Can a Third Party Candidate Get 5% of the Popular Vote in 2020?
The answer is.. maybe. But it’s going to be really tough. These strategies could make it a bit easier.
Being a political junkie is depressing. Unlike the casual watchers who don’t even pay attention to politics until the general election and then many of them get disappointed at who their choices are, we watch and rave over lesser known candidates with better, stronger policies in the primaries and amongst third-party candidates. Then we watch in depression as those candidates fail to get enough votes to win a major party nomination or election.
I’m sure this is how many people my age felt following the Democratic party, especially if their first choice candidate was Bernie Sanders, Andrew Yang, Tulsi Gabbard, or Beto O’Rourke. We pine and hope over them to eventually come to their senses and make a third party run for about a day or two, a week tops, but eventually they give in and support their party’s nominee, ending all hopes for a chance at an alternative choice for the country. Some cave and vote for the lesser of two evils. Some decide to vote for a write-in candidate instead. But no matter who wins, we continue the “what if” question of how much better life would be if candidate X won the election.
A big reason many feel that politics gets this depressing is over the lack of choice. Since right before the Civil War, only two parties have had any real hope of winning the presidency: The Democrat Party and the Republican Party and only Teddy Roosevelt’s Progressive Party silver-medal finish came anywhere close to winning in 1912 by picking up only 88 electoral votes out of a possible 531. To get that 3rd (or more) choice, however, U.S. election policy requires that a third party candidate pick up 5% of the vote in order to be considered a major party and receive federal funding, putting them at least in the same tier as the big two.
On one hand, with enthusiasm for the major candidates at an all-time low, you would think this should be a piece of cake for a third party candidate, but considering a third party candidate needs 15% of the popular vote to make the general election debates, the constant shaming/cancelling of people by the loudest voices who won’t vote for their candidate and the media giving third party nominees nearly zero media coverage, this is a near herculean task that well known nominees like Ralph Nader, Ron Paul, and Gary Johnson failed to accomplish.
While it is very difficult, it is not impossible. I have gotten questions on my Twitter account asking me if I feel like a third party candidate has a chance of winning the presidency or getting 5% of the popular vote. The answer? To the first question, no. It’s not possible. There is no way a third party candidate will ever pick up 270 electoral votes and become President. To the second question, I say, no but.. it’s not impossible. As I said, it will take a huge effort but it is possible. 2020 could see a third party candidate make an uprising using these five strategies.
Strategy #1: Focus on “Safe” States
The U.S. general election follows a very interesting process where a president is decided by who gets more electoral votes, not necessarily who gets more popular votes. If you lose a state by just 1 vote, you lose the entire state. Losing by 1 vote is the same as losing by 2 million. The public has sort of smartened up to this, which is why many in swing states will hold their noses and vote for a major candidate simply because they hate the other major candidate.
On the other side, the Republican living in California, or the Democrat living in Alabama may as well not vote, since their party’s candidate will wind up with less than 40% of the vote anyway, so why even bother? These states many political pundits call the “safe” states. Picking up a decent chunk of votes from these states would probably not change the outcome of the election too much, but it could mean the difference between 5% or not to your Libertarian or Green Party candidate. Thankfully, two states in particular are considered quite safe that are full of people: California and New York.
With about 130 million people looking to vote in this general election, the third party candidate will need at least 6.5 million of those votes to become a major party. California will have around 13.5 million voters. New York will have around 7 million. Just picking up 10% of votes in both states gets them a third of the way there. How will they get to that 10% however? More on that later.
Strategy #2: Know EVERYTHING about being President.
The elephant in the room: Gary Johnson could’ve got 5% of the popular vote in 2016. He might have even been able to get 15%. He might not have won the Presidency, but a Gary Johnson who remembered what Aleppo was and didn’t speak to reporters like he was a frat boy making fun of the election process sticking his tongue out while talking would have picked up enough of the vote that he not only could’ve given the Libertarian Party the metrics they needed but even give them New Mexico.
Gary Johnson’s “What’s Aleppo?” response proved that he was not ready to take the highest office in the land and his knowledge of foreign policy and foreign relations was VERY weak. Yes, we’re in a very domestic policy heavy time, but foreign policy matters enough that at least a rudimentary knowledge of the world around us outside of Israel-Palestine relations will do wonders for a third party’s chances.
Strategy #3: Push hard on Biden’s and Trump’s scandals
Joe Biden has recently been accused by several women of sexual assault. Before that there was Hunter Biden. Combine that with a candidate that very few are enthusiastic about and it makes for a very vulnerable nominee that might only be topped in vulnerability by the sitting incumbent Donald Trump, who is full of scandals himself. Their transgressions have been covered in detail depending on what side’s media you listen to, but when you’re a third party candidate, the focus should be placed on pushing hard on both of them.
The word of the cycle seems to be “sexual assault”. Donald Trump and Joe Biden have both been at least accused of such by multiple women in the past and it will be up to a third party candidate to stand out by stating their clean record in this matter. This goes the same over financial scandals and cases of fraud to a lesser extent, but sexual assault makes better headlines.
Strategy #4: Focus on the Youth Vote
If you’re trying to win the Presidency, placing your focus on just the youth vote has been a consistent losing strategy because the youth demographic consistently show up the least (~40% in 2016 compared to a ~56% national average). However, as a third party candidate, in this cycle with a disgruntled youth vote, they provide a great opportunity to pick up much needed votes to make the threshold as a major party.
In a recent Economist/YouGov poll (4/19–21), 20% of the 18–29 age group would not be voting for either major democratic nominee Joe Biden or Donald Trump. This is compared to 13% aged 30–44 , 7% aged 45–64 and only 4% aged 65+.
It is not an outlier either. A Pew Research poll in the same week showed that 16% of voters aged 18–29 was not planning or undecided on voting for Biden or Trump compared to 11% of voters aged 30–49, 6% aged 50–64 and 3% aged 65+. These polls have consistently shown that the younger generation is fed up with the two-party system and are begging for an alternative. This generation is also very internet savvy. The right third party candidate could tap into these normally disinterested voters and pick up the popular vote they need from them. Just grabbing half of the vote and picking up new first time voters could be enough to get them over the edge.
Strategy #5: Name Recognition
The third party candidate has to have a strong name recognition, but I don’t consider this super-high priority compared to the first four for two reasons. One, any candidate can make a splash in an election where both major candidates are not seen as having strong, enthusiastic bases. Gary Johnson wasn’t exactly a household name in 2016 when he ran as the Libertarian Party nominee, but a huge distrust of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton made Johnson a choice many were willing to take a chance on until the Aleppo question. Two, larger names have ran before like Pat Buchanan (Reform Party, 2000) and Ralph Nader (Green Party, 2000), and they failed to make the 5% barrier collecting 0.43% and 2.74% of the vote respectively. However, it can’t be denied that name recognition would get a candidate over well and if a third party is focusing on getting federal funding, they might have to take a page from the DNC book and nominate their best known candidate.
So again, what are the chances of a third party like the Libertarian or Green Party becoming a major party? Not good at all. However, it’s not impossible. With specific strategized planning and understanding of election psychology it’s not probable, but it’s possible.
