Week 1 — Three Things
If you’re an American, try to explain to your European football fans how or why coaches and ownership of certain American teams and sports, when their seasons have reached a point where they don’t have a realistic opportunity to win anything material, they play to lose. They ‘bring in the youth’, certain players are all of the sudden ‘injured’, and some of the most competitive humans on the planet are all the sudden playing like it’s a Sunday pub league. There are even lawsuits. It’s pathetic. No one wins. Its bad product. I guarantee your European friends think its a terrible idea, and that their system is better. And I agree.
So why do titans of industry and sport throw seasons? Because it’s in their best financial interest, that’s why. In the top American team sports, to incent competition and create parity in our leagues, we give our worst teams the next year’s top draft picks. On the surface this feels plausible. Don’t let the strong get stronger by leaving it to chance or lottery, with the potential of the best teams also getting the next year’s best draft picks.
There is another added dimension that plays a role. We play 162 games in a baseball season. 82 in both hoops and hockey. And now 17 in football. All these games fill loads of seats and put tons of games for us to watch and play fantasy sports around. But when it comes down it, while the regular season determines playoff seeds, it does little else to promote competition. Imagine a league where every game matters. Game 1 isn’t just a tune-up to glide into the season. With Liverpool tying Fulham (we’ll get to that below), you don’t think Man City feels like they gained 2 points and Klopp feels like he just missed a massive opportunity, and it’s only Week 1!! The sense of urgency for the US equivalent of a Liverpool-Fulham draw in week 1, does not exist. You can make it up over the next 161 or 81 games…take your time…
Further, in defense of athletes who typically have very short shelf lives to their ‘prime earning’ years compared to virtually every other profession, this setup is the equivalent of driving your new car 25,000 miles a year, depreciating the asset at an alarming rate. I think better systems exist where we could still get enough of the games that lead to the community, friendship, rivalry and water cooler talk that sports bring. It could just be accomplished in way less games than what is currently played in American leagues. Player’s careers could be extended and derisked, owners could still make all their money…and most importantly our products on the field, ice, diamond and hardtop could be even better. Essentially shifting to a higher margin business model by limiting supply.
And while the ‘playoff-less’ title contributes to competition in every minute of the season, the biggest structural contributor (economics aside, and I recognize that is a HUGE aside) comes down to one simple concept. Relegation. Unlike in Major League Baseball, where the worst teams in the league have a soft cushy spot waiting for them in next year’s season of mediocrity, the bottom half of the Premier League is fighting for their lives not to land in the dreaded bottom 3 (there are 20 teams in total). Because if you do, you get relegated. Which means you drop to the next league down, the Championship (confusing, we know). And if you’re in the bottom 3 of the Championship league, you drop to League One, and so on. And with each drop comes significant hits to your club’s pocketbook, your player’s salaries, the power of your brand and the stickiness of your fan base. Talk about motivation. But if you’re top 3 in the Championship, League One and so on…promotion awaits. A beautiful system of competition. Funny how aligned incentives (i.e. like not being rewarded for tanking a season) and tremendous competition leads to an amazing product.
So why mention all this? Because it’s Week 1 and we’re not supposed to give a shit about the results. But because the title goes to the winner of the league (not the tournament played at the end of the league) and because the bottom 3 teams are headed for the ‘little kid’s table’…every game matters. Even Week 1. So on to Week 1’s THREE THINGS.
NUMBER 1: Is Liverpool showing their age? Fulham?? Seriously?? One game, I know. And it’s Klopp, he’ll adjust. And this Liverpool unit is made of different material than the pre-Klopp years. But what was that in the first half? Salvaging a 2–2 tie at Craven cottage for this crew is just not good enough. Historically, it’s typically not ideal to play a newly promoted team early in the season. Confidence is high, spirits are strong and the reality of a grueling 38 game EPL season hasn’t set in yet. Brentford beating Arsenal in week 1 last year was more plausible than this, largely because how it happened. Fulham punched Liverpool in the mouth. In typical Klopp fashion, his new young guns don’t immediately take the field but they had to shortly after halftime because the aging beauties were cramping up. Maybe it’s the early start and unseasonal summer heat, but it was soft. Average age for the starting XI for Liverpool on Saturday was only 28.9 (median of 30), which is close to primetime. But with the likes of Thiago, Bobby Firminho, Henderson all looking slow combined with the center half combo in VVD and Matip that no longer resembles the Fort Knox form they shared for years, I’ll be keeping a close eye on when Klopp should be hitting the panic button or finding different rotations with younger studs. It’s definitely not now, but it might be soon.
NUMBER 2: If Man U is going to turn it around, Eric ten Hag needs time. And a lot of it. Speaking of lethargic starts. Sunday’s Man U performance against pesky Brighton was hard to watch. Even if you hate Man U, it was hard to watch. Zero flow. No link up play. Dour body language and facial expressions. It’s like these guys know every single one of them is on the chopping block and they just can’t impose their will on the game. Not that age is the issue, but they routinely look like an over 40-league where the body can no longer do what the mind wants. And it’s hard to watch. As a lifelong Man U fan (mostly due to Roy Kean and Scholsey, plus they were basically the only team on American TV back in the early 90s), I really hope the Glazers have a reckoning and realize this marry-go-round of accomplished managers falling flat on their faces has to stop.
They basically got their ‘next’ guy in Eric ten Hag, a manager who has what it takes. Plays my beloved Total Football. Has the right balance of brutal honesty, tough love and encouragement. But he very clearly needs time. I firmly believe that there were no more than 3 players in the starting XI that he truly wants on the squad. A revamp is needed, and time and money are required. ETH needs to have the time to make Manchester United a destination again for the world’s top talent. It is not right now. Hard to say that this season is even one to care much about, aside from the fact that it can’t be one that’s micromanaged or analyzed. A good buddy and fellow Man U sufferer reminded me this weekend that Klopp finished 8th in his first season (a reason for hope?!?). With time and resources (a luxury the Glazers afford no one), we’ll be watching ETH closely. From my seat, priorities are: 1) find a #6 (or Central Defensive Midfielder). Love the hustle fromMcFred, but let’s just have one. And one that can link up play and reliably break up the counter. See Rodri, Busquets, Kimmich. 2) Once the #6 is found, sort out the formation. 4–2–3–1 is a fools errand, unless you want to play entirely counter-attacking ball, which Man U shouldn’t not be reliant on aside from a couple weeks a year. I believe ETH wants to return to a more classic 4–3–3 and in order to do that, he’ll need very different players. 3) He needs a leader. Harry McGuire seems to be a nice dude. He’s honest and accountable. He’s just not that good. No one in the club today (aside from DeGea, who is not a natural captain) is worthy of the armband. Man U (and ETH) needs that badly, and now.
NUMBER 3: Live at Leeds! America’s new favorite team. If any Yank recently found themselves loving the EPL, but couldn’t figure out how to pick their team. The ‘22/23 season may have made that a lot easier. Without pressure from a Dad telling you about the glory days or a school bus ride that would shun you if you sported the wrong crest, many newcomers of the EPL have to go on their own journey to figure out who will be their squad. With 2.5 Americans in the starting XI and Jesse Marsch pacing the coaches box, Leeds United is about to be the most popular EPL team amongst US fans. After this storied team spent decades in the doldrums to get promoted (see how I tied that all together?) back to prime time, they made a splash coming back to the EPL in the ‘20/21 season. Playing a Marcelo Bielsa-led freeflowing game where their players routinely would outrun all other squads, it produced exciting ball, but troubling results. Relying on outscoring your opponents 7–6 every week is typically not a recipe for success. Especially not for lower budget newly promoted squads. Enter Jesse Marsch (who made himself famous for this halftime speech to rally a very young, but very talented RB Salzburg to not give up at halftime down 3–0 to juggernaut, Liverpool, in Champions League) to come in and do just enough to keep Leeds in the EPL. And this offseason, he was the magnet to draw two young leaders on the USMNT, Tyler Adams and Brendon Aaronson (who forced a game-winning own goal by Wolves) to join Jack Harrison (the .5 in the 2.5) for a team that just picked up a ‘W’ in Week 1 against Wolves. It’s a great start and a squad many of us this side of the pond won’t be able to help but rooting for.
That’s it for Week 1. With music playing a major role in my life, it will in this blog as long as I keep writing. All I could think of for this week, WEEK 1!!!, was the first line from one of my favorite Pearl Jam tunes, Corduroy. I feel this way every year for the EPL.
“The waiting drove me mad…”
See you next week, where I’ll be covering it from London itself with my little guy and I headed to the Arsenal opener for some live analysis.
