It’s the Turnout, Stupid.

In the wake of the election, Democrats are wondering what the way forward to victory is. Without getting into platform issues, here’s a quick reminder that the Democrats have a solution looking them right in the face and it’s been there the entire time. The solution is voter turnout.

In 42 states in this past election, the eligible voters who did not vote outnumbered the supporters of the winning candidate for POTUS (source). Put another way: if “Did Not Vote” was a candidate, they would have won FORTY-TWO states! Aside from the embarrassment that we should feel from that level of disengagement, it shows the Democrats exactly where the winning strategy is in the short-term and long-term: voter turnout.

Case in point: Republicans got more eligible voters to support them in Minnesota (33.3%) than in Michigan (30.7%), Ohio (32.5%), Pennsylvania (30.5%), or even Florida (31.6%). However, Democrats won Minnesota thanks to massive turnout. As a state, Minnesota had the best voter turnout in the entire country (74.1%). Coincidentally, Rep. Keith Ellison (D-Minn.) is running for DNC Chair with a plan to take this kind of voter mobilization nationwide.

The “swing voter” is a unicorn who the Democrats have chased to their own detriment. The disillusioned/apathetic voter should be the target. All the votes that Democrats need are sitting on the sidelines. We need to organize and build a party that engages these people. Even a small fraction of them showing up at the polls would be a tectonic shift in electoral math, even for Congress.

How many non-voters do we need to turnout? Not many at all. If just 1 out of every 30 had voted for Hillary, it would completely flip the Electoral College results to Hillary winning by 75 delegates. Think of how many people you know who probably did not vote. Could you get 1 in 30 to maybe show up next time? That gets us a win. Can we do even better? If we can get 1 in 10 to show up, we’re talking landslides of historic proportions.

Below is a chart of the 2016 POTUS election results based on eligible voters. I hope you look at it and, like me, see a sea of victories waiting for us. Now let’s start working.