Must-Must-Must Read: Lee Drutman at Vox on the Shape of the Electorate
There is more value added about the 2016 election in this one Lee Drutman Vox article than in everything published by the WaPo and the NYT national news staffs so far this year!
Lee Drutman: What Donald Trump gets about the electorate: “When Trump speaks out both against immigration and against fellow Republicans who want to cut Social Security…
…he’s speaking out for a lot people. By my count… 24 percent of the US population…. If we add in the folks who want to maintain (not cut) Social Security and decrease immigration, we are now at 40 percent of the total electorate, which I’ll call “populist…. Let’s break the electorate into five categories. In the upper left-hand corner, we have the populists in orange. In the lower left, the liberals in blue. In the upper right, traditional conservatives in light red. In the lower right, business Republicans in dark red… an electorate that looked roughly like this:
Populists: 40.3% Liberals: 32.9% Moderates: 20.5% Business Republicans: 3.8% Political conservatives: 2.4%….
The main takeaway… The two main ideologies in the Republican Party have very tiny support…. So why are they the dominant ideologies among political leaders?… The most obvious hypothesis is that these two views are the views of Republican elites…. If we break down these ideologies by income, then, it’s not surprising that one group stands out. The average reported income among the business Republicans is $69,711 — roughly $30,000 a year more than the populists, the political conservatives, and the liberals, all of whom cluster around the same income….
Finally, we can break down self-reported partisanship…. Populists are… dominant… among all… Republican groups, and especially among those who identify themselves as strong Republicans and independents…. There is no category of Republican in which either of the two main strains in the Republican Party is dominant….
If these two issues turn out to be salient… establishment Republicans — and the business Republican donors who support them — are in a very weak position…
Originally published at www.bradford-delong.com.