The Democratic “Enthusiasm Gap”

GOP turnout is setting records. Democratic turnout isn’t. It looks especially anemic when compared to the 2008 numbers. So, we are being told by the pundits, November could be a disaster for Democrats.

I’ve not checked, so maybe there is some correlation by party between primary turnout and general election turnout, but I don’t think it is something that Democrats need to worry about right now.

2008

In 2008, Democrats were more than ready to get rid of a GOP President who had lied us into a war and busted the budget. The full scale of the economic disaster to come was not obvious during the primary season, but we were beginning to feel the effects. So Democrats were more than primed to “get rid of the bum”.

Then there were our candidates. By any rational analysis, the slate of candidates that started out in the Democratic Party was as good as or way better than the GOP’s “superb” lineup this year. The field narrowed rapidly to three candidates: Clinton, Edwards and Obama. Two potential historic firsts (first woman, first African American) to head a major party’s ticket. Edwards represented the populist, JFK wing of the party with a family story that, until we learned better, resonated. But the race quickly turned into a Clinton/Obama battle.

Democratic delegates are awarded proportionally. Obama’s team realized that if it could roll up those delegates in the caucuses, Clinton wouldn’t be able to catch up. And that’s pretty much what happened. Criticism of Clinton’s “retail political skills” to the contrary, she ended up with more than 18 million votes (the same, a bit more, or a bit less than Obama got, depending on how the count was done). She won the primaries in Arizona, Arkansas, California, Indiana, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, West Virgina. Even when the delegate numbers went against her, she kept on fighting (as she did this year in New Hampshire).

In short, Democrats were desperate to win back the House and the Presidency and were energized by the prospect of either the first woman or the first African American President.

2016

This year, much has changed. The economy is not what we would like, student loans are becoming the equivalent of the mortgage crisis, and Obama has spent his entire Presidency fighting a GOP unwilling to concede anything and committed to obstructing every initiative to the maximum extent possible. But we are very proud of our President. And one of our two candidates is the woman for whom half the party voted in 2008.

Bernie Sanders is, quite simply, not Barack Obama. He is a self-described “democratic socialist” whose lifelong priorities have gained a foothold, fueled by the almost universally disliked Citizens United decision and the size of the inequality gap. Since he can’t accomplish any of his goals without a wave election that would swamp Obama’s 2008 victory, the primaries are a test of his ability to get out the vote. So far, he hasn’t met that challenge.

Why Bernie has been unable to translate his huge crowds into votes I leave for others to explain. Maybe his supporters are the Democrats who didn’t bother to turn out in 2010 or 2012. Maybe many Democrats can’t choose between the two candidates or would be happy with either at the top of the ticket so they’re not motivated to go to caucuses or deal with the hassle of voting.

For the GOP, however, 2016 is very much like 2008 was for Democrats. Republican hatred for President Obama exceeds all rational bounds and has a huge racial component that our punditocracy refuses to acknowledge. Moreover, the GOP has Trump, or, perhaps more accurately, Trump has the GOP. He is a vulgar, racist, know-nothing nativist who has ripped off the protective dogwhistling cover the GOP has used to keep its working class voters in line. He is a master entertainer, an American Berlusconi. He can no more implement his promises than Bernie can implement his, but neither of their bases care. It’s the rhetoric they thrill to.

The GOP has also been blessed, or cursed, with a slate of extreme Conservatives who appeal to the GOP voters who don’t understand why Obama is still President, why the country isn’t the way they want it to be, with non-whites at the back of the bus and women in the kitchen.

Then, of course, there is the sheer spectacle of the GOP race. As Charles Pierce put it so aptly after the Feb. 25, 2016 debate:

“Last night’s Republican brawl at recess was best summed up by some anonymous soul working at the closed-captioning desk at CNN who clearly was completely fed up with the idiotic proceedings on stage and decided to let the hearing-impaired citizens of the United States of America know that he was. (In fact, I hope that the hearing-impaired citizens of the United States of America know how lucky they were last night.) This wasn’t a political debate. This was a pissing contest among men who are worried about the size of their dicks.”

Between the Trump lovers, the Trump haters, and, of course, the Obama haters, there is more than enough drama to turn out GOP voters.

2016 GENERAL ELECTION

So, does any of this tell us what turnout will be like in November? Let’s assume it’s Hillary vs. The Donald. On her plus side will be all of the citizens thrilled to cast their first vote ever for an extraordinarily qualified woman to be POTUS. On the negative side will be all of the Hillary haters, mainly but not exclusively misogynists who use Right Wing slanders to justify their hatred. On his plus side will be the citizens, perhaps many first-time voters, who think their race, their faith, their jobs are on the line. They believe he will bring back the “Golden Age” of the 1950s. On the negative side will be those who think a Trump Presidency would destroy either the GOP or the country or both. I doubt that Trump haters will vote for Clinton or that Clinton haters will vote for Trump. It is more likely that they will simply stay home. (I believe there is some well-known psychological phenomenon that explains why “not voting” feels better than voting for the other party even if the consequences are the same.)

And if the GOP somehow manages to deny Trump the nomination? His voters aren’t likely to turn out for his replacement. But his absence could also lessen the turnout of Democrats who could easily be made complacent by the prospect of an easy win.

I suspect the race will be similar to 2000 and 2004 with the decision depending on which group of haters is larger and how they channel their hate: by staying home or voting for the other party’s candidate.

Finally, there is one huge unknown: the number of citizens who won’t be able to vote because of the GOP-passed Jim Crow laws.

It will be a nail-biter of an election in November. Turnout will not, I think, be a problem.