The Milankovitch cycle does evidence a wobble. The cycle occurs over 413,000 years. That has virtually no bearing on current temperature growth. (1-A)S/R²= σT⁴ is the equation to determine the known Earth temperature without the greenhouse gas effect (A is albedo, σ is the Stephan-Boltzmann constant). Without greenhouse gases the Earth’s temperature would be about -21°C or -6°F. What this means is that the temperature of the earth without greenhouse gases would place our planet just outside the Sun’s habitable zone. The opportunity for life’s existence would have been extremely unlikely without greenhouse gases. You have to start with this knowledge and skilled professional instruction is necessary. It’s unlikely you’ll have any skills to understand climate change without knowing this basic equation. Most people need essential physical science training. I’ll include you here, Jim.

The Earth’s temperature is 16°C or 61°F. That is a 66°F difference caused by about .27% to .33% of the Earth’s Atmosphere. If you don’t think a greenhouse gas increase of .01% has little impact, think again.

First, Greenhouse gases are essential for life on Earth. However, too much of a good thing can easily make such gases hazardous. The Earth has two major greenhouse gases along with a series of a few more minor greenhouse gases. One of those minor greenhouse gases, though minor in atmospheric percentage, had been eradicating the ozone layer rapidly, particularly near Antarctica. This is CFC-12. A worldwide ban of this gas eliminated it’s commercial usage and stop the degradation of the ozone layer.

Methane has some significance but, due to the high percentage of two major greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, I’ll concentrate on the major two gases-water vapor and carbon dioxide -and their interrelationship in our atmosphere. The only cause for water vapor to rise is increased temperature. If the greenhouse gases are not in equilibrium and CO2 grows in atmospheric amount then H2O rises.

I will add one note. Greenhouse gases form a dense gas layer around a planet. Though the sun’s radiance will partially filter through this layer (except for albedo deflection), it bounces off that layer back and forth while slowly precipitate out and beyond the Earth’s atmosphere. This process plays out in a continuous fashion. As the greenhouse gases rise, this bouncing increases with less and less escaping out of the atmosphere.

Carbon Dioxide is on the lithosphere and hydrosphere too but it is within the lithosphere. Petroleum deposits in various forms are extracted. Once it burns, it is released back into the atmosphere. Once the knowledge of how this works is understood, then logic takes over. Add CO2 to the atmosphere, water vapor grows too. Temperatures rise and, importantly, greater amounts of precipitation will happen in various (and sometimes catastrophic) forms. This is a repetitive process. The good news is that, at most, CO2 lives in the atmosphere no more than 90 years. The bad news is that as dependence remains an issue and the population grows, CO2 composition will grow more, encourage higher H2O content and increase the climate change impact.

This is what you need to understand, Jim.