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Usually, the it-ain’t-so-bad crowd will use 1998 as their starting year. That’s because it is a statistical anomaly and those are always handy if you are trying to obfuscate. With this as a starting point, they are able to draw tend lines down. It doesn’t phase them that if you pick the year before or the year after, the trends are up. So, they are just cherry picking their starting point to make their point. But it is a lie.

What they are basically doing is using an abnormally high wave to prove that the tide is not coming in. If you take the peak of a high wave and average it against the water levels that come after, then the trend will be down.

As anyone can see from the temperature charts, there are some background fluctuations in the annual temperature (the waves) that are superimposed on the overall trend (the tide).

When people use an statistical anomaly as the basis of their argument, you know that they a) are stupid, or b) they think you are stupid.

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