A Victory Map for Gary Johnson Supporters
Each 1 convert 1.8
Many Governor Johnson supporters have seen a map where a win in New Mexico keeps Clinton and Trump from winning an Electoral College majority. As someone who wants a Gary Johnson |Bill Weld administration, that map sets a terrible tone since it may lead Johnson voters outside of New Mexico to think their vote doesn’t matter.
Johnson Victory — What Does it Take?
What do you think it would it take for a Johnson victory? Obviously, some people who currently lean towards Clinton or Trump would need to vote for Gary Johnson. Would each Johnson supporter on average have to convert 2, 3, or 4 people? My first guess was 3 people, what’s yours?
I based my analysis on the following:
* Washington Post poll of 74,000 voters conducted in August with state-by-state results.
* Analysis of polls from Real Clear Politics that show Johnson and Stein are drawing 38% from Clinton, 32% from Trump, and 30% from Other. The ratio of Clinton to Trump is 54% — 46%.
* The Quinnipiac poll of Sep 14 reveals historical voter dissatisfaction with both major party candidates. Among Clinton voters, 54% say they mainly are voting against Trump. Among Trump voters, 66% say they mainly are voting against Clinton. These voters can be swayed to a different candidate.
