Using Publicly Available Information (PAI) and Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) to Monitor Geopolitical Events

By: David Cook

On June 21, 2025, the United States executed a significant airstrike targeting three Iranian nuclear facilities in Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, deploying over 24 Tomahawk cruise missiles and seven B-2 bombers carrying 14 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs). This operation marked the first combat use of the MOP and the second-longest B-2 mission in U.S. Air Force history.

The strike was a result of Iran’s failure to give up their nuclear ambitions. On June 23rd, Iran launched ballistic missiles at Al-Udeid, Qatar, the biggest US military base in the Middle East. Shortly after, President Trump has announced a “Complete and Total CEASEFIRE” where Israel and Iran have agreed to peace. For 12 days, the world watched exchanges of words and ballistic missiles, waiting for any semblance of peace or total victory. Uncertainty gripped the private sector — grasping for an answer to the question: “what will happen next?”

The Risk to Industry

Geopolitical risk ranked as the number one risk (19% of respondents) to enterprises in WTW’s survey released in May of this year. A Forbes’ survey returned 11% of respondents choosing geopolitics as the biggest risk while World Economic Forum respondents put “State-based armed conflict” and “Geoeconomic confrontation” at the number one spot (23%) and number 3 (8%) biggest risks of 2025, respectively. These reports were all published before President Trump proclaimed the most recent conflict — the 12 Day War.

The Strait of Hormuz, which separates the UAE and Iran, averages 20 million barrels of oil per day passing through the narrow waterway. The same maritime passage that Iran was posturing to blockade just a day ago. On the other side of the Arabian Peninsula, approximately 30% of global container traffic sails through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to total more than $1 trillion in goods annually. The Houthis, a Zaydi Shia group in Yemen who are supported by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps with weapons and training, have proven to interrupt global trade by launching dozens of attacks on commercial vessels, sinking a British vessel carrying fertilizer and killing three people on board a Barbados-flagged ship in March. The rebel group apparently expanded their original policy on attacks when it was stated they would target “any Israeli vessel” with attempted strikes on American military ships from 2023 to early 2025 costing the US Navy $1.5 billion in expended munitions. For commercial ships and tankers, the price of insurance increased 10-fold while rates of containers spiked to $4,700 from less than $1,000 in 2024.

These conflicts — which will surely continue — create disruption in global trade and create logistical challenges for commercial and military entities. To mitigate these threats, leverage publicly available information (PAI) and open-source intelligence (OSINT) to stay informed and ultimately, compliant.

Key Risks for Commercial Entities

1. Economic Sanctions Compliance Risks

Iran’s response was to fire ballistic missiles at Al Udeid Airbase in Qatar. It is yet to be seen whether Iran will give up their nuclear ambition completely or the United States and its allies will trigger further sanctions or consequences. Non-compliance with sanctions could result in fines, reputational damage, or loss of market access.

• Questions to Explore: What steps can a company take to ensure compliance with rapidly changing sanctions regimes? How can publicly available information help identify sanctioned entities or restricted activities in Iran or its proxy networks?
• Mitigation Strategies Using OSINT:
• Monitor Sanctions Lists: Regularly check updates from the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), EU sanctions list, and UN Security Council resolutions. Websites like treasury.gov and sanctionssearch.ofac.treas.gov provide real-time data on sanctioned individuals, entities, and vessels.
• Track News and Government Statements: Set keyword searches, hashtags, and news feeds in ShadowDragon’s Horizon Monitor to monitor announcements about new developments, press releases, or designations related to Iran. For example, Iran’s threats to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) could trigger additional negative actions.
• Analyze Proxy Networks: Iran uses proxies like Hezbollah, the Houthis and front companies to evade sanctions. Company and domain lookups using ShadowDragon’s SocialNet can map corporate networks and identify hidden connections to sanctioned entities. Due diligence on key individuals is vital to understanding and uncovering hidden linkages between people and entities.
• Social Media Monitoring: Platforms like X can provide early warnings of sanctions-related developments. Search for posts from credible sources (e.g., @USTreasury, @StateDept) or use hashtags like #IranSanctions or #Missile to track discussions.

Most Used Hashtags During The 12 Day War:

Data collected from X (formerly Twitter)

2. Logistics and Supply Chain Risks

Iran’s planned closure of the Strait of Hormuz or their attacks on regional infrastructure would have disrupted oil shipments and trade routes, further increased costs and delaying goods. Commercial entities reliant on Middle Eastern supply chains still face significant risks.

• Mitigation Strategies Using OSINT:
• Track Maritime Activity: Use AIS (Automatic Identification System) data from platforms like MarineTraffic.com or VesselFinder.com to monitor vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz. Anomalies, such as ships rerouting or delays, could signal disruptions.
• Geopolitical Risk Analysis: Reports from think tanks like Chatham House or the Foundation for Defense of Democracies offer insights into Iran’s likely actions. For example, Iran still has the ability to escalate covertly through proxies.
• Crowdsourced Intelligence: Monitor X for posts about regional incidents, such as missile strikes or port closures, using search terms like “Strait of Hormuz” or “Iran shipping.” Cross-reference with verified sources like navy.mil to ensure accuracy.

3. Reputational and Operational Risks

Doing business with Iran or its proxies, even inadvertently, could harm a company’s reputation or expose it to legal scrutiny. Additionally, cyberattacks or terrorism linked to Iran’s asymmetric responses could disrupt operations.

• Questions to Explore: How can a company protect its reputation while operating in a volatile region? What OSINT tools could help detect cyber threats or terrorist risks linked to Iranian proxies?
• Mitigation Strategies Using OSINT:
• Enhanced Due Diligence: Use OSINT platforms like ShadowDragon’s Horizon Identity to screen partners, suppliers, and customers against more than 550 publicly available sources and more than 1,500 endpoints. This helps avoid dealings with entities tied to Iran’s IRGC or proxies.
• Cyber Threat Intelligence: Monitor dark web forums with DarkBlue Intelligence Suite for signs of Iranian-linked cyberattacks. Iran may still use cyber warfare as retaliation and the dark web is medium to monitor for online chatter or indicators.
• Stakeholder Communication: Track public sentiment on X or Telegram chats to gauge perceptions of companies operating in the Middle East. Negative sentiment could signal reputational risks.

Recommendations for Using Publicly Available Information (PAI) and OSINT

To effectively mitigate these risks, commercial entities should adopt a structured approach to leveraging OSINT and publicly available information. Here’s a step-by-step framework, with questions to guide your thinking:

1. Establish a Monitoring System:

• Sources: Set up Monitors in ShadowDragon’s Monitor to go along with the topic you want to monitor. Set relevant hashtags, keywords, or usernames and a time increment you want to receive the information.

1. Conduct Real-Time Risk Assessments:

• Tools: Use OSINT platforms and databases like OpenSanctions, United Nations Security Council list of sanctioned individuals and entities, or MarineTraffic to analyze sanctions exposure and supply chain risks. Cross-reference with government databases (e.g., OFAC sanctions search).

1. Integrate OSINT into Compliance Programs:

• Process: Incorporate sanctions screening into onboarding and transaction monitoring using tools like World-Check or Dow Jones Risk & Compliance. Train staff on OSINT techniques to identify red flags.

1. Develop Contingency Plans:

• Scenarios: Prepare for scenarios like the closure of the Strait of Hormuz or cyberattacks. Use OSINT to identify alternative shipping routes or cybersecurity measures.

1. Engage with Experts:

• Resources: Consult think tank reports, hire OSINT analysts or integrate OSINT capabilities into a Security Operations Center (SOC) to provide tailored risk assessments, and explore ShadowDragon’s OSINT training blog for best practices

Risk Categories and OSINT Mitigation Strategies

Risk: Sanctions Compliance — New sanctions on Iran or proxies could penalize non-compliant businesses.

Mitigation: Use Horizon Monitor to get alerts from OFAC/EU/UN lists on social media, network analysis, track news and X posts.

Risk: Logistics Disruptions — Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz or attacks could disrupt shipping and raise costs.

Mitigation: Track AIS data on MarineTraffic, monitor oil prices, use think tank reports for risk analysis.

Risk: Reputational Risks — Association with Iran or proxies could harm brand image.

Mitigation: Screen partners with Horizon Identity, monitor social media for public sentiment, conduct adverse media checks.

Risk: Cyber and Terrorism Threats — Iranian cyberattacks or proxy attacks could disrupt operations.

Mitigation: Utilize ShadowDragon’s Horizon with third-party integrations Proofpoint, Shodan, and VirusTotal for cyber threat intelligence insights in real-time. Horizon’s integration with CACI’s DarkBlue Intelligence Suite monitors for compromised credentials or personal and sensitive information in the dark web.

Conclusion

By leveraging publicly available information and OSINT, commercial entities can proactively mitigate risks related to economic sanctions compliance and logistics disruptions stemming from Iran’s potential responses to the U.S. strikes. A structured approach — monitoring reliable sources, conducting real-time assessments, and integrating OSINT into compliance and contingency planning — will enhance resilience and who knows, it may save lives in today’s increasingly dangerous world.

Geopolitical Events are not just background noise — they represent real, immediate risks to your operations. From supply chains to partnerships, your company’s reputation, personnel, and assets are on the line. ShadowDragon arms you with an end-to-end OSINT solution to identify and mitigate these threats fast.

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