Luton Town filling five of the top-6 scoring teams. the only Play-off team missing was Coventry City (9th) who came with a late run.
But how did other teams do?
Millwall’s 8th place was gained by a disproportionate 24 goals from Set-pieces, their opponents unable to cope with the target of Jake Cooper (scatter) and what happened after first-contact. Sheffield United scoring high in both categories, whilst Coventry City scored the least from set-plays. No surprise to see the division’s struggling teams (Wigan Athletic, Reading, Cardiff City and QPR) amongst the worst for open-play goals. A lack of imagination, quality or a bit of both?
Attacking Construction:
If you can’t get your goals from well-practiced and well-executed set-pieces, then how do teams fare otherwise, i.e. when the game is more spontaneous (although sometimes within the patterns of play teams are coached to play-out on match-day)?
Do teams build-up carefully, or do they rely on transition / counterattacks? Who are the outliers?
Most fans will be well aware of the passing style approaches of Swansea City and Burnley, the ethos of Russell Martin (now Southampton) and Vincent Kompany shining through both on the pitch and in the data, but perhaps the big surprise is Coventry City, one of the lowest in terms of build-up attacks, but a vast amount of Direct Attacks, either through one quick pass to set Viktor Gyokeres away or a succession of passes to get them into their opponent’s penalty area.
Where are Play-off winners Luton Town? Way down in the bottom left quadrant. We will see later that they are a bit unique!
Reading, Rotherham United, Birmingham City and Huddersfield Town fills the bottom-4 spots for Total Attacks, all teams in the bottom-third of the Championship table.
But we had more of the ball:
I’m still surprised how fans use possession stats (and in their own) to claim an unjust result. Possession can be important, but its not the be-all and end-all. During the recent under-20 Euros we started to see possession split three ways, with the introduction of “no control”, so you might see:
England 38% | no control 26% | Italy 36%
That gives a better indication of the game, perhaps?
By comparing Passes per sequence / possession versus Direct Speed (how quickly the ball is moved forward) we maybe start to get a feel for Luton Town and Coventry City and why they figure in the sections above and high in the league table. They play fast! No surprise to see the opposite with Swansea and Burnley. Maybe a surprise is Bristol City in the bottom left quadrant. In 2021–22 the triumvirate of Weimann, Semenyo and Martin led to many goals on the break or Weimann breaking past the other two forwards. But Nigel Pearson is evolving the team into a more possession-based team and it takes time.
On the right hand bar charts we firstly see high possession (grey) correlate closely with teams making lots of passing sequences of 10+ passes. Birmingham City, Rotherham United and Blackpool the least patient / prepared to build long possession phases of play, plus the exception that proves the rule — Luton Town.
What about when you don’t have the ball:
To quote my local British Basketball League coach, Bristol Flyers’ Andreas Kapoulas — “defence fuels offence”. I’m sure he’s not the only coach to have said that, but it resonates for this next section.
Today’s modern game of football hears the terms PPDA*, high-press, gegen-press, mid-block, low-block, but what does the data show us? Easier to go straight to the diagram below.
PPDA is Possessions Allowed per Defensive Action — pretty much how much do you allow your opponent to play (in their defensive third). Devised by Colin Trainor — go google him!
Straightaway we see Luton Town with considerably more “high regains” than anyone else. They are incessant at putting teams under pressure in their own defensive third, look to exploit their opponents in the area of the pitch of least danger to themselves. Burnley again score well in forcing turnovers quickly, but this is the first time we’ve mentioned Stoke City. When you’ve got Jacob Brown in your forward line no opposition defender gets a rest. Brown has form for heavy-pressing from his time under Valerian Ismael at Barnsley. Ismael has just taken over at Watford, will we see the Barnsley style of 2020–21 again?
Wigan Athletic and Reading, both relegated, find themselves at the bottom of the pressing table. Swansea City, the darlings (no pun Harry) of passing football don’t make many high regains, but then again, as per sections above they have the ball a lot, lessening opportunity for themselves!
In the grey box we can see who the division’s best “punishers” are, i.e. those who win the ball high, and then score. It’s Burnley (again) and Sheffield United, the two teams to gain automatic promotion with 14 apiece. Luton Town for all their high regains only scored 5. Blackburn Rovers just 1.
Goals win matches, defences win Championships:
My final section of data, what type of goals are conceded, the reverse of my opening section.
Standard bearers Burnley, along with Luton Town, Sheffield United top the charts (bar chart) followed by Coventry City and Millwall. The three relegated sides — Wigan Athletic, Reading and Blackpool are kept off of the bottom by QPR a team in freefall towards relegation bar a couple of results at the death, one of which was against Burnley. I did start off this article saying this league is unpredictable!
But we see Swansea City as an outlier, 59 goals conceded, of which 19 were set-pieces. It’s ok having 63% possession to achieve 65 goals (53 / 12), but the balance needs adjusting if you concede 59 (40 / 19) from only 37% opposition possession. Something for new boss Michael Duff to work out. I’m sure opposition managers were happy to absorb Swans pretty passages of play to catch them on the break, even if they ended up with just a set-piece!
QPR’s 21 set-piece goals conceded, the worst, must’ve been a concern for all three managers over the course of the season.
What about Coventry City? Just 5 set-piece goals conceded (to go with just 7 set-piece goals scored), shows how the dominance of keeper Wilson and defender McFadzean and his marshalling of his five loanees did in their own box.
Conclusions:
The league table doesn’t lie. It certainly doesn’t if you’re good / the best at pretty much everything like Burnley. Nor does it lie if you’re pretty good at most things like Sheffield United. But it also tells us that if you excel in a couple of areas like Luton Town (pressing, high regains) and couple it with a distinct style and personnel or Coventry City with their solid defence and Gyokeres on the break, you can go the distance, at least to Wembley.
On the flipside, the teams that struggled / got relegated, struggled because they failed to do very well in any particular area. the data and league table says they deserved it.
To conclude — The data doesn’t lie, but you do have to look at it across several lenses including playing style.
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