Why Trump Will Remain President for at least 4 Years.
It has been 3 weeks since President Trump was sworn in. I’ve since had hundreds of political discussions and I consistently hear people think President Trump won’t last 4 weeks, let alone 4 years. I’ve heard this countlessly as I’ve advocated for the fact that the #resistance needs to think strategically, moderate tactics, and plan for a 4-yr long political war.
Let me break down why President Trump is likely to remain President for 4 years.
Yes, it only takes a simple majority in the House to impeach him, 218 votes. Current party line splits are 239(R) — 193(D) meaning that the Democrats would need 25 more votes to impeach President Trump.
Okay, that’s not too hard, there have to be some sensible Republican Congressmen that would vote against their party and their party’s president.
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But for argument sake, let’s say you find 25 R’s to make the vote in the next 2 years (pre-midterms).
CONGRATULATIONS, you’ve served President Trump with articles of impeachment! No more President Trump!!!!! ….
But wait … “wasn’t Bill Clinton impeached” I hear you say? “Andrew Johnson too!” I hear the buff’s respond. Yes, they were. And they remained President even AFTER being impeached.
“HOLD UP!” I hear you saying. “What. The. F#$@!” “How can that be?” To the crowd of people who forgot 9th-grade civics (especially those who didn’t realize that VP Pence got the tie-breaking vote in the U.S. Senate) there is a 2nd step to remove an impeached President from office. The Senate gets to vote on it.
Yep, The same Senate that tireless phone calls against Secretary Betsy DeVos could only flip 2 Republicans to vote against their party line. That same Senate gets to vote on removing President Trump from office.
“Okay, so flipping 3 Senators can’t be that hard, right?. We already got to 2, maybe we can get 1 of the remaining 4 GOP women to join their sisters?”
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but it isn’t a vote of a simple majority. No no no no no no. Article 1 Section 3 of the Constitution states about impeachment that:
“no person shall be convicted without the concurrence of two-thirds of the members present.”
Yep. two-thirds. 67 votes. SIXTY-SEVEN! Remember how much effort went into flipping just ONE more Senator to block Betsy DeVos? Now imagine flipping 17 MORE. That’s a total of 19 Republican Senators you are trying to get to defect from the leader of their party.
“Okay but what about the Mid-terms? Surely after 2-years of President Trump we could organize against him and win those votes in the Senate. Right!?”
Let’s look at the 2018 map for a moment. Every 2 years 1/3 of the Senate is up for re-election. In 2018 that means 34 seats are up for re-election. 34 chances at grabbing those 19 votes. However, currently, 23 of them are held by Democrats, 9 by Republicans and 2 Independents (who vote with and we can count as Dems).
Those 9 GOP seats are in the following states: Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Wyoming, Nebraska, Texas, Alabama, Tennessee. There is almost no way that Dems win state-wide in even 3 of those states.
But for argument’s sake let’s assume a MIRACLE happens and Democrats defy the odds to not only win all 9 but also hold onto their 25 seats (11 of which are vulnerable btw).
Then, 2 years from now, the Senate party lines would be 57(D) - 43(R). You would still need to flip 10 GOP Senators to vote against President Trump in order for him to be removed from office.
Yes, there is a possibility that President Trump screws up SO badly and commits a clear illegal crime so heinous that he is able to impeached despite these odds. But let’s face reality and be honest with each other. President Trump is going to be here for 4 years. Breathe. That is the reality of our situation.
We can and should continue to resist President Trump’s executive overreach through motivated, dedicated, and consistent action. But we should not delude ourselves into thinking that he will only last a few weeks as I heard at a rally in NYC last week. We should not believe in a false hope that he will be gone in 1 yr. We should not pray at night for *shudder* President Pence to become a reality later this year.
We need to prepare for a 4 year insurgency. A resistance that will test our endurance, commitment, and tactics. We need to start training how to last, how to survive, how to support and care for each other, and how to not seem like we are crying wolf with every outrage. If we are going to thrive, then we need to approach this new reality with our eyes wide open.
I do not know what the next 4 years will bring. Lord knows the last few weeks have been plenty already. But I do know that we need to educate ourselves on the new reality we face and be prepared for the long drawn out campaign.
We need to show up and fight at town hall meetings like Rep. Jason Chaffetz faced this week. We need to support the ACLU and other organizations fighting against judicial overreach. We need to find allies wherever they might be. But most importantly, we need to remember, that this is a marathon and not a sprint.