Prigozhin Pivots at Bakhmut
PMC Wagner is changing the face of modern warfare
Military analysts and commentators are still dizzy after watching Yevgeny Prigozhin’s backflip last week in Bakhmut. On Friday the head of Russia’s elite military contractor, PMC Wagner, threatened to withdraw his troops from the Ukrainian city. His public statement, directed at Russian President Vladimir Putin, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and other top brass, was filled with outrage and heavily-salted with expletives.
In the near-pitch-blackness, he gestures at what appears to be many dead Wagnerians lying on the ground, though they are out of focus and cannot be identified. “Shoigu, Gerasimov, where the fuck is our ammunition?” he demands. “Look at them, for fuck’s sake!”
Swearing angrily, he demands ammunition. They are short of ammo by 70%, he says, and if they had the “normal” amount of ammunition, they would have lost five times less men. “They came here as volunteers,” he rages. “They are dying so that you can luxuriate in your redwood offices. Take note of that!”
Then, on Sunday, Prigozhin abruptly announced that Wagner had received the desperately-needed ammunition and that they would not be withdrawing from Bakhmut after all. “The operation is done,” he said in a recorded message. “The ‘Bakhmut meat grinder’ has completely fulfilled its task.”
He added that the city is 95% under the control of Russian forces.
Before we get into what all this back-and-forth might mean, it’s important to note the response of Ramzan Kadyrov, the head of the Chechen Republic which has sent fighting forces to support the Special Military Operation in Ukraine.
Writing on his Telegram channel, Kadyrov said, “I, like everyone not indifferent to the fate of our country, hate to hear the latest statements by Yevgeny [Prigozhin] and it’s doubly unpleasant that the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense does not comment or does not meet with the leadership of Wagner, PMC, to make any decision or clarification. After all, Prigozhin deserves respect for the invaluable contribution of the Wagnerians to the liberation of the cities of Donbass.”
Kadyrov supported Wagner’s demand for ammunition and said, “If the older brother Prigozhin and Wagner leave, the General Staff will lose an experienced combat unit,” but he added that “our fighters are already ready to move in and occupy the city. It’s a matter of hours.
The Chechen leader also wrote, “By the way, it is not right to film the bodies of killed comrades-in-arms for the sake of public outcry. It is wrong. Let us never do that.”
Speculation runs rampant in the Western mainstream press, whose military analysts and commentators are theorizing about fault-lines in the Kremlin’s power structure, surmising that Prigozhin’s angry words Friday reveal deep rifts between the military contractor and Russia’s military command.
It does seem obvious.
Too obvious, according to Alex at Black Mountain Analysis. In an opinion piece published Sunday, he suggested that Prigozhin’s theatrics might just be that. Theatrics. Or, as they say in Russian, a “maskirovka.” A “deception.”
“We should remember that Artemovsk (Bakhmut) is a grinding operation,” Alex writes. “Its purpose is to suck in as many Ukrainian troops and as much equipment as possible in order to destroy them.”
A desperate plea for ammunition and a threat to withdraw Russian troops might be an attractive lure to dangle before Ukraine’s armed forces.
“Now you need to motivate your enemy to continue sending troops in,” Alex continues, “even though they get annihilated almost as soon as they enter. Hence, you should constantly provoke your opponent and dare him to send more troops to keep up a good fight. Appeal to his ‘man power’, etc.”
Alex believes this is what Prigozhin has been doing all along.
“Later, when there was a danger that Ukraine might abandon Artemovsk,” Alex writes, “Prigozhin changed his tactic and started to cry about ammunition and manpower losses. I do not want to imply that there are no troop losses or no lack of ammunition. This is certainly what you have in war: losses and struggles with equipment and supplies. But usually there is no way on earth that you would communicate that (except of course if you are a drug addicted president who is begging daily on TV for weapons).”
We cannot know, from the blurry images, if the many bodies are real, or if they are, in fact, dead Wagner troops. Prigozhin certainly appeared angry, as one would feel after the loss of so many comrades-in-arms, especially if an adequate supply of ammunition could have prevented their deaths.
But why would Prigozhin make such a loud, public demand? Why all the cursing and why would the Kremlin continue to give so much free rein to an apparent loose cannon?
“I want to be straightforward,” Alex writes. “Nothing will happen within the Russian armed forces (and I count Wagner in here) that is not ordered by the general staff in Moscow. Nothing. Yet Prigozhin is not subordinated to the General Staff. The Wagner military commanders are, but not Prigozhin. He is the head of the civilian administration. Most likely he is directed by the Russian intelligence services.”
Is Alex onto something here? Was Prigozhin out of control, spewing out an entire dictionary of mat — Russian cursing — because he lost his mind? Was he simply full of rage from all the needless death? Or, was this a shrewdly calculated move?
Alex adds, “Coincidentally, Russia started 24 hours later a massive incendiary artillery barrage and aerial bombardment of the remaining parts of Artemovsk in Ukrainian hands. Maybe it was really just a coincidence. Maybe many Ukrainians were lured in by this announcement and died on the spot. Who knows?”
If indeed Prigozhin was engaging in a wild, undisciplined tirade and dishonoring fallen troops by using them like props in his video, then the Kremlin is apt to punish him in some way, Alex believes. He’s not likely to be arrested, but some of his power could be reined in, or he might be publicly humiliated for stepping out of line. How the Kremlin will ultimately respond, or not, remains to be seen.
I also reached out to Russell Bentley for comment. An American expat, Bentley has fought alongside Wagner troops in the Donbass and he holds them in the highest regard. He had this to say via instant messaging:
“Wagner is the most effective and successful unit in the Russian military.”
“In a ‘special military operation’ characterized by retreat, failure and unnecessarily high losses, and above all, mediocre (at best) leadership, Wagner’s successes are the result of not only exemplary leadership from the Front, but the high quality of the cadre, made up in great part of the veterans of the Armies of the Donbass Republics, the most successful and experiences soldiers in the Russian military.”
“Prigozhin’s criticism of the logistic failures and outright betrayal by the Russian MoD are in no way contrived. The shell hunger is not due to a dearth of ammo, it is due to the failure or refusal to send it where it is needed. This problem has been mentioned by commanders of other units, including Commanders Khodakovsky and Kadyrov, as well as confirmed by my friends serving on the Front, in multiple different units and areas.”
I will leave it to you to draw your own conclusions.
Meanwhile, there is another conclusion which seems inescapable: PMC Wagner is changing the face of modern warfare.
In centuries past, armies were raised by the state. Private armies like Wagner are a relatively new development, and though they have already been in use for decades, they are really a 21st century phenomenon. PMCs are already abundant in the United States and other countries. The US has successfully used them in Iraq and Afghanistan, and they have been used in Africa by the British and French. But PMC Wagner is taking it to a new level.
To begin with, PMC Wagner is unburdened by the many bureaucratic costs and delays inherent in state-run armies, which have very rigid hierarchical structures that can bog down decision-making and result in delays that cost armies the element of surprise. This freedom of movement enables Wagner to respond rapidly to developing situations. Its flexible command structure and streamlined decision-making processes allow the private contractor to adapt to changing conditions and unexpected challenges more quickly.
Another advantage Wagner has over traditional armies is its ability to innovate and implement the latest technologies. The company works with leading experts in the field of warfare, cybersecurity and intelligence technology, and it achieves tactical and strategic superiority on the battlefield through its use of modern weapons, communications systems, drones and artificial intelligence. And Prigozhin has also made sure that Wagnerians get psychological and ideology training.
Wagner’s military and its specialists, given this lack of bureaucracy and rapid implementation of the most advanced technologies, are already changing the fundamentals of modern warcraft.
In short, Wagner has revolutionized modern warfare.
About the author:
Deborah Armstrong currently writes about geopolitics with an emphasis on Russia. She previously worked in local TV news in the United States where she won two regional Emmy Awards. In the early 1990’s, Deborah lived in the Soviet Union during its final days and worked as a television consultant at Leningrad Television. You can support Deborah’s writing at Paypal or Patreon, or donate via Substack.
