Will Brexit trigger Scotland’s independence? Not so fast.
The outcome of June’s dramatic vote in the United Kingdom on the country’s withdrawal from the European Union (EU) had immediate consequences: the markets stirred, the British pound plummeted, and David Cameron resigned as prime minister. Many analysts are bracing for more tumultuous news ahead: a second referendum on Scottish independence.
The UK is a union state with a complex constitutional system containing four different nations that diverged on their views on what has become known as “Brexit.” England is the largest entity, where 53.4% of the voters — many driven by fears about immigration — voted in favor of Brexit. Wales also voted in favor, but Northern Ireland and Scotland voted clearly to remain in the EU with 55.8% and 62%, respectively, voting against Brexit.
This divergence in the Brexit vote outcome is particularly important in Scotland given that it held a referendum on Scottish independence in September 2014, with 55% of Scots voting to stay in the UK. One of the determinant arguments put forward by Cameron and others opposing Scottish independence was that voting to leave the UK would mean that Scotland would be stripped of its EU membership. Following the Brexit referendum, it seems that Scotland is on its way out of the EU anyway.
Brexit has deepened the already ongoing constitutional crisis in the UK. As the Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon put it, the possibility of Scotland being taken out of the EU by the rest of the UK would be “democratically unacceptable.” In fact, a poll by The Sunday Post suggested that independence support following Brexit was as high as 59%. Scots may now be more open to independence and taking their chances on re-applying for EU membership as an independent state.
Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party, which has long advocated Scotland’s independence, was returned to office with a clear majority in the Scottish regional elections in May. During the campaign, the party promised that it would not push for a second independence referendum unless there was “a significant and material change in circumstances.” Arguably, Brexit represents a blatant change in circumstances and thus another referendum on Scotland’s independence is, according to Sturgeon, on the table.
Sturgeon is one of the UK’s most astute politicians and chose her words with caution for good reasons: Scotland’s independence still faces key challenges. First, the Scottish nationalist government doesn’t want to call a second referendum and risk losing it (again). It remains to be seen where public support for independence stands. Scottish nationalists want to be completely sure that they will succeed, and Sturgeon made it clear that a vote will only be called if there is a consistent and demonstrable support for Scotland’s independence.
Second, even if Scotland and the rest of the UK are going to leave the EU, it is unclear what exactly a UK outside the EU will look like. To begin with, the standard-bearer of the Leave campaign, former United Kingdom Independence Party leader Nigel Farage, declared victory and left the public scene without outlining what kind of a relationship the UK should maintain with the EU. It will be up to the government of new British Prime Minister Theresa May — a “Remain” supporter, albeit a quiet one — to negotiate the withdrawal process from the EU. This process could take years.
From Scotland’s perspective, it is risky to rush for a vote on independence before knowing exactly what Brexit will mean. For example, if the UK negotiates keeping access to the EU single market and freedom of movement for UK citizens, this might be an attractive enough deal to swing Scottish voters to reject independence. The July 15 meeting between May and Sturgeon underlined the importance of this scenario, with May opting to wait on beginning withdrawal negotiations with the EU until a more united UK-wide approach is reached.
Finally, the prospect of Scotland’s independence and the country keeping its membership in the EU also presents complications both at the UK and European levels. If an independent Scotland were to stay in the EU, the border between Scotland and England would be a “hard border,” with border posts. Especially given the strong economic ties between Scotland and the rest of the UK, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding the economic consequences of such a change. From the perspective of other EU states, an independent Scotland would probably need to leave the EU anyway and re-apply for membership as an independent state. This is in part because some states such as Spain, which is facing a secessionist challenge from Catalonia, do not want Scotland to set a precedent. As Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy bluntly put it, “if the UK leaves, Scotland leaves too.”
Many Scots want Scotland to remain part of both the UK and the EU, but it seems that keeping membership in both unions will be incompatible. At this point, it is not clear whether Scotland will choose independence, and consequently EU membership, over remaining part the UK. More clarity on what Brexit will actually mean is needed for Scots to make an informed decision about whether to push for Scottish independence this time.
