Scotland After Brexit
The term Brexit was coined after the nation of Great Britain, in a nation wide vote, chose to leave the European Union. This was a shocking decision because many had assumed that Great Britain would vote to ‘remain’ in the EU. Despite the fact that England and Wales voted to ‘leave’, Scotland and Northern Ireland largely voted to ‘remain’. However, since the most densely populated country, England, voted for Brexit, both Scotland and Northern Ireland had their figurative hands tied. Now, Scotland and Northern Ireland are hoping for a ‘soft’ Brexit where the UK would still remain closely tied to the EU, as opposed to a ‘hard’ Brexit where the UK would sever practically all ties with the EU. Losing the Brexit vote brought up numerous issues within the country.
The most prominent issue is the possibility of Scottish independence. There have been multiple referendums in Scotland to decide whether they should separate from the UK to form its own nation, the most recent being in 2014. Expected to be a very narrow vote, Scotland voted to stay part of the United Kingdom by the slim margin of 55% to 45%. Now, following the recent ‘Brexit’ vote, the potential of Scottish independence has resurfaced. There are multiple laws that are relevant in this issue. For instance, although put into effect over 300 years ago, the Treaty of Union may be altered after the 2016 Brexit vote.
This treaty is the basis of the United Kingdom being formed between the nations of England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. However, if Scotland were to become independent this treaty would have to be changed to allow for Scottish independence. Similarly, the Treaty of Lisbon will become an issue in the Scotland as, although they voted to remain part of the EU, the entirety of the UK will now have to invalidate the treaty they had signed in 2007. Although a ‘soft Brexit’ would be favourable for Scotland, in the event of a ‘hard Brexit’ it would be most beneficial to join the European Free Trade Association, or EFTA, as an independent state.
One must take a closer look at the regional breakdown of the Brexit vote, in order to fully understand the scope of how different Scotland’s decision was from the rest of the UK. First of all, the most populated country, England, voted in favour of leaving by 53.4%. Similarly, Wales voted 52.5% in favour of leaving. In the remain camp, the sparsely populated Northern Ireland voted to stay by 55.8%, and finally, Scotland voted to remain with a convincing 62%. However, despite over 1.6 million Scots voting to stay in the EU, they didn’t have the ability to overtake the approximately 15.2 million English who voted to leave.
The results of the Brexit vote were eerily similar to the recent US Presidential election in that, in both events there was a massive division between the metropolitan voters, and the rural voters. In the UK, 4 of the 5 largest cities (London, Glasgow, Liverpool and Leeds) voted to remain in the European Union, it should be noted that the other largest city that voted leave, Birmingham, was with the narrowest margins, with 50.4% voting to leave. This is similar to the US Presidential election where Hillary Clinton received votes from the more cosmopolitan states, like New York, Massachusetts and California. And, in both cases it was the less diverse and less cosmopolitan areas, England, or the American south, that had largest amount of voters that decided on the opposite of the metropolitan areas.
This is where Scotland would be frustrated as a nation, especially in the case where every single region in Scotland voted ‘stay’. However, Scotland did have the second lowest voter turnout among the four countries, at 67.2%, and the lowest was Northern Ireland, with a lowly 62.7% voter turnout. If these two countries, which both voted to remain part of the EU, had come out in greater numbers, it may have impacted the overall vote enough to sway the decision. Alas, this was not the case, and now Scotland is forced to put up with a decision that they absolutely resented.
There are countless problems that Scotland will now face after the Brexit vote. Especially in a ‘hard’ Brexit a major issue will be that they will be taken out of the European single market economy, something that is of the utmost importance to Scottish citizens. A single market economy is an agreement between numerous nations that allows for the free movement of capital, labor, and assorted goods. Scotland’s First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, went so far as to say that staying in the European single market economy is, “vital to Scotland’s future economic wellbeing”. Sturgeon went on to emphasize the impact on the average Scottish person. Stating that Brexit, and staying out of the single market economy, will cost the Scottish economy over 11 billion dollars by 2030, take away approximately 80 000 jobs, and cut the average annual income by around 2 000 dollars.
Another issue that many Scots are concerned about, because of Brexit, is the diminishment of involvement in the global community. With the loss of ties with the European Union, and ruffled relations with England and Wales, both over the Brexit vote, Scotland is now somewhat isolated. One example of this would be the world renowned Edinburgh Festival. This festival is a major cultural, arts event, not just in Scotland, but around the world. However, a perennial attendee of the event since its inception in 1947, Richard Demarco, who was also named European Citizen of the Year in 2013, fears that Brexit may cause the closure of the beloved event. Demarco states that Edinburgh, which claims to be the “world capital of culture”, can no longer use that title after the segregation that Brexit has caused Scotland. Demarco expects to see a massive decline of willing foreign performers, which may cause a declination of festival-goers, and in turn put the continuation of the festival in jeopardy. These are just two of the many issues that will cause both Scotland, and the Scottish people, in the near future.
Pertaining to Scotland’s future after Brexit, it is not so much individual laws that have been violated, but significant, international treaties that were signed by the UK, which would include Scotland. The first would be the centuries old Treaty of Union. Signed in 1707, with the purpose of having England, which already included Wales, and Scotland form one nation, the United Kingdom. In the event of a Scottish referendum voting to leave the United Kingdom, which after Brexit seems quite possible, the Treaty of Union would have to be altered, or possibly scrapped altogether, as the entire purpose of the treaty would be nullified. A new treaty, or Scottish constitution would be put into effect, to replace the now moot treaty.
Of course this is all hypothetical, it is rare to see a piece of legislation, that has been in effect for over 300 years, have to be altered to adapt to recent events. Another treaty that has been put into question after Brexit is the Treaty of Lisbon, which is what gave the UK, and therefore Scotland membership into the EU. The UK has already adhered to Article 50 of the treaty, which gives them the ability to withdraw from the EU, and may now begin the process of leaving the EU. The international community can not take action to combat this problem, as this is solely a British issue, and is up to the British government to make a decision and come up with a solution to the separation between the UK and the EU. However, this does not mean that the international community is not attentively watching to see how things unfold, especially in Scotland, after the historical Brexit vote.
In order to solve the Scottish issue of losing ties to the European Union, one must consider whether the UK will undergo a ‘hard’ or ‘soft’ Brexit. For Scotland, if there was to be a ‘soft Brexit’, there would not be too much cause for concern. They would continue to have ties with the EU, which is major priority for the Scottish people. A ‘soft’ Brexit would undoubtedly be favourable for Scotland, however if this does not occur, then they should join the EFTA as an independent country. The EFTA is similar to the EU, as it is a regional trade agreement, that is adjacent to the EU. This means that any member state of the EFTA will be immersed in the European single market economy, another priority for Scotland.
There are only four nations in the EFTA, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein, but there are definitely some benefits to joining the EFTA. If to join the EFTA as an independent country, Scotland would continue to have ties, and trading deals with mainland European nations, and, they will be able to remain in the European Economic Area, or EEA, which is of massive importance for the nation of Scotland. The EEA will only accept members of either the EU, or EFTA, and since Scotland is no longer part of the EU, the EFTA may be the perfect alternative for Scotland. Not to mention, that the EFTA offers numerous trade agreements with non-EU countries, like Canada, South Korea, and Egypt, which will also help Scotland economically. Since it was blatantly obvious that Scotland wanted to remain part of the EU, but was still forced to leave, in the event of a ‘hard’ Brexit, it would be ideal for Scotland to, independently join the EFTA.
The joining of the EFTA will cause the aforementioned problems to the Scottish economy likely to be resolved. Similarly, the reimmersion into the European single market economy will benefit Scotland’s inclusion into the international community, which help the survival of numerous cultural events, like the Edinburgh Festival. Joining the EFTA will allow for the continuation of relations with European nations, including joining the European single market economy, which was terribly important to Scotland, it provides trade agreements with over thirty nations outside Europe, and it eliminates the global remoteness that Scotland has experienced after Brexit. All in all, the European Free Trade Association seems like the perfect alternative to the uncertain future of Scotland, after the disastrous conclusion to Brexit.
Works Cited:
“Article 50.” 2008. Accessed January 22, 2017. http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-European-union-and-comments/title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.html.
BBC. “EU Referendum Results.” BBC EU Referendum (BBC News), 2017. http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results.
BBC. “BBC News Services.” BBC (BBC News), 2017. http://www.bbc.com/news/events/scotland-decides/results.
“The European Free Trade Association.” Accessed January 22, 2017. http://www.efta.int/about-efta/european-free-trade-association.
Sim, Phillip. “Is Scotland Stepping Closer to a Second Independence Referendum?” January 19, 2017. Accessed January 22, 2017. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-38663834.
Ferguson, Brian. “Brexit Is Biggest Threat Ever to Edinburgh Festival, Says Ricky Demarco.” August 6, 2016. Accessed January 22, 2017. http://www.scotsman.com/news/brexit-is-biggest-threat-ever-to-edinburgh-festival-says-ricky-demarco-1-4196197.
Cameron, Lucinda. “Losing Single Market Could Devastate Scotland’s Prosperity, Nicola Sturgeon Warns.” The Independent — UK Politics (Independent), December 20, 2016. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-single-market-scotland-potentially-devastating-nicola-sturgeon-a7485621.html.
