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Why Are We Ignoring Farr’s Law of Epidemics? Coronavirus Should be Gone by This Summer

Fewer than 200 new cases are reported daily in China, down from a peak of 4,000 in early February

David Paul Kirkpatrick
Mar 10 · 2 min read

Worldwide, there have been about 3,400 coronavirus deaths, out of about 100,000 identified cases.

Flu, by comparison, generally contributes to 646,000 deaths annually.

China, of course, is the origin of the virus and still accounts for over 80 percent of cases and deaths.

But its cases peaked and began ­declining more than a month ago, according to data presented by the Canadian epidemiologist who spearheaded the World Health Organization’s coronavirus mission to China.

Fewer than 200 new cases are now reported daily, down from a peak of 4,000 in February.

Subsequent countries will follow this same pattern, in what’s called Farr’s Law of Epidemics.

First formulated in 1840 and ignored in ­every epidemic hysteria since, including the hysterics involving SARS and Ebola, Farr’s has been proven to be a trustworthy map in tracking new “epidemics”.

Farr’s Law of Epidemics states that epidemics tend to rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern or bell-shaped curve. The flu season operates under the same curve. It rises is fall and descends in spring. That also has something to do with the weather.

More Good News

This month, the Northern Hemisphere, which includes the countries with the most cases, starts heating up.

Almost all respiratory viruses hate warm and moist weather.

That’s why flu dies out in America every year by May at the latest and probably why Latin America has reported only 25 coronavirus cases. The Philippines where it’s hot and humid has no confirmed cases of coronavirus.

Traveling the World

I just left a cruise ship 7,000 people last week with whom I traveled on Royal Caribbean’s Independence of the Seas. I am fine and so are all those with whom I traveled. Using an abundance of caution, I am soon headed to Stockholm, London, and Edinburgh.

NOTE: I am rushing on other deadlines but will include bibliography etc. and more information on this later today. I wanted to get this material posted soonest.

David Paul Kirkpatrick

Written by

Co-founder of MIT Center for Future Storytelling, President of Paramount Pictures, Production Chief of Walt Disney Studios, optimist, author and teacher.

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